2004 Presidential (972):
Above is USElectionAtlas's presidential prediction map for 2004. Hover over each state for unnecessary details, but the only state it got wrong was my home state of Ohio, sadly, and that was enough for a Tossup/Tilt D election to be an R hold.
2006 Senate (465)
High confidence seats: All correct
Lean confidence seats: All correct
Tossup seats: Of four tossups, they were forecasted a 3-1 D with Virginia as an R hold. However, Virginia flipped for Democrats - by a margin of 0.36% and only 9329 votes. This mirrors the gubernatorial forecast as excellent.
2006 Gubernatorial (317)
High confidence states: All correct
Lean confidence states: All correct
Tossup states: Of four tossups, all forecasted Dem wins, only Minnesota was wrong and an R hold. It was also the only gubernatorial race less than 1 point.
Overall Atlas did an excellent job forecasting 2006-GUB.
2007 gubernatorial: None of the 3 states were tossups and all were correct.
2008 Presidential:
Atlas woefully underestimated how far the GOP would fall in the wake of the disastrous Bush administration.
An inexplicable Republican trend in NM and NV, misplaced confidence in NC, IN, and to a lesser extent MT, the idea that the pacific northwest would even be competitive...
Some of these mistakes are excusable. Indiana was a fluke for example. But it seems the magic Atlas had 2 year prior had faded. It seems that lots of people made predictions in the summer before the Wall St. meltdowns and maybe even before the baffling selection of Sarah Palin and never updated them.
However the Senate and Gubernatorial matchups were much more accurately predicted
2008 Senate
High confidence: All correct
Lean confidence: All correct
Tossups: All correct for Democrats, however Minnesota was sheer luck
2008 Gubernatorial
High confidence: All correct
Lean confidence: All correct
Tossups: Both correct for Democrats
2009 Gubernatorial: both correct for Republicans
2010 Senate:
High confidence: All correct
Lean confidence: All correct
Tossups: Both Colorado and Nevada were incorrectly forecasted as GOP flips, but Bennett and Reid both survived the Tea Party wave. The eastern tossups (3 midwestern GOP flips and Manchin holding on in WV) were correct.
2010 Gubernatorial:
High confidence: All correct
Lean confidence: All correct
Tossups: 9 states, of which only Illinois was wrong (Quinn survived the wave)
2011: all 4 states correct with confidence