NYT/Siena: KS-03 Davids +14, NV-01 Tied, NM-02 Vasquez +1, PA-08 Cartwright +6

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Democrats should just nominate as many Native candidates as possible. Peltola and Davids (if the polling is accurate) are set to have some of the best over performances of the night.

Also, the NM-02 result is interesting considering Cook just moved that race to Lean R from Tossup. The NYT's live poll in that district back in 2018 pretty much nailed the margin, and it was a much redder district then.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-poll-ks03-1.html

[Roll Roons]

I wish we'd seen a poll from a competitive seat in CA/NY/OR (or CT-05/RI-02) for comparison. Maybe there is something to the prospect that blue state Republicans are doing well because there's no real risk of abortion restrictions.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585790988496547841

I either never saw that poll or forgot all about it. If they actually underestimated Davids, then maybe the KS-03 numbers aren't so weird after all, given the swings mentioned above me.

sorry there's a level of wishcasting for my fellow lesbian here

Whoa congrats on being the second person from Mankato to post here! You ever been to shows at the What's Up Lounge? Are The Underground and Blue Bricks still around?

[Skill and Chance]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585790988496547841

The funny thing is the better than Biden in KS-3 is completely consistent with Olmsted, Lancaster counties in the MN-1 and NE-1 special elections.

Yes, Johnson County following the path of Denver and Washington, D.C. suburbs over the 2010's seems totally plausible IMO.  The abortion referendum could be a strong indication of Kansas/neighboring Plains states getting ready to go left.

[wbrocks67]

I'm more shocked than anything that Yvette Herrell is getting so much cross Dem/Biden support despite the fact that she literally voted to deny the 2020 election results lol.

Her favorables are in the tank compared to Vasquez, too, despite him only leading by 1 pt.

I was very confused at the write-up on NYT's website about these polls when I saw them. These are not really indicative of a red wave, or even the R+4 result from their national poll.

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585790988496547841

I either never saw that poll or forgot all about it. If they actually underestimated Davids, then maybe the KS-03 numbers aren't so weird after all, given the swings mentioned above me.

sorry there's a level of wishcasting for my fellow lesbian here

Whoa congrats on being the second person from Mankato to post here! You ever been to shows at the What's Up Lounge? Are The Underground and Blue Bricks still around?

Thanks for the welcome. Yeah, they sure are. I haven't had the pleasure of the first, though; live shows kind of overload the circuits for me a little.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585790988496547841

I either never saw that poll or forgot all about it. If they actually underestimated Davids, then maybe the KS-03 numbers aren't so weird after all, given the swings mentioned above me.

sorry there's a level of wishcasting for my fellow lesbian here

Whoa congrats on being the second person from Mankato to post here! You ever been to shows at the What's Up Lounge? Are The Underground and Blue Bricks still around?

Thanks for the welcome. Yeah, they sure are. I haven't had the pleasure of the first, though; live shows kind of overload the circuits for me a little.

I do nostalgia day trips to Mankato from time to time, actually did one just about two months ago, but I never really have time to check out those places, and sort of feel like I might be too old for them now anyway since I associate them with the college crowd. Sad to see that my liquor store has closed although there's a very high turnover of businesses near campus and the student apartment complex where I lived.

And as a lesbian ever been to Mettler's? That was totally my place in college, LOL.

[Dani Rose]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585790988496547841

I either never saw that poll or forgot all about it. If they actually underestimated Davids, then maybe the KS-03 numbers aren't so weird after all, given the swings mentioned above me.

sorry there's a level of wishcasting for my fellow lesbian here

Whoa congrats on being the second person from Mankato to post here! You ever been to shows at the What's Up Lounge? Are The Underground and Blue Bricks still around?

Thanks for the welcome. Yeah, they sure are. I haven't had the pleasure of the first, though; live shows kind of overload the circuits for me a little.

I do nostalgia day trips to Mankato from time to time, actually did one just about two months ago, but I never really have time to check out those places, and sort of feel like I might be too old for them now anyway since I associate them with the college crowd. Sad to see that my liquor store has closed although there's a very high turnover of businesses near campus and the student apartment complex where I lived.

And as a lesbian ever been to Mettler's? That was totally my place in college, LOL.

LMFAO those days are over for me now, but I may or may not be familiar, and that's where that sentence ends in the interest of decorum.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1585832402923839489

[wbrocks67]

It almost feels like NYT wrote the article mostly before the poll results even came in, tbh.

Either way, what's interesting this cycle is that House polls have generally been very good for Democrats, and seem to be on the "2020 redux-ish" side. But who knows if house polls will be incredibly wrong again.

[wbrocks67]

FWIW, their polls of these districts in 2018 were as follows:

NM-02: R+1 (actual result - D+2)
PA-08: D+12 (actual result - D+9)
KS-03: D+9 (actual result - D+10)
Nevada (whole state, didn't poll any house district): R+2 (actual result - D+5)

[wbrocks67]

also, it appears that they asked gov/sen questions too? not sure if they're getting released though

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1585794186892038144

[Devils30]

Trust your work Nate Cohn! The media doom and gloom narrative was ridiculous and probably hurt most in NY.

[wbrocks67]

Trust your work Nate Cohn! The media doom and gloom narrative was ridiculous and probably hurt most in NY.

NYT/Siena nailed this race both in 2018 and 2022. Pretty crazy

[SevenEleven]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

Hi. Just wondering if you're getting tired of being wrong constantly.

[Alben Barkley]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

Hi. Just wondering if you're getting tired of being wrong constantly.

I think we might finally never see him again tbh.

Just like IceSpear before him, he was SO overconfident and SO wrong in SUCH a smug, unbearable way this time that he really ruined any chance of ever showing his face around here again without being mocked by a mob.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

Hi. Just wondering if you're getting tired of being wrong constantly.

I think we might finally never see him again tbh.

Just like IceSpear before him, he was SO overconfident and SO wrong in SUCH a smug, unbearable way this time that he really ruined any chance of ever showing his face around here again without being mocked by a mob.

We can probably also throw ElectionsGuy and Politician into that category as well.

[Sestak]

Wait, these were basically all correct? Overshot Cartwright (and Davids slightly), and undershot Titus, but compared to how House polling has been as of late, this is legitimately very impressive.

[GeorgiaModerate]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

Hi. Just wondering if you're getting tired of being wrong constantly.

It got bumped, just not for the reason he thought.

[Spectator]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

Hi. Just wondering if you're getting tired of being wrong constantly.

I think we might finally never see him again tbh.

Just like IceSpear before him, he was SO overconfident and SO wrong in SUCH a smug, unbearable way this time that he really ruined any chance of ever showing his face around here again without being mocked by a mob.

He owned up to how wrong he was. Give him a break.

[wbrocks67]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

Hi. Just wondering if you're getting tired of being wrong constantly.

I think we might finally never see him again tbh.

Just like IceSpear before him, he was SO overconfident and SO wrong in SUCH a smug, unbearable way this time that he really ruined any chance of ever showing his face around here again without being mocked by a mob.

This is it. We're all wrong sometimes on this forum, but a lot of these blue avatars were just so *rude* and *smug* about everything this cycle and had no reason to be.

[Figueira]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

Hi. Just wondering if you're getting tired of being wrong constantly.

I think we might finally never see him again tbh.

Just like IceSpear before him, he was SO overconfident and SO wrong in SUCH a smug, unbearable way this time that he really ruined any chance of ever showing his face around here again without being mocked by a mob.

You're remembering IceSpear wrong. He was only really confident about the primary, and only mildly confident about the general. When he came back, he quickly became hated because of a bizarre hatred of the WWC, not because of 2016 overconfidence.

[Lief 🗽]

The NYT article writing up these polls is even funnier in retrospect. They had a huge story in their hands: Democrats were weathering the storm across the country, and poised to win pivotal swing seats! But they were so blinded by ideology, their hatred of the Democrats, and GOP spin, that they ignored the polls completely, and published the same rote “red tsunami” story everyone else was.

[Sestak]

One of those (and there will be many) that will get bumped on Nov. 9.

Hi. Just wondering if you're getting tired of being wrong constantly.

I think we might finally never see him again tbh.

Just like IceSpear before him, he was SO overconfident and SO wrong in SUCH a smug, unbearable way this time that he really ruined any chance of ever showing his face around here again without being mocked by a mob.

You're remembering IceSpear wrong. He was only really confident about the primary, and only mildly confident about the general. When he came back, he quickly became hated because of a bizarre hatred of the WWC, not because of 2016 overconfidence.

He is not talking about 2016. He is talking about 2019 (from which IceSpear has not made a return other than a brief Super Tuesday cameo).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Native Americans do well in H Eday