AZ Sen - Data for Progress - Tied

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1585304899482308614?t=eISKRHeYGTzdwFvlSM...

[Dani Rose]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

[wbrocks67]

Mark Kelly is winning Independents by 10% (50-40) and he's tied statewide? Make it make sense!

Also, Donald Trump with a 49/51 favorability in Arizona? What even is this? lol

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

[MRS DONNA SHALALA]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1562083045645197312

(obvious caveats, special election is not the same as a general etc etc, but the observation that they have an r-leaning LV screen this cycle is valid)

[Dani Rose]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

Er, did I say anything about the election being over...?

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1562083045645197312

One poll.. especially a special.. doesn't equal a pollster having a massive republican lean.

Wait until the actual general to make that conclusion.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

Er, did I say anything about the election being over...?

I'm being facetious.. its difficult to make a estimation on how a pollster leans until the aftermath of the actual election.

[wbrocks67]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1562083045645197312

One poll.. especially a special.. doesn't equal a pollster having a massive republican lean.

Wait until the actual general to make that conclusion.

Whether or not it bears out is one thing, but all of these polls have a significantly more GOP sample than recent history.

It's why Democrats are leading among Independents in all of these polls, yet the GOP sample is usually way larger than Dems, even in places like NV, where that's... not true

[Dani Rose]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

Er, did I say anything about the election being over...?

I'm being facetious.. its difficult to make a estimation on how a pollster leans until the aftermath of the actual election.

Fair enough. All I meant was that D4P has been inexplicably R-friendly this cycle. New York wasn't the only time they put up a poll this year showing a Republican candidate way ahead of where they would logically be at the time, so a tie in Arizona from them is pretty heartening for me personally.

[kwabbit]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1562083045645197312

One poll.. especially a special.. doesn't equal a pollster having a massive republican lean.

Wait until the actual general to make that conclusion.

Whether or not it bears out is one thing, but all of these polls have a significantly more GOP sample than recent history.

It's why Democrats are leading among Independents in all of these polls, yet the GOP sample is usually way larger than Dems, even in places like NV, where that's... not true

They might ask the question oddly where R leaners are more likely to say they ID as R, leaving the independents as pro-D. Perhaps the texting format leads to this phenomenon.

[Senator Cris]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year that D4P is a D-leaning pollster, this is pretty good for Masters!

You can make it both ways...

[wbrocks67]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

https://twitter.com/DataProgress/status/1562083045645197312

One poll.. especially a special.. doesn't equal a pollster having a massive republican lean.

Wait until the actual general to make that conclusion.

Whether or not it bears out is one thing, but all of these polls have a significantly more GOP sample than recent history.

It's why Democrats are leading among Independents in all of these polls, yet the GOP sample is usually way larger than Dems, even in places like NV, where that's... not true

They might ask the question oddly where R leaners are more likely to say they ID as R, leaving the independents as pro-D. Perhaps the texting format leads to this phenomenon.

Possibly!

However I think the proof of some of these samples are a bit R leaning is in the Trump favorability. 50/50 for him in FL makes total sense, but him having nearly the same favorability he has in FL in .... NV and AZ makes much less sense.

[Dani Rose]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year that D4P is a D-leaning pollster, this is pretty good for Masters!

You can make it both ways...

I didn't realize that being hopeful was so controversial?

[kwabbit]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

Er, did I say anything about the election being over...?

I'm being facetious.. its difficult to make a estimation on how a pollster leans until the aftermath of the actual election.

Fair enough. All I meant was that D4P has been inexplicably R-friendly this cycle. New York wasn't the only time they put up a poll this year showing a Republican candidate way ahead of where they would logically be at the time, so a tie in Arizona from them is pretty heartening for me personally.

D4P isn’t herding at least. They had Kelly up 1 a while ago, so this is a decent result for him. Not a big swing. In most other states they’ve had pretty typical results.

A failure in a special election that everyone got wrong is no reason to think they’ve become some R hack pollster that needs to be adjusted to become more D friendly. They are D affiliated; they’re not going to overestimate Republicans if they thought it was not accurate.

[wbrocks67]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

Er, did I say anything about the election being over...?

I'm being facetious.. its difficult to make a estimation on how a pollster leans until the aftermath of the actual election.

Fair enough. All I meant was that D4P has been inexplicably R-friendly this cycle. New York wasn't the only time they put up a poll this year showing a Republican candidate way ahead of where they would logically be at the time, so a tie in Arizona from them is pretty heartening for me personally.

D4P isn’t herding at least. They had Kelly up 1 a while ago, so this is a decent result for him. Not a big swing. In most other states they’ve had pretty typical results.

A failure in a special election that everyone got wrong is no reason to think they’ve become some R hack pollster that needs to be adjusted to become more D friendly. They are D affiliated; they’re not going to overestimate Republicans if they thought it was not accurate.

Yeah, I don't think they're doing it on purpose - I do think there may be credence to them being overly cautious with their samples these days after being too pro-D in the past.

[MT Treasurer]

Wow, a D incumbent who only narrowly beat an extremely flawed opponent in a Democratic year in a state which any Republican President not named Donald Trump would have won is extremely vulnerable in a far more Republican-leaning environment in a midterm under a D trifecta? I’m shocked, I totally thought this was Likely D.

[kwabbit]

Given how bizarrely R-friendly D4P has been this year, this is pretty good!

Didn't realize election day had come and gone..

How was it ?

Er, did I say anything about the election being over...?

I'm being facetious.. its difficult to make a estimation on how a pollster leans until the aftermath of the actual election.

Fair enough. All I meant was that D4P has been inexplicably R-friendly this cycle. New York wasn't the only time they put up a poll this year showing a Republican candidate way ahead of where they would logically be at the time, so a tie in Arizona from them is pretty heartening for me personally.

D4P isn’t herding at least. They had Kelly up 1 a while ago, so this is a decent result for him. Not a big swing. In most other states they’ve had pretty typical results.

A failure in a special election that everyone got wrong is no reason to think they’ve become some R hack pollster that needs to be adjusted to become more D friendly. They are D affiliated; they’re not going to overestimate Republicans if they thought it was not accurate.

Yeah, I don't think they're doing it on purpose - I do think there may be credence to them being overly cautious with their samples these days after being too pro-D in the past.

I thought D4P was decent in 2020. Not great of course, but they didn’t have that many meme results. They were to the right of the averages then too. They had results at the end that put to rest the 56D senate hopes.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

Wow, a D incumbent who only narrowly beat an extremely flawed opponent in a Democratic year in a state which any Republican President not named Donald Trump would have won is extremely vulnerable in a far more Republican-leaning environment in a midterm under a D trifecta? I’m shocked, I totally thought this was Likely D.

Polling is that predictable that you could literally pinpoint when the Fox double digit polls were going to release.. only for the race to tighten by 10 points in the proceeding 2 months.

[xavier110]

Idk what’s happened over the last couple weeks where Kelly had steady 50 percent. It was obvious that Masters wasn’t going to end up with just 44 percent, though, like he was in every other poll for months.

This one is interesting since they have quite rosy favorables for Masters/Lake vs. the average poll.

[Babeuf]

Not saying this poll is especially accurate (no idea), but if this race ends up within 1-2% McConnell will have a lot to answer for from his caucus. When you have the largest Super PAC in the game it’s absurd to cut off a senate race in a usually ultra close swing state.

[Alben Barkley]

D4P and Trafalgar may both be incentivized to produce polls showing a close result so that the fundraising emails for their party can say “NEW POLL! WARNOCK NOW DOWN BY 2!!! WILL YOU DONATE 20 DOLLARS TO HELP SAVE DEMOCRACY???” or whatever.