Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[DaleCooper]

Unless the data on the New York Times website is completely wrong (and I'm even overestimating Masters to give him a good 25-30k more votes than it indicates) I just don't see a path for him. What do you guys think? Not trying to be optimistic, don't want wishful thinking, I'm just looking at the results and don't get why there seems to be so much uncertainty this morning.

Unless the late ballots break more R than they did in 2020 which I don't see any way that could happen, Masters has lost.

Wouldn't they have to break quite a bit more R than they did in 2020?

[win win]

would be horrible if somehow Masters and Axalt pulled it off
when is the AZ thing gonna end

[GeorgiaModerate]

Don’t attack me sunshine brigade but are the 4 NY flips and James in Michigan enough to shut the door in the house? (Meaning barring a major miracle) - are we no longer in the “it’s possible” territory (meaning is it less than say…. 25%?)

That was true hours ago actually.

     Atlas is very excitable. When it became clear a red wave was not materializing, people jumped to all sorts of ideas about how Dems could triumph. I saw someone theorycrafting how Ryan could win, though Vance is now up by 6.5 points.

PiT do you wanna just carpool together back to Blue Avatar Land when this is all over? I think everybody else left early besides Spectator

Buzz was also around (and pleasant and cheerful as always, even with his side losing) until pretty late, IIRC.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

To summarize my last post:

https://twitter.com/Nick_Goedert/status/1590402240036057088

[MillennialModerate]

Don’t attack me sunshine brigade but are the 4 NY flips and James in Michigan enough to shut the door in the house? (Meaning barring a major miracle) - are we no longer in the “it’s possible” territory (meaning is it less than say…. 25%?)

That was true hours ago actually.

     Atlas is very excitable. When it became clear a red wave was not materializing, people jumped to all sorts of ideas about how Dems could triumph. I saw someone theorycrafting how Ryan could win, though Vance is now up by 6.5 points.

It turns into the Salem Witch trials when I say what you just said

If true, it's because you tend to say it while carrying a broomstick and cauldron into your gingerbread house.

Disagree but Touche’ none the less lol

[Gass3268]

Hmmmm

https://twitter.com/HWLavelleMaps/status/1590395725573394435?s=20&t=Z7WmYNMT...

That guy is going against almost every reputable source. But I’ll bite … who he is?

Co-Funder of Split/Ticket

https://twitter.com/lxeagle17/status/1590401026536136704?s=20&t=Z7WmYNMTR-je...

[President Johnson]

Man, I'm so happy I have off today.  Only four hours of sleep last night and I am wiped.  Lots of leftover pizza and soda, though! And may not need to report in tomorrow, but haven't heard yet.  If that's the case, it's gonna be a nap day, too

I always take off both Tuesday and Wednesday for elections (it's a lot harder to recover from late nights at my age).  This year I had vacation to burn and took off the whole week.  Really happy to not have to think about working again until Monday.

You guys are still in much better timezones than me... I usually take off the next day after presidential elections (did so since 2012), and also after 2018 midterms. This year I expected a Republican sweep and consequently thought it wasn't worth it.

Still watched everything unfold here (left page 30 open in my browser phone and then read till page 150 after getting up on 6.15 am. local time... fortunately I worked from home today) without checking any news websites before. I did the same after Super Tuesday in 2020.

[xavier110]

would be horrible if somehow Masters and Axalt pulled it off
when is the AZ thing gonna end

Never, 2020 never ended here

[MillennialModerate]

To summarize my last post:

https://twitter.com/Nick_Goedert/status/1590402240036057088

I got the GOP range at 219-223. Not many tossups left out there for either side

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's not a scientific measurement, but only ONE seat that was rated by the New York Times as "(party) expected to win easily" has flipped to the other party. 

Anybody wanna take a guess what seat that was? No cheating!

[xavier110]

To summarize my last post:

https://twitter.com/Nick_Goedert/status/1590402240036057088

If this ends with Ds holding the House because Schweikert loses my heart may stop

[Crumpets]

I can't believe I'm saying this, but you know who has been a real voice of reason ever since the story of this election became clear? Rick Santorum. He seems to be one of the few on the right wing of the GOP to understand the party's larger messaging problem and why someone who finds both candidates unfavorable would tend towards the Democrat right now.

[Citizen (The) Doctor]

It's not a scientific measurement, but only ONE seat that was rated by the New York Times as "(party) expected to win easily" has flipped to the other party. 

Anybody wanna take a guess what seat that was? No cheating!

NY-4 right?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/zackbeauchamp/status/1590402168309575681

[Associate Justice PiT]

[/pre]

Don’t attack me sunshine brigade but are the 4 NY flips and James in Michigan enough to shut the door in the house? (Meaning barring a major miracle) - are we no longer in the “it’s possible” territory (meaning is it less than say…. 25%?)

That was true hours ago actually.

     Atlas is very excitable. When it became clear a red wave was not materializing, people jumped to all sorts of ideas about how Dems could triumph. I saw someone theorycrafting how Ryan could win, though Vance is now up by 6.5 points.

PiT do you wanna just carpool together back to Blue Avatar Land when this is all over? I think everybody else left early besides Spectator

     Sure, it beats hanging around for presidential primaries. I want to be somewhere far away when Trump inevitably declares he is running again.

[wbrocks67]

CA got almost monotonically more R with each post E-Day update in 2020.  Biden went from about 67% in the election night results to about 63% in the final count.  I know the counting procedure changed between 2018 (when it got monotonically more D).  If this pattern repeats, CA would be a lesser version of NY with Newsom only winning by 12 or so.  I would not get excited about close Dem leads in any of the CA House seats until this is sorted out.

2020 =/= 2022. This year has seen a lot of evidence of voters going back to their 2018-style habits.

How does it feel to possibly be the single most vindicated Democratic hack on Atlas?

Ha, I don't want to gloat or make anyone feel like crap, b/c I certainly would feel awful if I was wrong and it was a bad night for Dems. But I would say that some people on this forum need to take a look at how they treat other people. Some people here were so obsessed with how I thought things weren't gonna be as bad and I got mocked pretty badly. Some self-reflection would be nice.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

It's not a scientific measurement, but only ONE seat that was rated by the New York Times as "(party) expected to win easily" has flipped to the other party. 

Anybody wanna take a guess what seat that was? No cheating!

NY-4 right?

Nope! They have that one under the "competitive" rating. 

[DaleCooper]

It's not a scientific measurement, but only ONE seat that was rated by the New York Times as "(party) expected to win easily" has flipped to the other party. 

Anybody wanna take a guess what seat that was? No cheating!

NY-4 right?

Nope! They have that one under the "competitive" rating. 

Was it one of the Ohio ones?

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Don’t attack me sunshine brigade but are the 4 NY flips and James in Michigan enough to shut the door in the house? (Meaning barring a major miracle) - are we no longer in the “it’s possible” territory (meaning is it less than say…. 25%?)

That was true hours ago actually.

     Atlas is very excitable. When it became clear a red wave was not materializing, people jumped to all sorts of ideas about how Dems could triumph. I saw someone theorycrafting how Ryan could win, though Vance is now up by 6.5 points.

PiT do you wanna just carpool together back to Blue Avatar Land when this is all over? I think everybody else left early besides Spectator

Buzz was also around (and pleasant and cheerful as always, even with his side losing) until pretty late, IIRC.

I like how Ancestral Democrat just kinda dissapred once his predicitions proved false

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

The results out of New York just blow my mind. Jay Jacobs (the party head) legitimately spent more effort stopping India Walton last year than they did any Republican this cycle. Including Zeldin.

Just a flagrant dereliction of duty. If he's not replaced the national party needs to cut all ties with it.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

It's not a scientific measurement, but only ONE seat that was rated by the New York Times as "(party) expected to win easily" has flipped to the other party. 

Anybody wanna take a guess what seat that was? No cheating!

CO-03?

[MillennialModerate]

It's not a scientific measurement, but only ONE seat that was rated by the New York Times as "(party) expected to win easily" has flipped to the other party. 

Anybody wanna take a guess what seat that was? No cheating!

BOE-bert the bitch bag?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

[/glow][/glow]

It's not a scientific measurement, but only ONE seat that was rated by the New York Times as "(party) expected to win easily" has flipped to the other party. 

Anybody wanna take a guess what seat that was? No cheating!

NY-4 right?

Nope! They have that one under the "competitive" rating. 

Was it one of the Ohio ones?

Nope! (Though I'll concede that this is based on how their standings are frozen right at this moment). 

[South Dakota Democrat]

Georgia projected to be a runoff (NBC).

NBC Decision Desk model now R 221 ± 10 (was 220 ± 10)

How the hell is there a swing of 10 seats either way? That makes no sense no matter who you’re rooting for, doomer or sunshine or anything in between. How a day later is there still a 10 seat variance?

It's a statistical model?

[Hope For A New Era]

When can we expect the last results from CO-03? I want to see it called already!