Analysis: Crime is more of an "issue" because Fox/right wing media is making it one

[wbrocks67]

Interesting thread. Crime exists, obviously. But it is no more violent right now than any other time this year. And yet suddenly we're filled with the narrative that "Crime" is a top issue.

Mostly because the right wing media-sphere and GOP politicians are crafting that narrative, and others are following suit.

https://twitter.com/pbump/status/1585358463575724047

[DaleCooper]

I think the media has just tapped into the general sense nationwide that things are so much more crazy right now than they used to be. It's something that I've felt. I don't feel safe going for a walk at night anymore, which is something that I used to do all the time, alone, and without a second thought. If we take it for granted that crime is not on the rise, and it is the media that is to blame, I actually think much more blame should be placed on local media for this. At least around here, every local news headline from a source within a hundred miles is something related to murder, kidnapping, assault, child neglect/abduction/molestation/assault/abuse/murder/you name it, high-speed police chases, officers getting shot, hard drug trafficking, human trafficking, and any other horrible crime you can think of. I have heard anecdotally that it's the same many other places in the nation. Also to blame are the streaming services and networks for turning every single true crime story, no matter how famous or obscure, into a miniseries.

But again, none of this would be popular if it wasn't exactly what Americans wanted to see.

[Hammy]

What a shock, the "leftist" outlets--corporate-centrist MSNBC and tabloid trash CNN--are echoing Fox talking points just like they always do

[TML]

Another reason is that Democrats don't effectively fight back against Republican narratives on this and other issues. One effective way to fight back would be to point out Republican opposition to gun control as one way they wouldn't be effective in reducing crime (in fact, there are polls which state that many Republicans/right-wingers think nothing can be done to significantly reduce mass shootings).

[Saint Milei]

what gated suburb did this guy tweet this absurd comment from

[Mr. Smith]

This has been the case since forever.

[Lief 🗽]

I think the media has just tapped into the general sense nationwide that things are so much more crazy right now than they used to be. It's something that I've felt. I don't feel safe going for a walk at night anymore, which is something that I used to do all the time, alone, and without a second thought. If we take it for granted that crime is not on the rise, and it is the media that is to blame, I actually think much more blame should be placed on local media for this. At least around here, every local news headline from a source within a hundred miles is something related to murder, kidnapping, assault, child neglect/abduction/molestation/assault/abuse/murder/you name it, high-speed police chases, officers getting shot, hard drug trafficking, human trafficking, and any other horrible crime you can think of. I have heard anecdotally that it's the same many other places in the nation. Also to blame are the streaming services and networks for turning every single true crime story, no matter how famous or obscure, into a miniseries.

But again, none of this would be popular if it wasn't exactly what Americans wanted to see.

100% agree with this. I and many other people I know consume literally zero right-wing media and still feel much less safe out and about than we did 2-3 years ago (not to defend right-wing media in any way).

[Bootes Void]

Where I live, people are far more concerned about public safety and crime than let’s say 10 years ago for example, so I doubt this is solely due to Fox News coverage but the general vibe in general

[If my soul was made of stone]

I also-- I'm not saying I love the movie but, in a way I admire Kung Fu Panda. It appears just-- a stupid cartoon, no, it's-- what I admire in the movie is the following, everyone noticed it: On the one hand, the movie mobilizes, you know, all that-- let's call it, uh, oriental military mystique: kung fu fight, warrior discipline, all that, stuff. At the same time the movie is totally ironic, making fun of its own ideology. What is so fascinating is that, although the movie makes fun of its own ideology all the time, the ideology survives, and this is how cynicism functions.

[Crumpets]

I think the media has just tapped into the general sense nationwide that things are so much more crazy right now than they used to be. It's something that I've felt. I don't feel safe going for a walk at night anymore, which is something that I used to do all the time, alone, and without a second thought. If we take it for granted that crime is not on the rise, and it is the media that is to blame, I actually think much more blame should be placed on local media for this. At least around here, every local news headline from a source within a hundred miles is something related to murder, kidnapping, assault, child neglect/abduction/molestation/assault/abuse/murder/you name it, high-speed police chases, officers getting shot, hard drug trafficking, human trafficking, and any other horrible crime you can think of. I have heard anecdotally that it's the same many other places in the nation. Also to blame are the streaming services and networks for turning every single true crime story, no matter how famous or obscure, into a miniseries.

But again, none of this would be popular if it wasn't exactly what Americans wanted to see.

100% agree with this. I and many other people I know consume literally zero right-wing media and still feel much less safe out and about than we did 2-3 years ago (not to defend right-wing media in any way).

IDK, maybe it's down to the part of the country you're in, but I really haven't gotten this feeling at all recently. Or maybe more specifically, I'd say we're back to "pre-COVID" levels of comfort going out. The only change I've noticed is just that there tend to be fewer other people out thanks to fewer people working downtown and lots of malls closing in the last couple of years, which, I guess can make it sometimes feel weird in an eerie way, but not in an unsafe-feeling way. Also I'm not a demographic who has a lot of the worries that people of other demographics might have if they were to walk around a downtown at night.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

...the general sense nationwide that things are so much more crazy right now than they used to be. It's something that I've felt.

Americans have talked about how, only a few years prior, things were so much calmer or made so much more sense, since at least the 1960s, and probably forever. This "general sense" is meaningless.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Is Crime Actually Going Up? We Ask Detroit
Detroit's Open Data Portal includes an RMS incidents file which you can download for personal analysis. I do not recommended it for scholarly purposes because it is location anonymized to intersections, and it requires a little wrangling in the time field (last I checked it was in UTC so it takes a bit of work to put it into EST). It was last updated in the middle of this month, but as October is not yet finished, analyzing October numbers would be meaningless. The time zone issue I mentioned is almost immaterial as that is a slight inaccuracy of 4-5 hours for month-long periods. I nevertheless chose Detroit as it is my previous locale and I am more familiar with its ODO than I am with, say, Seattle's, which should also be available for personal research purposes.

All Incidents
As we would expect in warmer months, the total number of RMS incidents each month was higher from July to September than it was earlier in the year. Out of the past five years, 2022 up to September is about in the middle, but it has registered a higher total number of incidents this year than in the past two "COVID" years. (60,337 versus 58,535 and 57,800)

Violent Crime
Violent crime is actually lower this year than the past two years. This applies for the sum of FBI Part I crimes (Homicide/Agg Assault/Sexual Assault/Robbery), as well as homicide and aggravated assault isolated as their own group. (Jan-Sep there were 7,976 FBI Part I violent incidents; during that same period in 2020 it was 8,929 and 9,033 in 2021)

Property Crime
The FBI Part I Property Crime count is comprised of larceny, burglary, arson, and stolen vehicle offenses. This year overall has been higher than the previous years, but lower than 2018 or 2019. Interestingly, July-September has seen a pretty big surge in property crime that we're not seeing in violent crime, and which has been stronger than in other years. As September these days in Michigan is warmer than it used to be, this may have some impact; as well, the end of COVID regulations/fears would likely result in greater commercial activity and nightlife. I would also speculate that maybe inflation or other economic concerns have encouraged greater incidents of theft, but that is unsupported as of yet.

Weapons Offenses
The number of weapons offenses is lower than the past two years, but higher than 2018-2019. This is an inverse of property crime, which has increased from the COVID period but is still lower than in normal years.

Overall
Overall, the city seems to be physically safer than during COVID, which saw increases in violent and weapons offenses, but the incidence of property crimes is higher, probably a reflection of increasing activity downtown and a resulting increase in the number of potential "victims" (both humans and vehicles). I did not examine individual offense types, but an increase in burglaries, hypothetically, could also reflect the end of work from home/more empty houses. These findings contradict both a narrative of CITIES IN CHAOS, but also challenges a narrative that "everything is fine".

[OSR stands with Israel]

https://www.kgw.com/amp/article/news/crime/gun-violence/portland-shootings-homicides-report-analysis-gangs/283-273aedf1-4908-4cfd-ad0c-21c2d9272f01

https://www.koin.com/news/portland/portland-city-council-addresses-eye-popping-annual-crime-report/amp/

Yes this is only an issue cause Fox News makes it an issue .

[DaleCooper]

...the general sense nationwide that things are so much more crazy right now than they used to be. It's something that I've felt.

Americans have talked about how, only a few years prior, things were so much calmer or made so much more sense, since at least the 1960s, and probably forever. This "general sense" is meaningless.

The sentiment is eternal, but it crops up at certain times, and that is definitely not meaningless, it shows up when it does for a reason. I'm pretty sure this iteration started with the endless rioting of 2020. That's around about when I started to feel it.

[MasterJedi]

Crime is still WAY down from where it was when the Boomers were young and doing record breaking crime while getting away with “harmless fun” that would be considered felonies today.

Crime is how you as the disparity of wealth is where it was in the gilded age. Poverty will turn the life of most good men bad.

[Mr. Illini]

Crime actually is up a good amount in Chicago and it started with 2020/the pandemic. It is still lower than it was 20-30 years ago.

Another dynamic, as opposed to prior upticks, is that it seems to be hitting the "safe" neighborhoods harder. There has been noticeably more violent crime in neighborhoods that typically have lower violent crime rates. This definitely impacts the coverage/reaction it gets.

I also think some folks reactions has been a little much. I know several people who have moved out of the city, stopped taking public transport, etc, which I do not feel the need to do.

[Lambsbread]

Well yeah, all media benefits from driving fear of crime. My parents are poisoned by Fox News and local news reporting nonstop on violent crime. Every time I go to Philly, my mom acts like I'm going to Kabul or something.

[Del Tachi]

There could be a real uptick in crime that media are reporting on.  Annual crime statistics aren't reported until a year later (i.e., 2021 numbers are just being finalized now.)

If crime is truly up, media reports would be one of the first places we'd see evidence of it. 

[Joe Republic]

I think the media has just tapped into the general sense nationwide that things are so much more crazy right now than they used to be. It's something that I've felt. I don't feel safe going for a walk at night anymore, which is something that I used to do all the time, alone, and without a second thought.

100% agree with this. I and many other people I know consume literally zero right-wing media and still feel much less safe out and about than we did 2-3 years ago (not to defend right-wing media in any way).

Equally anecdotally, I too have noticed a marked increase in paranoia about personal safety in other people as well.  All based on feelings too, of course.

[Mercenary]

I dont think its different than anytime this year but it does seem a lot worse than say 10 years ago.
Car breakins, thefts and the like are more common. But with falling support of the police and some kind of fetish for letting drug addicta do whatever they want while criticizing anyone who speaks out about it as "lacking compassion" it is really no surprise. The people who let it happen are the real ones lacking conpassion. If you are living on the street doing drugs then you either need to accept help or be forced into rehab. No one shoild be allowed to stay on the street. Drug zombies roaming the city driving up crime should not be tolerated. People seeing these drug tents throughout their cities, even in nicer suburbs and country towns, seeing the filth spread like a virus... crime is certainly a big issue. I dont know about "violent" crime but when you cannot park at trailheads without fear thst your windows will be smashed in by some drug addict looking for loose change, that is indeed a major issue. And you have the pro crime idiots that will blame the victim instead of the criminal, instead of voting out idiot politicians thst make pro crime laws or prosecutors that dont go after criminals or judges thst just let the criminals walk away free, they tell the victim that they should stay away from that area or keep their car doors unlocked and blame them for leaving their bag in the car for 10 minutes while picking up groceries. The pro crime cultists are every bit as dangerous, if not moreso, than the MAGA cultists.

[DaleCooper]

I think the media has just tapped into the general sense nationwide that things are so much more crazy right now than they used to be. It's something that I've felt. I don't feel safe going for a walk at night anymore, which is something that I used to do all the time, alone, and without a second thought.

100% agree with this. I and many other people I know consume literally zero right-wing media and still feel much less safe out and about than we did 2-3 years ago (not to defend right-wing media in any way).

Equally anecdotally, I too have noticed a marked increase in paranoia about personal safety in other people as well.  All based on feelings too, of course.

And what are those feelings based on? Surely it's not all based on Fox News agonizing about Portland.

[sting in the rafters]

All I’m gonna say is if you asked 1000 random Philadelphians whether they are more afraid of being a victim of police brutality or violent crime/carjacking you people are NOT going to like the answers.

[Joe Republic]

I think the media has just tapped into the general sense nationwide that things are so much more crazy right now than they used to be. It's something that I've felt. I don't feel safe going for a walk at night anymore, which is something that I used to do all the time, alone, and without a second thought.

100% agree with this. I and many other people I know consume literally zero right-wing media and still feel much less safe out and about than we did 2-3 years ago (not to defend right-wing media in any way).

Equally anecdotally, I too have noticed a marked increase in paranoia about personal safety in other people as well.  All based on feelings too, of course.

And what are those feelings based on? Surely it's not all based on Fox News agonizing about Portland.

You tell me!  I don't know where you're getting this stuff from.  I feel just fine.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

That must have been my paranoia that saw a random person smash the glass door of the midtown bar I was in with a pipe for no apparent reason.

I'm not exactly scared for my personal safety (more so in NYC than other cities) except when I am in the subway, but there seems to be an exponential rise in mental illness that may not even lead to me being personally victimized but is just unpleasant to be around.

Crime in NYC is overrated, but certainly not in Philadelphia where school closures did immense damage, reversing decades of progress. A relief that media finally starts recognizing it.

[Beet]

According to the FBI UCR, the national crime rate plummeted from 1993 to 2000 (the Clinton years), dropped again from 2006 to 2014, increased from 2014-2016 [ but only back to 2010 levels ], and have stayed relatively steady since then, with minor drops in 2018-19 and a minor uptick in 2020.

Crime is no longer dropping but it's no longer the crisis it once was a generation ago.