Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[7,052,770]

Nevada was less than half of the population than the next smallest state for its first century of statehood. That means there is solid precedent for a state of Marianas.

From an outsider looking in - the territories could be granted one seat in each chamber regardless of their population, disregarding the normal apportionment rules, as done in the sparsely populated territories of France and Canada. I'm not sure if this is explicitly required by the Constitution, or whether Congress can simply pass a law granting them.

Seems pretty unfair to say that Wyoming at 1/80th of California's population is big enough to get equal Senate representation but Marianas at 1/2 of Wyoming isn't.

The Senate is ridiculous, but it is what it is and it's not changing, nor should an exception be made just for the Marianas.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Nevada was less than half of the population than the next smallest state for its first century of statehood. That means there is solid precedent for a state of Marianas.

From an outsider looking in - the territories could be granted one seat in each chamber regardless of their population, disregarding the normal apportionment rules, as done in the sparsely populated territories of France and Canada. I'm not sure if this is explicitly required by the Constitution, or whether Congress can simply pass a law granting them.

Different numbers of Senators per state is impossible to amend out. I suppose you could read Article V of the constitution to not mention territories in that sense, but even if you did you’d need an amendment to do so.

[LimoLiberal]

I think... Kent is going down (!)

https://twitter.com/WApolwatch/status/1591197535045292034

[Biden 2024]

It's really hard to know how Guam or other territories would vote if they were allowed to vote in US presidential elections.  Their state politics are very different than US politics.
Before Alaska and Hawaii became states, Alaska was supposed to be Democratic and Hawaii Republican.

Missile defense and North Korea would be a big issue in Guam, and Presidential candidates would have to talk about their plans for that. That could cause idiosyncrasies similar to the idiosyncrasy of Florida with respect to Cuba and Venezuela.

Might make a thread about this but: Does anyone know if is available public opinion polling re: presidential approval rating (at least for the last four presidents to get a real gage) in the territories? I had trouble finding any in PR but it might be different in Guam.

[Skill and Chance]

Nevada was less than half of the population than the next smallest state for its first century of statehood. That means there is solid precedent for a state of Marianas.

From an outsider looking in - the territories could be granted one seat in each chamber regardless of their population, disregarding the normal apportionment rules, as done in the sparsely populated territories of France and Canada. I'm not sure if this is explicitly required by the Constitution, or whether Congress can simply pass a law granting them.

Puerto Rico has a higher population than Kansas or Arkansas, enough for 4 CDs in the House, while all of the other territories are smaller than Wyoming.  Giving them all the same representation would only make things even less fair overall.

[pantsaregood]

Nevada was less than half of the population than the next smallest state for its first century of statehood. That means there is solid precedent for a state of Marianas.

From an outsider looking in - the territories could be granted one seat in each chamber regardless of their population, disregarding the normal apportionment rules, as done in the sparsely populated territories of France and Canada. I'm not sure if this is explicitly required by the Constitution, or whether Congress can simply pass a law granting them.

Puerto Rico has a higher population than Kansas or Arkansas, enough for 4 CDs in the House, while all of the other territories are smaller than Wyoming.  Giving them all the same representation would only make things even less fair overall.

The easy fix for this is to just increase the number of representatives in the house.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I think... Kent is going down (!)

https://twitter.com/WApolwatch/status/1591197535045292034

What’s this based on? What are Kent’s targets in that county?

[MikeIrvine]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591081399142223878
Katie Hobbs follows Big Gretchen's lead, gets North Korea levels of support with the youths

I thought ASU was known for being a "party school" that wouldn't necessarily lean quite as liberal as a "Public Ivy" school like U-M? That makes this even more impressive.

Wonder what the results were like on the UK campus for the anti-choice amendment now, considering it got blown out of the water in Fayette County as a whole.

Semi related but I'm like 75-25 this this account is an engagement farm bot for liberals

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1591200094707228679

RALSTON ALMOST READY TO CALL IT!!!

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1591200094707228679

RALSTON ALMOST READY TO CALL IT!!!

When is the dump supposed to happen?

[Alben Barkley]

So I'm just gonna say it... Given the WV results this year and even in 2020 showing the state is at least not still lurching right and may well have maxed out for the GOP, do you think maybe Manchin still has a prayer after all? Especially if Trump isn't on the ballot in 2024?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Unfortunately, I think he's only going to end up calling Treasurer and Secretary of State for the Democrats today.

[Torie]

https://twitter.com/CATargetAlt/status/1591187229262553088?s=20&t=472jj5_dQQ...

One of the only specific political ads I received this cycle (along with a DeSantis one) was a Salas on youtube in Spanish. It was honestly not a “great” ad it was just a generic shill…but that shows that Salas really has been investing in trying to reach younger Latino voters in the district. (No clue why I got one…I’ve never been to that part of CA in my life) Anyways, hopefully it pays off.

That chart is useless given that it does not disclose the estimated percentage of votes left to county in each county.

[Tekken_Guy]

https://twitter.com/ralstonreports/status/1591200094707228679

RALSTON ALMOST READY TO CALL IT!!!

I could easily see this being the call for Lombardo.

[BlueSwan]

So I'm just gonna say it... Given the WV results this year and even in 2020 showing the state is at least not still lurching right and may well have maxed out for the GOP, do you think maybe Manchin still has a prayer after all? Especially if Trump isn't on the ballot in 2024?

Only if the R candidate is atrociously bad. We’re talking full blown Qanon.

[Alben Barkley]

I will say one cautionary thing: In 2017, UK Labour managed to beat polls and expectations, gain seats, and nearly pull off an upset, forcing their opponent's leader to step down in embarrassment. Only to get absolutely shellacked in 2019.

So while I am as hopeful as anyone that 2024 will be an even greater success for Democrats than this year's, don't forget that US and UK politics often tend to weirdly mirror each other, or simply that a lot can happen in two years.

[Alben Barkley]

So I'm just gonna say it... Given the WV results this year and even in 2020 showing the state is at least not still lurching right and may well have maxed out for the GOP, do you think maybe Manchin still has a prayer after all? Especially if Trump isn't on the ballot in 2024?

Only if the R candidate is atrociously bad. We’re talking full blown Qanon.

Which wouldn't be too surprising as the R primary winner in WV...

[2952-0-0]

Nevada was less than half of the population than the next smallest state for its first century of statehood. That means there is solid precedent for a state of Marianas.

From an outsider looking in - the territories could be granted one seat in each chamber regardless of their population, disregarding the normal apportionment rules, as done in the sparsely populated territories of France and Canada. I'm not sure if this is explicitly required by the Constitution, or whether Congress can simply pass a law granting them.

Puerto Rico has a higher population than Kansas or Arkansas, enough for 4 CDs in the House, while all of the other territories are smaller than Wyoming.  Giving them all the same representation would only make things even less fair overall.

Perhaps PR could be granted seats according to the normal formula, with all the other ones granted one each notwithstanding the formula. But, I suspect that Puerto Rico will demand some recognition in the Constitution of its unique cultural heritage for a stronger mandate for statehood. Otherwise, there would be legitimate fear that it would become the next Louisiana. If Republicans successfully make more inroads into Hispanic communities, they might be tempted to do just that.

[7,052,770]

Nevada was less than half of the population than the next smallest state for its first century of statehood. That means there is solid precedent for a state of Marianas.

From an outsider looking in - the territories could be granted one seat in each chamber regardless of their population, disregarding the normal apportionment rules, as done in the sparsely populated territories of France and Canada. I'm not sure if this is explicitly required by the Constitution, or whether Congress can simply pass a law granting them.

Puerto Rico has a higher population than Kansas or Arkansas, enough for 4 CDs in the House, while all of the other territories are smaller than Wyoming.  Giving them all the same representation would only make things even less fair overall.

Perhaps PR could be granted seats according to the normal formula, with all the other ones granted one each notwithstanding the formula. But, I suspect that Puerto Rico will demand some recognition in the Constitution of its unique cultural heritage for a stronger mandate for statehood. Otherwise, there would be legitimate fear that it would become the next Louisiana. If Republicans successfully make more inroads into Hispanic communities, they might be tempted to do just that.

Anything that requires a constitutional amendment is a total non-starter. Instead we should just immediately grant statehood (like we've done 37 times since the original 13) to DC and Puerto Rico, since they've already voted on it, conditionally pre-grant it to the Marianas so that as soon as they vote on it they can become a state automatically, and open a dialogue with USVI and American Samoa to see what they want in the medium and long term. Perhaps something can be worked out.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think... Kent is going down (!)

https://twitter.com/WApolwatch/status/1591197535045292034

What’s this based on? What are Kent’s targets in that county?

Kent needed to be winning the outstanding Clark votes by at least a few points

[GeorgiaModerate]

Mod request: the discussion about adding representation for U.S. territories is quite interesting, but really out of place here.  How about starting a separate thread for it?

[2952-0-0]

Anything that requires a constitutional amendment is a total non-starter. Instead we should just immediately grant statehood (like we've done 37 times since the original 13) to DC and Puerto Rico, since they've already voted on it, conditionally pre-grant it to the Marianas so that as soon as they vote on it they can become a state automatically, and open a dialogue with USVI and American Samoa to see what they want in the medium and long term. Perhaps something can be worked out.

The DC Admissions Act as it stands requires the abolition of the 23rd Amendment, so that the remaining residents of the rump capital territory don't retain three electoral votes. By all accounts, if it passes, the amendment should sail through state legislatures with little attention, since it's in both parties' interests.

So, if and when PR is granted statehood, I can totally see a Republican Party that, in order to solidify the Puerto Rican vote both in PR and the mainland, champions an amendment to guarantee the status of the Spanish language on the island, and that the amendment wouldn't face any opposition from Democrats.

You're right, that a bespoke arrangement for the four remaining territories would be very difficult to implement, given the existing political realities.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Garrett_Archer/status/1591205461386461184

[ProgressiveModerate]

I think... Kent is going down (!)

https://twitter.com/WApolwatch/status/1591197535045292034

If he does this makes up for CO-03 disappointment

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Anything new over the past eight or so hours?