NC-13 [SurveyUSA/John Locke(R)]: Nickel +1

[wbrocks67]

Nickel (D) 44%
Hines (R) 43%

https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/1585346325561868321

Beasley +5 here, 44-39

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Nickel (D) 44%
Hines (R) 43%

https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/1585346325561868321

Beasley +5 here, 44-39

Why is Hines outperforming Budd? The former is a joke tier candidate

[Devils30]

Umm.....this does not come even close to suggesting a red wave. Biden was +1.7 here.

[Devils30]

Nickel (D) 44%
Hines (R) 43%

https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/1585346325561868321

Beasley +5 here, 44-39

Beasley could win NC if she really won the 13th by 5%. That said, it's one poll. Her path is pretty much running up a bigger than Biden margin in Wake (a lot like Olmsted in MN-1, Lancaster in NE-1) and hope without Trump rural GOP turnout falls off enough for a 0.2% win or so. Unlikely but that's the pathway.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Umm.....this does not come even close to suggesting a red wave. Biden was +1.7 here.

Hines is a buffoon and Nickel is a strong candidate. However, I do think Republicans are so out of touch with their own voters they can't even find them in any polling model

[Devils30]

Umm.....this does not come even close to suggesting a red wave. Biden was +1.7 here.

Hines is a buffoon and Nickel is a strong candidate. However, I do think Republicans are so out of touch with their own voters they can't even find them in any polling model

Yeah but GCB is D+2 and the undecideds look very Dem friendly. Its too bad this district will probably be eliminated once the GOP NC Supreme Court overturns the current court. This seat has AZ-9 2012 vibes all over it. Begins competitive but becomes a 12 point Dem win by 2028.

SUSA has been very good in NC as well.

[Dani Rose]

So...a (partial?) Republican internal has our candidate up here, and Beasley ahead by even more than that?

Know what's going in the shallow part of my prayers tonight...

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I left this race blank yesterday.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Tilt D -> Tilt D

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Likely R (doomer, sane)

[Tekken_Guy]

I expect Hines to win this, but Nickel is far from out of the running.

[Hollywood]

Any SurveyUSA Poll with Lucid Holding Data is garbage.  The Early and In-Person Vote Statistics in NC are clearly better than expected for Republicans.  Democrats held a much larger advantages in 2020 and 2018.  In NC-13, only 6% of people voted on 10/21/22, and only 8% of people cast a ballot via VBM/Early In-Person by the 23rd.  Yet, Survey USA has double (12%) early votes, and 10% additional VBM voters. It favors Democrats even though Republican vote share is improving with Early In-person.

According to the poll, only 75% of Republicans support the Budd.  A lot of undecided Republicans and Conservatives.  Even Independents that lean Republican remain undecided even though they clearly favor Republicans in the GCB.  There are more Biden than Trump Voters (48-42%), 20% of People that care about inflation are still undecided. 

When I adjust the numbers to reflect reality, Republicans easily win NC-13.