PA: Franklin and Marshall College: Shapiro (D) +23

[Tender Branson]

New Poll: Pennsylvania Governor by Franklin and Marshall College on 2022-10-23

Summary: D: 56%, R: 33%, I: 5%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[Calthrina950]

Shapiro won't win by this much, but if he did, I think he would carry Fetterman across the finish line.

[politicallefty]

At best, I think Shapiro can get around Wolf 2018 numbers. I think reaching Rendell 2006 (or surpassing) is impossible with the current political paradigm and climate.

[Alben Barkley]

We need to shut down the polling industry until we can figure out what the hell is going on.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Remember though the GOP is literally campaigning for Shapiro (as a contrast to make Fetterman seem radical).

[Alben Barkley]

Remember though the GOP is literally campaigning for Shapiro (as a contrast to make Fetterman seem radical).

And STILL he is not up by 23 points and 18 points more than Fetterman. That is just absurd. Maybe this would be believable in the 90s. MAYBE. Even in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, where I made my name on this site by predicting a Beshear win, it was razor thin and came down to the wire due to polarization that didn't exist even just a few years earlier when his dad destroyed his competition. So yeah, I've seen firsthand how even in red let alone purple states it's possible for gubernatorial candidates to defy political gravity. But it's become increasingly less common and increasingly tight when and if it happens. I have zero doubt Shapiro will win, but there is just no way it's going to be by THIS much and THIS far removed from the Senate results.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Remember though the GOP is literally campaigning for Shapiro (as a contrast to make Fetterman seem radical).

And STILL he is not up by 23 points and 18 points more than Fetterman. That is just absurd. Maybe this would be believable in the 90s. MAYBE. Even in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, where I made my name on this site by predicting a Beshear win, it was razor thin and came down to the wire due to polarization that didn't exist even just a few years earlier when his dad destroyed his competition. So yeah, I've seen firsthand how even in red let alone purple states it's possible for gubernatorial candidates to defy political gravity. But it's become increasingly less common and increasingly tight when and if it happens. I have zero doubt Shapiro will win, but there is just no way it's going to be by THIS much and THIS far removed from the Senate results.

Oh yeah this was in the 90s Mastriano would be lucky to clear 15% in the primary, and if he somehow did win, and faced a popular attorney general in a swing state, he'd be absolutely destroyed, probably by more than 23%.

[Eraserhead]

This would be a hilarious result. I don't think he'll win by that much though.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Not happening.  But I've said it before: if Mastriano somehow wins here, I would consider it one of the greatest (and most terrifying) upsets in the history of American elections.

Hell, I just saw my first pro-Mastriano ad on TV yesterday and it was the most milquetoast humdrum political ad ever.  He wasn't even in it, not even an "I'm Doug Mastriano, and I approve..", something that's rather unusual for a non-attack ad

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Holy sh**t hahahahah

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Not happening.  But I've said it before: if Mastriano somehow wins here, I would consider it one of the greatest (and most terrifying) upsets in the history of American elections.

Hell, I just saw my first pro-Mastriano ad on TV yesterday and it was the most milquetoast humdrum political ad ever.  He wasn't even in it, not even an "I'm Doug Mastriano, and I approve..", something that's rather unusual for a non-attack ad

That's a requirement only for ads for federal office, it was added as part of a federal campaign finance law. State offices aren't covered under that law.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's like they aren't even trying anymore

[Sir Mohamed]

Shapiro may indeed get 56% of the vote. I don't think he'll win by 23 pts. though. Anyways, this race is pretty much Safe D.

[wbrocks67]

Remember though the GOP is literally campaigning for Shapiro (as a contrast to make Fetterman seem radical).

And STILL he is not up by 23 points and 18 points more than Fetterman. That is just absurd. Maybe this would be believable in the 90s. MAYBE. Even in the Kentucky gubernatorial race, where I made my name on this site by predicting a Beshear win, it was razor thin and came down to the wire due to polarization that didn't exist even just a few years earlier when his dad destroyed his competition. So yeah, I've seen firsthand how even in red let alone purple states it's possible for gubernatorial candidates to defy political gravity. But it's become increasingly less common and increasingly tight when and if it happens. I have zero doubt Shapiro will win, but there is just no way it's going to be by THIS much and THIS far removed from the Senate results.

I don't think Shapiro is winning by 23, but there is precedence in PA to be winning by high double digits. Governors races in PA have been funky - again, just look at Wolf - he won by 11% in 2014, an actual wave red year, and then was able to win by 18% in 2018. Wagner was a bad candidate, but Mastriano is even worse, since Wagner had an actual campaign infrastructure. Just saying it's not impossible/unheard of