Can the Democrats win at least One "Gray" state?

[°Leprechaun]

I vote yes of course:

[°Leprechaun]

The point of the map is to show which states are gray, and for nothing else.
I think that should be obvious.

[°Leprechaun]

Feel free to discuss any of the border states, but for the poll only the gray states. WV? Florida? Missouri? could the Democrat win any of those three?

[Reaganfan]

In 2008, probably not.

[°Leprechaun]

In 2008, probably not.

OK, but do you think that they can win any state other than the obvious (all blue states, Iowa, NH or NM)... such as Florida, Ohio, Missouri, or Colorado, which they must to get to 270?

[Mr. Morden]

If the Democrats win the national popular vote by more than 5%, they would probably win Virginia.  Ditto for Arkansas, if they win nationally by at least 7%.  The other "gray" states would be much harder.

[°Leprechaun]

If the Democrats win the national popular vote by more than 5%, they would probably win Virginia.  Ditto for Arkansas, if they win nationally by at least 7%.  The other "gray" states would be much harder.

So the question is whether they should ignore the South entirely, as some people have said,  or target one or two states such as the two you mention.

[Verily]

Feel free to discuss any of the border states, but for the poll only the gray states. WV? Florida? Missouri? could the Democrat win any of those three?

Virginia and Arkansas are possible. The others, no way. That said, the Democrats would be better off pouring their resources into Ohio, Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado and Nevada (especially because Ohio and Iowa; and Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada look for similar messages).

[SPC]

Can they: Yes (VA and AR)
Will they: No way.

[Padfoot]

Wins in Virginia and Arkansas are definitely within the realm of possibility given the correct candidates (on both sides) and situations that develop between now and the election.  If Hillary is the nominee, we should definitely look for more money and effort to be put into Arkansas.

Having said that though.  Any Democrat that wins one of the gray states will likely have won enough of the red states one this map for it not to matter.  I imagine that any Democrat capable of winning Virginia could easily pull in Ohio, Missouri, and Florida as well.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Most likely AR and VA.

Yep.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I think a Hillary / Clark ticket would have better than even odds at AR.

[adam]

They have an outside chance at carrying Virginia. Other than that, no.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Edwards could carry Virginia and Arkansas in a decent win.

Hillary could get Arkansas. 

Other than that, no. 

[opebo]

In 2008, probably not.

OK, but do you think that they can win any state other than the obvious (all blue states, Iowa, NH or NM)... such as Florida, Ohio, Missouri, or Colorado, which they must to get to 270?

Um.. they can easily win, Ohio, Colorado, Missouri, and Florida (probably in that order of likelihood), but none of the states on your map are at all likely.  Virginia and Arkansas only.

[MaC]

Virginia, Arkansas and Louisiana look like the best chances there

On Further analysis
-on Texas, not bloody likely.  They'll get a lot of votes there, but Texas is solid GOP
-Virginia-most Dems on this forum say it will flip, I doubt it will, but depending on turnout rates and population changes it very well could.
-W.Virginia-nope, by now it's a pretty solid GOP (albeit a new one)
-Missouri-possibly, it's about as moderate as they come. (for almost every presidential race in the past 50 years the person who won Presidency won Missouri)
-Arkansas-doesn't seem to be too out of reach
-Louisiana-will probably spike with the Dems because of the hurricane and such.  It'll definitely go Dem if Paul or Tancredo is nominated.
-Mississippi-though the Dem turnout may increase, it won't go Democratic
-Alabama-not at all
-Georgia-last bastion of the Democrats in the south, but it's staying GOP for the most part
-Tennessee-not too sure about this state
-N.Carolina-much of what can be said about Virginia applies here-except it won't go Democratic
-S.Carolina-no way it'll go Democratic in '08 unless you got a bizarre candidate.
-Kentucky-actually probably possible that is if the Dems get a really high turn-out and they don't have a socially liberal campaign

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If McCain is nominated, VA will not go Democratic. Pickups for the Dems are most likely MO, OH, and IA. I don't think the gray states will go Democratic, unless Romney gets nominated and then I can see VA flipping or Huckabee. John Warner and McCain gets along well and that may do him good in VA.

[Rural Radical]

 I think Arkansas is the best bet followed by Virginia and then North Carolina.

[bullmoose88]

Arkansas first...then Virginia...would have considered louisiana but katrina has changed the game there.

I don't see North Carolina as likely...I actually think if the dems start winning southern states, Tennessee would flip before North Carolina.

[Sam Spade]

Only AR and VA.  KY could go with the right candidate, but I don't see the right candidate in 2008. 

NC has not liked Democrats in Prez elections for quite a while.  TN was deceptively close in 2000, but that state took a right turn in the 1990s and shows no signs of wanting to move back.

[JSojourner]

Not likely, unless the Republicans go too far right OR their candidate implodes.  It could happen.  But the Demo candidate could also implode.

If the Democrat performs well as a candidate and captures some of the public imagination, projects real vision and so forth... then Virginia and Arkansas are not out of the realm of possibility.

If the above happens and the GOP has a particularly weak or divisive candidate -- or if he/she implodes --

Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, Louisiana and Kentucky are all within the realm of possibility. To win any of the other states, the Democrat would need to have an opponent who sleeps with dead men or live boys.

In short, John Edwards, Barack Obama, Chris Dodd, Bill Richardson or Hillary Clinton could beat Jeffrey Dahmer or John Wayne Gacy in Alabama.  But not David Duke, Ted Haggard or Michael Savage.

(and you can put Utah, Idaho and Indiana in that grey state column, too.  Montana, Wyoming, Alaska and the Dakotas will go Democrat before Indiana ever does.)

[Queen Mum Inks.LWC]

Perhaps VA, otherwise, probably not.