NC-13 [SurveyUSA/John Locke(R)]: Nickel +1
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  NC-13 [SurveyUSA/John Locke(R)]: Nickel +1
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Author Topic: NC-13 [SurveyUSA/John Locke(R)]: Nickel +1  (Read 717 times)
wbrocks67
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« on: October 26, 2022, 02:12:11 PM »

Nickel (D) 44%
Hines (R) 43%

https://twitter.com/RaleighReporter/status/1585346325561868321

Beasley +5 here, 44-39
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #1 on: October 26, 2022, 02:25:11 PM »

Why is Hines outperforming Budd? The former is a joke tier candidate
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Devils30
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« Reply #2 on: October 26, 2022, 02:34:01 PM »

Umm.....this does not come even close to suggesting a red wave. Biden was +1.7 here.
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Devils30
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« Reply #3 on: October 26, 2022, 02:35:46 PM »


Beasley could win NC if she really won the 13th by 5%. That said, it's one poll. Her path is pretty much running up a bigger than Biden margin in Wake (a lot like Olmsted in MN-1, Lancaster in NE-1) and hope without Trump rural GOP turnout falls off enough for a 0.2% win or so. Unlikely but that's the pathway.
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RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
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« Reply #4 on: October 26, 2022, 02:36:30 PM »

Umm.....this does not come even close to suggesting a red wave. Biden was +1.7 here.
Hines is a buffoon and Nickel is a strong candidate. However, I do think Republicans are so out of touch with their own voters they can't even find them in any polling model
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Devils30
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« Reply #5 on: October 26, 2022, 02:38:47 PM »

Umm.....this does not come even close to suggesting a red wave. Biden was +1.7 here.
Hines is a buffoon and Nickel is a strong candidate. However, I do think Republicans are so out of touch with their own voters they can't even find them in any polling model

Yeah but GCB is D+2 and the undecideds look very Dem friendly. Its too bad this district will probably be eliminated once the GOP NC Supreme Court overturns the current court. This seat has AZ-9 2012 vibes all over it. Begins competitive but becomes a 12 point Dem win by 2028.

SUSA has been very good in NC as well.
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Dani Rose
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« Reply #6 on: October 26, 2022, 02:41:57 PM »

So...a (partial?) Republican internal has our candidate up here, and Beasley ahead by even more than that?

Know what's going in the shallow part of my prayers tonight...
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #7 on: October 26, 2022, 06:19:06 PM »

I left this race blank yesterday.
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Trump is “America’s Hitler”
Mr. X
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« Reply #8 on: October 26, 2022, 06:19:42 PM »

Tilt D -> Tilt D
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #9 on: October 26, 2022, 06:23:20 PM »

Likely R (doomer, sane)
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #10 on: October 26, 2022, 06:27:09 PM »

I expect Hines to win this, but Nickel is far from out of the running.
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Hollywood
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« Reply #11 on: October 26, 2022, 08:22:37 PM »

Any SurveyUSA Poll with Lucid Holding Data is garbage.  The Early and In-Person Vote Statistics in NC are clearly better than expected for Republicans.  Democrats held a much larger advantages in 2020 and 2018.  In NC-13, only 6% of people voted on 10/21/22, and only 8% of people cast a ballot via VBM/Early In-Person by the 23rd.  Yet, Survey USA has double (12%) early votes, and 10% additional VBM voters. It favors Democrats even though Republican vote share is improving with Early In-person.

According to the poll, only 75% of Republicans support the Budd.  A lot of undecided Republicans and Conservatives.  Even Independents that lean Republican remain undecided even though they clearly favor Republicans in the GCB.  There are more Biden than Trump Voters (48-42%), 20% of People that care about inflation are still undecided. 

When I adjust the numbers to reflect reality, Republicans easily win NC-13. 
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