PA GOV CENTER STREET PAC SHAPIRO 62/38

[wbrocks67]

You have to hand it to them — these guys are trying really hard in the "worst pollster of the cycle" competition, which is admittedly tougher this cycle than it ever has been.

We need more Democratic junk polls like this to counter the narrative coming from the absolute wave of Republican junk polls this cycle so I salute what they're doing.

There is no "absolute wave of Republican junk polls this cycle," this is ridiculous.

how is there not? The majority of polls we're getting are from GOP-aligned or GOP-adjacent groups. Trafalgar, InsiderAdvantage, Wick, co/efficient, Cygnal, etc. Those are among the majority of polls we're getting outside of like regular Emerson, Suffolk, and Marist polls.

The difference is that those polls are generally off by 3-4 points in GOp direction

Center street is on another level, and there was a recent investigation into their methodology which found it….sketchy to say the least

Center Street is junk too. But there are still many more GOP junk pollsters coming out of the wood work than ones like Center Street.

[Senator Incitatus]

You have to hand it to them — these guys are trying really hard in the "worst pollster of the cycle" competition, which is admittedly tougher this cycle than it ever has been.

We need more Democratic junk polls like this to counter the narrative coming from the absolute wave of Republican junk polls this cycle so I salute what they're doing.

There is no "absolute wave of Republican junk polls this cycle," this is ridiculous.

I'm impressed by the level of shameless and ignorant assertions Democrats have made about Republican bias this cycle.  To actually cry about 'waves of Republican Junk Polls' in a thread discussing a fraudulent poll that Democrats released. 

It is absolutely ridiculous, especially considering Cygnal actually seems to be one of the more reasonable pollsters (alongside its Democratic counterpart, Data for Progress).

They're going to look a lot like the 2012 Romney unskewers in a couple weeks.

[Calthrina950]

You have to hand it to them — these guys are trying really hard in the "worst pollster of the cycle" competition, which is admittedly tougher this cycle than it ever has been.

We need more Democratic junk polls like this to counter the narrative coming from the absolute wave of Republican junk polls this cycle so I salute what they're doing.

There is no "absolute wave of Republican junk polls this cycle," this is ridiculous.

I'm impressed by the level of shameless and ignorant assertions Democrats have made about Republican bias this cycle.  To actually cry about 'waves of Republican Junk Polls' in a thread discussing a fraudulent poll that Democrats released. 

It is absolutely ridiculous, especially considering Cygnal actually seems to be one of the more reasonable pollsters (alongside its Democratic counterpart, Data for Progress).

They're going to look a lot like the 2012 Romney unskewers in a couple weeks.

Didn't Karl Rove have a meltdown when Fox News projected Ohio for Obama in 2012? Many Democrats seem to have this Rove kind of mentality, and might still be in denial on Election Day, even as the results come in.

[Dani Rose]

You have to hand it to them — these guys are trying really hard in the "worst pollster of the cycle" competition, which is admittedly tougher this cycle than it ever has been.

We need more Democratic junk polls like this to counter the narrative coming from the absolute wave of Republican junk polls this cycle so I salute what they're doing.

There is no "absolute wave of Republican junk polls this cycle," this is ridiculous.

I'm impressed by the level of shameless and ignorant assertions Democrats have made about Republican bias this cycle.  To actually cry about 'waves of Republican Junk Polls' in a thread discussing a fraudulent poll that Democrats released.  

It is absolutely ridiculous, especially considering Cygnal actually seems to be one of the more reasonable pollsters (alongside its Democratic counterpart, Data for Progress).

They're going to look a lot like the 2012 Romney unskewers in a couple weeks.

Didn't Karl Rove have a meltdown when Fox News projected Ohio for Obama in 2012? Many Democrats seem to have this Rove kind of mentality, and might still be in denial on Election Day, even as the results come in.

I remember those days, and Republicans at the time were trying to unskew extremely unbiased, mainstream polling from the major firms of the day. Said firms fell through the floor after 2016, and what we've largely been left with is a soul-sucking void of absolutely Lovecraftian crosstabs and blatant partisan bias. You practically have to unskew until one of the major polling outfits finally emerges, blinking in terror, from its cave.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Even if Fetterman loses Whitmer and Shapiro are gonna win so

[morgieb]

Big if true

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mastriano hasn't run a single ad of course IA down by this much

[Duke of York]

Mastriano hasn't run a single ad of course IA down by this much

i hope this is the final margin, the coattails would likely be huge.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Obviously this poll is no doubt wrong, but I actually do think most people tend to underestimate just how horrific of a candidate Mastriano is. We're talking about a guy who barely has enough campaign funds to even pay staffers, hasn't ran any ads as a result, has yet to "win" a single week of coverage (probably not even a day) and whose entire campaign is based around pet culture war issues instead of talking about inflation, crime and all that. Not to mention he's probably the worst possible candidate to take on Shapiro, Shapiro's 2020 performance showed that he actually does have a bit of a following amongst ancestrally D Trump voters while a lot of Biden voters in the Philly suburbs were still voting R downballot against him. Rather than run a candidate who could capitalize on that weakness and find some appeal to the ancestral D swing voters they went with the single worst possible candidate for appeal to Philly suburbanites and who isn't appealing to Trump Democrats either...the worst of all worlds and an awful campaigner to boot. And yet this forum developed a meme of sorts that he's being underestimated or that it doesn't matter because "muh national environment" or "remember Youngkin" as if Youngkin was even remotely comparable in candidate quality and didn't run an amazing campaign capitalizing on Dem weaknesses. I don't think Youngkin would've done so well if he just spent his whole campaign going on right-wing podcasts screeching about how Trump was robbed of the election and spreading anti-vax propaganda and praising the Confederacy.

Now yeah perhaps the percentage of the state that agrees with his culture war issues and actually likes his Trumpist hardlinerism is actually higher than 38%, but we might learn with this vote what the actual R floor in Pennsylvania is.