Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Tekken_Guy]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

As of tonight, Trump’s chances of even being the GOP nominee, let alone winning the general election, are going down the drain.

They didn't ditch him after 2020, so I don't see why they'd do so now.

Probably because losing an easily winnable midterm.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

As of tonight, Trump’s chances of even being the GOP nominee, let alone winning the general election, are going down the drain.

They didn't ditch him after 2020, so I don't see why they'd do so now.

Probably because losing an easily winnable midterm.

The thing is though that much of the primary electorate doesn't actually think in terms of complex political strategy.

[MATTROSE94]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

As of tonight, Trump’s chances of even being the GOP nominee, let alone winning the general election, are going down the drain.

I still think Donald Trump will barely eke by in 2024, maybe only winning with the 271 map, though he will be have no power as President and his erratic behavior and hissy fits will contribute to a big Democratic wave in 2026.

[morgieb]

So what it sounds like. Dems need 2 from 4 to hold the Senate:

* Arizona - was looming as a blowout early doors but has tightened. The question is what kind of votes are left over and how late counting skews. My guess is that Kelly probably has enough fat in his margin to survive, but I may be underestimating how Arizona late counting skews. What was his margin at this point in 2020, out of curiosity?

* Georgia - there's probably not quite enough votes left to get Warnock over 50% outright, so to a runoff we go. I think in normal circumstances Walker's deficencies as a candidate will tank his turnout enough for him to lose, but it will be interesting if the Senate was on the line in a runoff and I feel for every Georgian if that is the case.

* Nevada - depends on how the mail ballots skew. A similar kind of skew to the current margin and CCM probably has enough, but the margin isn't so large that a variance or more rural votes left over will change things. Still I think CCM ought to be the favourite.

* Wisconsin - I think this would need a miracle from the Dems to knock off Johnson. It would be great if it happened, but I don't quite think there's enough votes left to decide it especially if there's rural votes left over too.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590282186791321601

Ralston can be an ass but he knows Nevada like the back of his hand. D Hold.

Blake Masters winning, but CCM winning will be an odd result. That means it will come down to Georgia again unless there is a lot of Democratic vote left in Atlanta to count.

I'm not sure how to predict who's going to pull it out in AZ. What's left and who does it favor?

[AZdude]

I've been so excited for the results all night, and now things are crashing back to Earth here in AZ.  I said in the AZ threads, and I still believe, that Kelly is a fantastic candidate and Hobbs is a total mess.  I therefore assumed that Kelly would run ahead and win and Hobbs would trail and probably lose or at least it would be 50/50.

But what depresses the heck out of me is that Kelly is not running substantially ahead of Hobbs in raw vote totals, just a little more than 20,000.  The reason his margin is larger is basically due to the former Lib candidate who is eating up a couple of percentage points.

We'll see what happens over the coming days and (gulp) maybe even weeks.  Late absentees generally aren't as Republican as ED votes, but they are definitely more GOP-friendly than the early absentees which made up the first drop that created a blue mirage.

[Dr. Frankenstein]

So Ron Johnson is going to win reelection by a little over a point? Ffs… they should’ve run Ryan in WI insead.  

[Yoda]

Shock results for the midterm elections. Looks like maybe a wash in the Senate and maybe R+5 in the House. That means the Democrats should be favored to retake the House in 2024 even if Donald Trump (likely) gets re-elected and the Senate in 2026.

As of tonight, Trump’s chances of even being the GOP nominee, let alone winning the general election, are going down the drain.

I could see republicans concluding that they need trump to turn out their base. Remember, after 2012 they didn't do an "autopsy" as promised but just went further right-wing crazy.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Good morning, my Atlas peeps!

Don't really have much more to say considering I'm running on four hours sleep but...good morning!

[MillennialModerate]

All in all I can’t complain about the night.

But Johnson has won - so stop hoping

Arizona looks bleak and Nevada looks worse. We’ll see

[Dr. Frankenstein]

Good morning, my Atlas peeps!

Don't really have much more to say considering I'm running on four hours sleep but...good morning!

GM, 4h here as well. However, we sleep in 4 what others sleep in 10, right? Or something like that. 

[AtorBoltox]

All in all I can’t complain about the night.

But Johnson has won - so stop hoping

Arizona looks bleak and Nevada looks worse. We’ll see

Was a bit worried until I saw who posted this

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

E-Day vote has been counted in Riverside County, another 325k VBM + 10k provisional ballots left to count. Will Rollins is currently up 56.2 - 43.8 against Ken Calvert in CA-41.

I know Calvert will (likely) end up pulling ahead, but I can't recall a time when Calvert was trailing this badly after 3 AM PST. Regardless if Calvert (and pundits) were caught sleeping on this race, I absolutely can't see him running again in 2024.

[Hammy]

Signing off for the night, otherwise I'm going to end up skipping sleep

Final thoughts:

Nevada looks like slightly over 50/50 chance of a Dem hold based on the numbers there
Arizona was disappointing, looked promising earlier, seems like it'll be the first GOP pickup
Georgia's definitely going to a runoff but I'm pessimistic there as the Dems did well in the runoff only due to Trump tainting mail-in voting for the GOP, I don't see anything like that happening this time

51-49 Senate seems the most likely outcome at this point
House definitely looks like a narrower GOP majority than expected, hopefully Dems can pick off Boebert but that's also looking less likely than earlier.

This turned out to be one of my less stressful election nights, in part due to my expectations being so low and the GOP underperforming, though things are starting to go south out west

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Good morning, my Atlas peeps!

Don't really have much more to say considering I'm running on four hours sleep but...good morning!

Welcome back!
I've yet to go asleep. I'm not sure when to go to bed...it's 5.06 AM where I am.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Signing off for the night, otherwise I'm going to end up skipping sleep

Final thoughts:

Nevada looks like slightly over 50/50 chance of a Dem hold based on the numbers there
Arizona was disappointing, looked promising earlier, seems like it'll be the first GOP pickup
Georgia's definitely going to a runoff but I'm pessimistic there as the Dems did well in the runoff only due to Trump tainting mail-in voting for the GOP, I don't see anything like that happening this time

51-49 Senate seems the most likely outcome at this point
House definitely looks like a narrower GOP majority than expected, hopefully Dems can pick off Boebert but that's also looking less likely than earlier.

This turned out to be one of my less stressful election nights, in part due to my expectations being so low and the GOP underperforming, though things are starting to go south out west

Good night man! Sleep well!

[AtorBoltox]

Where is all this Arizona dooming coming from?

[pantsaregood]

All in all I can’t complain about the night.

But Johnson has won - so stop hoping

Arizona looks bleak and Nevada looks worse. We’ll see

Didn't you tell us that you concluded that New Hampshire was a likely Republican senate pickup and then you went looking for yard sign evidence to prove it? As in - you came to a conclusion and then looked for ways to substantiate it?

I'm not sure if you have noticed, but you missed this election as badly as you missed GA 2021 because its a 303 map not a 242 map its called WAVE INSURANCE

[DaleCooper]

Why do people here think that Kelly is losing?

[DaleCooper]

Where is all this Arizona dooming coming from?

I don't get it, it's Nevada they should be worrying about.

[Sestak]

Where is all this Arizona dooming coming from?

Atlas democrats literally do not know how to cope with winning; they don’t consider it a valid possibility in their minds.

The dooming is stupid. We are winning Arizona. We are winning Nevada. And next month, we are winning Georgia.

[MillennialModerate]

All in all I can’t complain about the night.

But Johnson has won - so stop hoping

Arizona looks bleak and Nevada looks worse. We’ll see

Didn't you tell us that you concluded that New Hampshire was a likely Republican senate pickup and then you went looking for yard sign evidence to prove it? As in - you came to a conclusion and then looked for ways to substantiate it?

I'm not sure if you have noticed, but you missed this election as badly as you missed GA 2021 because its a 303 map not a 242 map its called WAVE INSURANCE

I didn’t go looking for it… I drove through Dem areas of NH and saw a million Bolduc signs. And days later polls came out showing him ahead. I bought it - dead wrong

[DaleCooper]

Where is all this Arizona dooming coming from?

Atlas democrats literally do not know how to cope with winning; they don’t consider it a valid possibility in their minds.

The dooming is stupid. We are winning Arizona. We are winning Nevada. And next month, we are winning Georgia.

I think Masters could get Arizona within 50,000 votes if he does surprisingly well with the remaining votes but he'd have to dramatically overperform to win.

With Nevada I'm not quite sure. The networks are saying that it is 80% reporting (with Clark at about 84%) but NYT says it's 75% reporting with Clark at 78%, each with the same totals. If the networks are right then it could literally be within hundreds of votes in the end. If the New York Times is right then I stand by my prediction that Democrats win by at least a few thousand votes.

Warnock will win his runoff against Walker, I'm confident of that.

[President Johnson]

Is the concern for Arizona legitimate? I thought Kelly and Hobbs are on track to win?

As for Wisconsin, I went through the numbers: If Barnes would win 70% again of the remaining Milwaukee vote outstanding, he would run about even with RoJo. Additionally, Dane County is just at 93%, where Barnes is even at 77% of the vote so far. Most rural red counties seem completed or almost through. Am I wrong or could this just be enough for a razor-thin victory? What are the remaining Milawaukee votes? by mail, which would favor Barnes.

[Tekken_Guy]

Signing off for the night, otherwise I'm going to end up skipping sleep

Final thoughts:

Nevada looks like slightly over 50/50 chance of a Dem hold based on the numbers there
Arizona was disappointing, looked promising earlier, seems like it'll be the first GOP pickup
Georgia's definitely going to a runoff but I'm pessimistic there as the Dems did well in the runoff only due to Trump tainting mail-in voting for the GOP, I don't see anything like that happening this time

51-49 Senate seems the most likely outcome at this point
House definitely looks like a narrower GOP majority than expected, hopefully Dems can pick off Boebert but that's also looking less likely than earlier.

This turned out to be one of my less stressful election nights, in part due to my expectations being so low and the GOP underperforming, though things are starting to go south out west

Also how does Walker win the runoff if he couldn’t lead in round 1?