Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[soundchaser]

I am still bullish on CCM.

Yeah 80% sure ccm and Kelly have this

Really?  So the Clark/Washoe mail is going to be like 70% Dem?  I mean, apparently the late mail is nearly breaking even in the rurals, so maybe?

I don't know this for a fact, but given the way the mail has broken so far, and word on the street that the Culinary Union encouraged the use of drop boxes on election day, it sure seems possible.

[omar04]

Wait so how many phantom ballots are there in Colorado ?. As it just relegated to Boeberts seat ?

#stopthesteal

[ajc0918]

I am still bullish on CCM.

Yeah 80% sure ccm and Kelly have this

Really?  So the Clark/Washoe mail is going to be like 70% Dem?  I mean, apparently the late mail is nearly breaking even in the rurals, so maybe?

I don't know this for a fact, but given the way the mail has broken so far, and word on the street that the Culinary Union encouraged the use of drop boxes on election day, it sure seems possible.

Yeah the Culinary Union did encourage mail drop offs which weren't included in the election day turnout figures. That's why Ralston was saying turnout was lower than expected because drop offs weren't included in the figures even though they were "election day votes."

[SCNCmod]

No hot takes from me on this race: Beasley lost because she was a Democrat running in North Carolina, a stubbornly Tilt/Lean R state.

Ppl in NC know that many ppl outside of the state have an incorrect read- largely based on Congressional gerrymandering (makes it look more R), 3 deceivingly weak  Senate Candidates (Marshall, Ross, Cunningham) in a row (despite some seeming ok on paper).  Also Dem Gov serving 2nd Term, an elected State Supreme Ct that was Majority Dem until last night, and a demographic moving a little more purple each year largely due to Charlotte & Raleigh Durham RTP Tech growth. Not to mention Obama won in NC first term & Biden only lost NC by 1/3rd of a %pt (.0035)


So truth is- the right candidate (Beasley fits... Jeff Jackson also fits.. and he will likely be nominee next election) can definitely win NC .. esp with a little support. And if a strong candidate & smart campaign decisions- the Dem is actuallt probably favored.

[It’s so Joever]

If there is still Pueblo in person left, it’s over for Frisch.

[win win]

I' m not even sure election day drop offs will even break for CCM heavily
They didnt' in Washoe. it was like a 10k margin of Republicans to Democrats plus some indies

Clark county in past elections is a 55 45 kinda place. we need it to skew about 65 35

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/AlexODiazNV/status/1590502371586891777?s=20&t=Iy0XheZ0sT...

Lean CCM. More mail to come through Saturday too.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/johnrsamuelsen/status/1590504525848547328?s=46&t=nSo5c0_...

[VBM]

Can someone who isn’t a notorious doomer or Dem hack explain to me how Nevada’s looking?

[soundchaser]

Can someone who isn’t a notorious doomer or Dem hack explain to me how Nevada’s looking?

Only doomers and Dem hacks left in the thread, friend.

[Ferguson97]

Can someone who isn’t a notorious doomer or Dem hack explain to me how Nevada’s looking?

If the ballots break as they have been breaking up until this point, then CCM should win VERY narrowly.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Boebert's seat is going to be extremely close.

"don't include of lot of" can mean several things and that very well could make the difference.

Also, how heavily R is the e-day vote in Colorado compared to the overall results?

Again, there are votes out in some very D counties that should net Frisch a few hundred votes.

Either way, this has been a complete roller coaster and it may very well end in dissapointment.

[LimoLiberal]

Reminder that these have not yet been tallied and will net CCM ~4-5K:

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1590215722273505280

[pantsaregood]

https://twitter.com/AlexODiazNV/status/1590502371586891777?s=20&t=Iy0XheZ0sT...

Lean CCM. More mail to come through Saturday too.

Taking the remaining 156,700 with a 57.5-42.5 margin narrowly puts CCM in the lead. At a 2:1 margin, Sisolak likely gets pulled over the finish line.

[Kamala's side hoe]

Can someone who isn’t a notorious doomer or Dem hack explain to me how Nevada’s looking?

Only doomers and Dem hacks left in the thread, friend.

I’m a doomer on the uncalled House races in CA but a Dem hack on where non-black, non-indigenous POC stand in the D coalition (which might explain said dooming), so guess that makes me both?

[Gass3268]

Can someone who isn’t a notorious doomer or Dem hack explain to me how Nevada’s looking?

It’s gonna be close

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Pitkin is fully in, so Boebert has won.

/Mod fact check: This has not been established./

[lfromnj]

Can someone who isn’t a notorious doomer or Dem hack explain to me how Nevada’s looking?

Only doomers and Dem hacks left in the thread, friend.

I’m a dommer on the uncalled House races in CA but a Dem back on where non-black, non-indigenous POC stand in the D coalition (which might explain said dooming), so guess that makes me both?

lfromnj seems pretty optimistic about the remaining NV ballots for CCM, not sure if he made a bet on the outcome but it’s good to hear what he has to say.

My only bet is the opposite actually . Made it a while back on predict it . r senate D house. .

[win win]

Election day-voting where you drop in a ballot box isn't heavily D or even D at all
election day drop off shouldn't be any skewed.
If these are from early votes - that's heavily skewed to D

depends on where the ballots came from.
if they all came from Vegas, CCM has a chance.

FWIW
Laxalt won election day drop box in Washoe by 10k

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Can someone who isn’t a notorious doomer or Dem hack explain to me how Nevada’s looking?

Only doomers and Dem hacks left in the thread, friend.

I’m a dommer on the uncalled House races in CA but a Dem back on where non-black, non-indigenous POC stand in the D coalition (which might explain said dooming), so guess that makes me both?

lfromnj seems pretty optimistic about the remaining NV ballots for CCM, not sure if he made a bet on the outcome but it’s good to hear what he has to say.

Yeah, it is.

[DaleCooper]

I am still bullish on CCM.

Yeah 80% sure ccm and Kelly have this

Really?  So the Clark/Washoe mail is going to be like 70% Dem?  I mean, apparently the late mail is nearly breaking even in the rurals, so maybe?

I don't see why CCM couldn't net 30k votes from over 140k votes in (mostly) Clark and a Washoe mail and drop-off ballots.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ugh I am so upset Boebert likely wins now

Can we all just WAIT for the next dump?

If there is still Pueblo in person left, it’s over for Frisch.

35 minutes apart.

[wbrocks67]

Also don't forget, mail can come in thru Saturday in NV. I believe CNN reported earlier than ~12K had come in today, so possible we get another few thousand over the next few days

[LimoLiberal]

Election day-voting where you drop in a ballot box isn't heavily D or even D at all
election day drop off shouldn't be any skewed.
If these are from early votes - that's heavily skewed to D

depends on where the ballots came from.
if they all came from Vegas, CCM has a chance.

FWIW
Laxalt won election day drop box in Washoe by 10k

This is false. Election day drop box in Washoe has not been tallied - Republicans had a very slight registration lead in the ~18.5K ballots that were dropped off.

[jamestroll]

Remember, we are getting election rumors from the same people who told us never to leave our homes until covid is eradicated.  So there is that.