Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[vileplume]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

The GOP has taken the North Carolina Supreme Court though so expect the Dems to be gerrymandered back down to 3 seats there now the GOP has complete control.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Going into mom mode again: for my Atlas peeps who have been up all night -- GET SOME SLEEP

We have a whole day of hand-wringing, arguing, gloating, whining, celebrating, despairing, and just a little bit of apologizing to do!

I plan on being in bed by six. In the meantime I started a meal. Diabetic meal scheduling...

Yah keep that blood sugar in check, mister.  Be sure you're drinking plenty of water, too

Thanks for the understanding.
The two most valuable drugs for me are insulin and politics.

[jamestroll]

AP-

93% Reporting:

Frisch (Dem) 147,263 (50.9%)
Bobo (GQP) 142,328 (49.1%)

The crazy son of a gun might do it

Ironically, there is a community named "Rifle" within the borders of this district. It was named for Rifle Creek, which was named after an incident involving a rifle.

I believe Boebert is from Rifle and gained notoriety through her gun themed restaurant there.

The place is called Shooter's Grill.

Even as a staunch supporter of the second amendment I have to roll my eyes at that.

I bet the food is incredibly mediocre. Can’t imagine too many restaurants in that area are great, let alone a gimmicky one run by a crazy woman.

I almost went there in 2019 then plans changed. Had pretty good reviews.

There are lots of ski people with tons of money on the western slope, surprising amount of good restaurants. And not just in the big ski towns. I've had great meals in Silverton and Montrose.

I can attest to that!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Heading to bed now. Good night everyone! Probably will be back here in six or so hours.

[Baki]

Where is all this Arizona dooming coming from?

Atlas democrats literally do not know how to cope with winning; they don’t consider it a valid possibility in their minds.

The dooming is stupid. We are winning Arizona. We are winning Nevada. And next month, we are winning Georgia.

I think Masters could get Arizona within 50,000 votes if he does surprisingly well with the remaining votes but he'd have to dramatically overperform to win.

With Nevada I'm not quite sure. The networks are saying that it is 80% reporting (with Clark at about 84%) but NYT says it's 75% reporting with Clark at 78%, each with the same totals. If the networks are right then it could literally be within hundreds of votes in the end. If the New York Times is right then I stand by my prediction that Democrats win by at least a few thousand votes.

Warnock will win his runoff against Walker, I'm confident of that.

With Nevada you probably want to look at it in terms of just raw vote. Cortez Masto has a 22K deficit to erase. If remaining mail in Clarklooks anything like the mail we’ve gotten so far, then probably ~75-80K would be enough to erase that if the rest of the state mail cancels out (which it should).  Ralston keeps throwing this 100K number around for Clark mail; there is reason to believe it’s a plausible figure; it would almost certainly give Cortez Masto a win with a decent pad.

Right, but the raw vote depends on which outlet has accurate tabs on the remaining vote. Ralston's number seems to line up more with Clark County being 84% done. We'll see. If it is all mail then that should be enough for CCM.

All that is left to count in Clark is mail. The ED vote is already accounted for.

[Tekken_Guy]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

The GOP has taken the North Carolina Supreme Court though so expect the Dems to be gerrymandered back down to 3 seats there now the GOP has complete control.

Yes, but all those NY seats are going to flip back. Plus Bacon, Kiggans, Nunn, Kean, etc. are probably in huge trouble.

[Mike88]

A quick look at the seats reporting for the House, the Democrats lead in 215 seats, and the Republicans on 220 seats. Of course, many of these seats are too close to call and in many of them a lot of ballots are still uncounted.

[Mr.Phips]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

The GOP has taken the North Carolina Supreme Court though so expect the Dems to be gerrymandered back down to 3 seats there now the GOP has complete control.

Dems will return the favor in NYS.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

You know what? For the sake of completion and even though the race has been called, I'll finish up my tour around PA from last night.

PART I.

Start off with Beaver County.  The town of Ambridge, PA was once featured on an episode of Unsolved Mysteries where a wooden carved crucifix hanging above a church allegedly opened its eyes.  

This county is one of the few in the state where Oz overperformed relative to Trump.  

With 95% of the vote in: Oz leads 61-37, Trump won 58-40 in 2020.  

--

A staple of its namesake region, Carbon County is home to the final resting place of American athlete extraordinaire Jim Thorpe (and even has a town that was renamed from Mauch Chunk to Jim Thorpe in honor of him).  This was once a Democratic stronghold -- Obama won here in '08, but it has since drifted right like many other ancestrally-Dem industrial counties.  

With 95% of the vote in: Oz leads 60-37, Trump won here 65-33 in 2020.  

--

Located in west-central PA, Clearfield County was once a booming center of the coal and lumber industry (though coal is still mined there).  

With 95% of the vote in: Oz leads 70-27, Trump won here 74-24 in 2020.  

--

Home to Bloomsburg University of PA, Columbia County is a rock-red county that voted for GHW Bush in 1992 before flipping to Clinton in 1996 (the last Democrat to win the county).

With 95% of the vote in: Oz leads 61-36, Trump won here 64-34 in 2020.  

--

In contrast to its northern neighbor of Erie County, Crawford County has only ever voted for a Democratic Presidential candidate three times since 1892 (1896, 1916, and 1964, along with third-party Teddy Roosevelt in 1912).  

With 90% of the vote in: Oz leads 61-37, Trump won here 68-31 (!!!!)

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that Lake will probably win while Drazan will probably lose shows politics has been way too toxically nationalized .

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

PART II. 

Ah! We've arrived at the one and only DELAWARE COUNTY -- or as John King learned from Jake Tapper in 2020: "the locals prefer if I call it Delco".  Delco is home to so many things -- the headquarters of Wawa food markets, a majority of John Heinz National Wildlife Refuge, Villanova University and so on!

With 88% of the vote in, Fetterman leads 61-37.  Biden won here 63-36 in 2020. 

--

At the southwestern corner of the state is ruby-red Greene County, PA.  Like many counties in SW PA, it was once a Democratic stronghold until 2004 (when GWB became only the second Republican prezi candidate to win the county since 1888). 

With 76% of the vote in, Oz leads 71-26.  Trump won here 71-28 in 2020. 

--

At 132 square miles in dimension, Montour County is PA's smallest county by land area. 

With 78% of the vote in, Oz leads 63-33.  Trump won here 60-38 in 2020. 

[vileplume]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

The GOP has taken the North Carolina Supreme Court though so expect the Dems to be gerrymandered back down to 3 seats there now the GOP has complete control.

Dems will return the favor in NYS.

What is thee situation there if you don't mind me asking? I thought Democratic judges were the ones who chucked out the attempted gerrymander. Why would they change their minds now?

[Spectator]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

The GOP has taken the North Carolina Supreme Court though so expect the Dems to be gerrymandered back down to 3 seats there now the GOP has complete control.

Dems will return the favor in NYS.

What is thee situation there if you don't mind me asking? I thought Democratic judges were the ones who chucked out the attempted gerrymander. Why would they change their minds now?

Easy to pass a ballot amendment next year and then gerrymander the hell out of NY and justify it as retaliation for OH or NC if it happens in those states.

[Mr.Phips]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

The GOP has taken the North Carolina Supreme Court though so expect the Dems to be gerrymandered back down to 3 seats there now the GOP has complete control.

Dems will return the favor in NYS.

What is thee situation there if you don't mind me asking? I thought Democratic judges were the ones who chucked out the attempted gerrymander. Why would they change their minds now?

One of those judges had to resign and was replaced by a liberal.

[Enduro]

Looks like a lot of races haven't been called; any predictions on the final partisan make up for the next congress?

[Bernie Derangement Syndrome Haver]

Who would you rather be in Nevada-Sen, MT-01, CO-03, NY-04, and NY-17 at this point?

[LabourJersey]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

The GOP has taken the North Carolina Supreme Court though so expect the Dems to be gerrymandered back down to 3 seats there now the GOP has complete control.

Yes, but all those NY seats are going to flip back. Plus Bacon, Kiggans, Nunn, Kean, etc. are probably in huge trouble.

Yeah, I'd agree. The ground is being set for the Democrats to have a good 2024 in the House, which I wasn't expecting a week or two ago

[YE]

Need about 70k mail ballots and 20k mail ballots in Clark and Washoe for me to be okay about CCM. Keep in mind the ballots can arrive as late as Saturday.

[😥]

Who would you rather be in Nevada-Sen, MT-01, CO-03, NY-04, and NY-17 at this point?

Based on the data I see so far:

NV-Sen: CCM
MT-01: Zinke (it looks like a done deal, to me)
CO-03: Frisch
NY-04: Guillen
NY-17: Lawler

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

PART III.

The big one: Philadelphia County.  A cornerstone of the American Revolution, home to big names like Walt Whitman, Will Smith, Kevin Bacon, the late Kobe Bryant and Bob Saget, and let's not forget the location of the greatest University in the world (the University of Pennsylvania!), there's too many things about Philadelphia to mention here. 

With 88% of the vote in, Fetterman leads 82-17.  Biden won here 81-18 in 2020. 

--

Schuylkill County, PA is home to Hawk Mountain Sanctuary (one of the first places in the world to set aside land for and count birds of prey during migration). 

With 95% of the vote in, Oz leads 64-32.  Trump won here 69-29 in 2020. 

--

Last but not least, Wayne County is the northeastern-most county in PA.  It has a longstanding GOP voting streak at the Presidential level and has not given its votes to a Democrat since 1892 (it was one of four in the state that voted for Barry Goldwater in 1964). 

With >95% of the vote in, Oz leads 65-35.  Trump won here 66-33. 

--

I think that does it! Exits are on your left, be sure to stop by the gift shop on your way out

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lesson to Rs they will never have 241 seats again

[MillennialModerate]

Hobbs should be kicked out of the party for her neglect.

The race is close enough where she could have won

[Neo-Malthusian Misanthrope]

Well I have to say, not what I was expecting, though maybe it was because I was watching Nate Silver move his GOP senate odds by a percentage point a day a bit too closely thanks to wonky Trafalgar polls. The pundits I was following last night seemed rather bullish on Republicans well into the night as well, but I gave up around 1am ET and maybe they were seeing things in Nevada and Arizona that I wasn't, or focusing more on the expected narrow House victory.

Honestly, I was expecting Dems to outperform expectations until about a week or two ago, I really should have stuck with my gut.

[jamestroll]

Hobbs should be kicked out of the party for her neglect.

The race is close enough where she could have won

I think that Kelly and Fontes probably win? Hobbs is dead?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hobbs should be kicked out of the party for her neglect.

The race is close enough where she could have won

You said Rs was gonna win GA and posted 240 R seats in the H