Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[ProgressiveModerate]

Isn't it just like 12:25 in the west?

I actually feel like this is important for folks to remember. I feel like we have a bias to just assume it's roughly the same time of day out there as it is a long the coast here (and I'm sure the reverse is true too).

Here in NYC area, it's already starting to get a bit orange outside

[Florida Man for Crime]

exit polls when

[new_patomic]

Looking good so far, though the only race I’m really sweating is IL Supreme Court

Illinois is interesting because there are a lot of dominoes that all fall at once given the abundance of Biden + 10-15 seats, the state Supreme Court, and a few row offices. The GOP may also have a very very small chance at at least 1 chamber of the legislature which would probably fall at around the same time.

Given Biden is unpopular in Illinois I wondered why Pritzker was coasting in the opinion polls.

Because he's relatively successful and his opponent is Darren Bailey

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Not a peep out of Michigan?

[jamestroll]

OPEN THE ATLAS PREDICTIONS PAGE AGAIN

I thought I still had time to update my gubernatorial map

haha  i am already looking forward to the 2026 midterms.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking good so far, though the only race I’m really sweating is IL Supreme Court

Illinois is interesting because there are a lot of dominoes that all fall at once given the abundance of Biden + 10-15 seats, the state Supreme Court, and a few row offices. The GOP may also have a very very small chance at at least 1 chamber of the legislature which would probably fall at around the same time.

Given Biden is unpopular in Illinois I wondered why Pritzker was coasting in the opinion polls.

I think it's because the GOP never ran a serious campaign against him. Perhaps had they nomianted someone else, he could've had a scare simillar to Hochul's

I also get the sense he's gotten some pretty decent press.

Underrated chance IL Sen is in single digits.

[It’s so Joever]

Yikes. If these precinct turnout reports are at all accurate…polling really will be as bad as we thought it was.

[Eraserhead]

exit polls when

Some stuff should come out around 5 PM ET. There won't be any exits from specific races for a while though.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

OPEN THE ATLAS PREDICTIONS PAGE AGAIN

I thought I still had time to update my gubernatorial map

It was 3 PM Eastern time. I slept in at 7 AM and ran out of time to get even a gubernatorial prediction in.
Sad.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/ProgFlipPAWI/status/1590087574349287425?s=20&t=XttkdiIjM...

About sums up the vibes for the moment.

Count VA in with NV I suppose.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Not a peep out of Michigan?

The only thing I've seen has said Ann Arbor is doing amazing and infact getting close to 2020 turnout levels.

Outside of that though idk, and as always take things with a grain of salt, but the Ann Arbor stuff was actual raw numbers from UMich voter on twitter I think.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Hard to judge from turnout reports, but...did literally anyone have Barnes and Masters both winning?

It was in my range of possible outcomes, as I was generally pessimistic about the sun belt but becoming a little bit more optimistic about the rust belt, but I definitely didn't have it as the most likely scenario by a long shot (remains to be seen if it will happen, of course, just speaking hypothetically if it does happen).

[Buzz]

Won’t be long until we get some meltdowns in here over useless exit polls that we tell ourselves every year we aren’t going to look at anymore!

[emailking]

Was that a server upgrade?

Let's hope so.  That was the most terrifying four minutes of my life!

Remember 2016 when the site was down?

The 2012 results thread is 1 page. lol

[MT Treasurer]

OPEN THE ATLAS PREDICTIONS PAGE AGAIN

I thought I still had time to update my gubernatorial map

haha  i am already looking forward to the 2026 midterms.

I’m a Gretchen Whitmer/Lujan Grisham Republican now just so my prediction isn’t wrong (I was going to flip those two races to the GOP).

[Florida Man for Crime]

exit polls when

Some stuff should come out around 5 PM ET. There won't be any exits from specific races for a while though.

We do need exit polls to break up the monotony of Guam dooming and Clark County dooming, so that we can doom instead about contradictory statistics from the early exit polls, some of which will be carefully chosen by the media presenters to make it appear like Republican turnout is good, and others of which will be carefully chosen by the media presenters to make it appear like Democratic turnout is good.

[oldtimer]

About sums up the vibes for the moment.

Count VA in with NV I suppose.

States with similar demographics ought to correllate with one another.
Do Nevada and Arizona look like X so far? Yes, no surprise.
So find the equivalent of Virginia.

[new_patomic]

https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen/status/1590088014427889666?s=20&t=ybp0kpP...

Slow and steady...

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://twitter.com/ProgFlipPAWI/status/1590087574349287425?s=20&t=XttkdiIjM...

About sums up the vibes for the moment.

Count VA in with NV I suppose.

I think with turnout, it's better to analyze it more by overall national correlations than state by state.

I feel like a broken record here but by the way things are looking, Rs are doing better in turnout overall, and the Dem base will continue to become whiter and more college educated.

[Zenobiyl]

Looking good so far, though the only race I’m really sweating is IL Supreme Court

Illinois is interesting because there are a lot of dominoes that all fall at once given the abundance of Biden + 10-15 seats, the state Supreme Court, and a few row offices. The GOP may also have a very very small chance at at least 1 chamber of the legislature which would probably fall at around the same time.

Given Biden is unpopular in Illinois I wondered why Pritzker was coasting in the opinion polls.

We blundered in giving the nom to a hard-right candidate

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

exit polls when

Some stuff should come out around 5 PM ET. There won't be any exits from specific races for a while though.

We do need exit polls to break up the monotony of Guam dooming and Clark County dooming, so that we can doom instead about contradictory statistics from the early exit polls, some of which will be carefully chosen by the media presenters to make it appear like Republican turnout is good, and others of which will be carefully chosen by the media presenters to make it appear like Democratic turnout is good.

AZ:

Women - Kelly 100% - Masters 0% - Tommy Pickles 8%

[Aurelius]

Won’t be long until we get some meltdowns in here over useless exit polls that we tell ourselves every year we aren’t going to look at anymore!

Us on election night before polls close is normal people watching the super bowl if they somehow had a feed an hour early but it only had 10 pixels.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Looking good so far, though the only race I’m really sweating is IL Supreme Court

Illinois is interesting because there are a lot of dominoes that all fall at once given the abundance of Biden + 10-15 seats, the state Supreme Court, and a few row offices. The GOP may also have a very very small chance at at least 1 chamber of the legislature which would probably fall at around the same time.

Given Biden is unpopular in Illinois I wondered why Pritzker was coasting in the opinion polls.

We blundered in giving the nom to a hard-right candidate

Also I think Republicans in Illinois attack Chicago way too much. If you want to get voters on your side, you don't talk down to them or their communities, but meet them where they're at.

The reverse is sort of true in Ohio where Dems have been toxic for rural areas and have kinda painted them with a broad brush.

[Gracile]

Just a reminder that we have another thread devoted to gubernatorial and state-level results if you want to discuss those races in greater depth:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=526487.0

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I wouldn't panic yet. It could very well be a bloodbath for the Democrats, but a lot of Democrats voted by mail and in early voting. You'd suspect e-day voters to be heavily Republican