A western strategy

[°Leprechaun]

Here is a map of how the Dems could win 270 electoral votes:

comments?

[Verily]

Short of Janet Napolitano as the Democratic nominee (or a really terrible Republican candidate), I don't see any way for the Democrats to win Arizona no matter how hard they campaign there.

[opebo]

Colorado and Nevada are very reasonable goals; Arizona not yet.  As for winning Arkansas and not Wisconsin or Pennsylvania - bizarre.  PA is reliable and WI far more likely to stick with us than AR or AZ.

[°Leprechaun]

Colorado and Nevada are very reasonable goals; Arizona not yet.  As for winning Arkansas and not Wisconsin or Pennsylvania - bizarre.  PA is reliable and WI far more likely to stick with us than AR or AZ.

Unlikely, yes, but my map is based on states switching which are within a few percentage points.
I for one, do not think PA is especially critical, although it has always been regarded as a swing state by the two parties. If it is not critical, should any Democrat object if I vote Green? Not that it would stop me.

[°Leprechaun]

Although I doubt that all the states which Clinton won at least once can be considered swing states (especially Georgia and Montana, won once, or Kentucky, won twice) Arizona and Colorado were won by Clinton once and NM and Nev. twice.

[°Leprechaun]

Missouri and Arkansas, although they definately lean Republican are winnable. I think the Democrats would make a huge mistake if they focused primarily on Florida and Ohio, bring prizes no doubt, and ignored states like Missouri, Arizona, Nevada, and Arkansas.
True, the south is becoming harder and harder to win, but why write in off when a state like Arkansas with *only* six electoral votes could nevertheless decide the election.

[°Leprechaun]

If it is not obvious, the point of my map is to show how (however unlikely) the Dems could lose three states in the East and pick up seven in the West.
By East and West I mean states East or West of the Mississippi river. I am arbitrarily dividing the nation in half.
Hence Arkansas, Missouri and Iowas are in the "West".

[Mr.Phips]

I don't see them winning Arkansas, Missouri, and Arizona without winning New Hampshire, Pennslyvania, and Wisconsin.

[Alcon]

How could a Democrat win Colorado and Arkansas without winning New Hampshire and Wisconsin?

[MaC]

Here is a map of how the Dems could win 270 electoral votes:

comments?

or keep the status quo and hit Ohio...

[Padfoot]

I think this is a more doable and far more likely "Western Win" for the Democrats.  278-260

[°Leprechaun]

How could a Democrat win Colorado and Arkansas without winning New Hampshire and Wisconsin?

I think this is a more doable and far more likely "Western Win" for the Democrats.  278-260

My map is not so much about probabilty as about possibility;
 it is more likely than something more shall we
say 'impossible' (like Republicans winning DC or Dems getting Utah)
... but it is only hypothetical in the
sense that it could happen in the sense if the candidates spend time/money or are from
certain states etc... but since they won't - it won't..
The point is that Dems can win if they target the right states
... the sad thing is that there are fewer
and fewer 'swing' states... in 3-23 years we could see the swing states drop to 1-5.
Can you imagine if Florida, (or some other state for that matter), became the *only*
swing state?
Hence, the electoral college is a real problem. I say if FPTP was the only alternative (and it isn't),
keep the electoral college as is. But, of course, that is a false choice. Any changes in the electoral
college will not happen until better alternatives are offered.

[°Leprechaun]

But, padfoot714 your map is certainly more likely, and therefore makes the point better than I did that certain western states may be critical depending of course, on what happens in the SouthEastern states.

[Reignman]

I think this is a more doable and far more likely "Western Win" for the Democrats.  278-260

Yes, it's also actually a western strategy. Missouri and Arkansas are not states of the southwest, interior west, or whatever else west.

[TheresNoMoney]

Short of Janet Napolitano as the Democratic nominee (or a really terrible Republican candidate), I don't see any way for the Democrats to win Arizona no matter how hard they campaign there.

Agreed. Colorado, New Mexico and Nevada are the three new Western states that the Democrats can win in 2008.

Arizona will probably take another 10 or so years.