Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Alben Barkley]

Laxalt pulls ahead, RIP.

As expected. CCM will rely on the outstanding mail ballots - and there are probably a lot of them.

Yeah I trust Ralston on this, and it looks like he's all but called it for CCM.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Exits (Fox and CNN) are something.

Abortion matters; the electorate is pro-choice.

Trans issues/school issues aren't important; only 50% of voters (not parents) calling trans discussion in schools as 'too far'.

Parents with kids under 18 more Democratic than voters without.

This is historically unusual, and worth serious study from Democratic strategists.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

The other thing about the Fetterman win is that he is the first Democrat to win that Senate seat since 1962. It's hard to find if Pennsylvania has ever had two Democratic Senators.

It has happened 4 times before (James Buchanan & Daniel Sturgeon, Daniel Sturgeon & Simon Cameron, Richard Brodhead & William Bigler in the 1800s and Joe Guffey & Francis Myers in the 1940s).

Also 2009-2010 with Specter and Casey.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Nevada is going to be extremely close - I don't think CCM has it in the bag at all, and she might be a slight underdog.

She's up by 400 votes currently.

Heller netted ~50,000 from the non-Washoe/Clark counties in 2018. Laxalt is only netting 30K from those counties right now, so you can assume he'll lead by 20K minimum once the rest of them come in (assuming Laxalt matches/exceeds Heller's performance). Can the remaining mail-ins really erase a 20K+ deficit?

Who knows? There's a lot of mail-ins, or so I've heard.

[soundchaser]

Nevada is going to be extremely close - I don't think CCM has it in the bag at all, and she might be a slight underdog.

She's up by 400 votes currently.

Heller netted ~50,000 from the non-Washoe/Clark counties in 2018. Laxalt is only netting 30K from those counties right now, so you can assume he'll lead by 20K minimum once the rest of them come in (assuming Laxalt matches/exceeds Heller's performance). Can the remaining mail-ins really erase a 20K+ deficit?

If, as Ralston seems to think, there are tens of thousands left? Yes, pretty easily.

[Zinneke]

Somebody explain to me why PA and OH are going seperate political routes, was Oz a completely toxic candidate that destroyed the GOP operation in PA? Are rural Ohioans just way more right-wing?

[Alben Barkley]

Exits (Fox and CNN) are something.

Abortion matters; the electorate is pro-choice.

Trans issues/school issues aren't important; only 50% of voters (not parents) calling trans discussion in schools as 'too far'.

Parents with kids under 18 more Democratic than voters without.

This is historically unusual, and worth serious study from Democratic strategists.

Perhaps those parents want their children to grow up in a democracy rather than a fascist dictatorship?

[Sir Mohamed]

Laxalt pulls ahead, RIP.

You realize Kelly is poised to win and Fetterman already declared a winner? And Warnock in a runoff?

[Yoda]

Laxalt pulls ahead, RIP.

As expected. CCM will rely on the outstanding mail ballots - and there are probably a lot of them.

There's reason to believe there's an absolute s*** ton of them, given how insanely low in-person dem turnout was today in Clark.

[philly09]

Maloney now down by only 3,000 votes. He should be able to pull it out.

[Alben Barkley]

Somebody explain to me why PA and OH are going seperate political routes, was Oz a completely toxic candidate that destroyed the GOP operation in PA? Are rural Ohioans just way more right-wing?

Ohio is a whiter, more rural, less educated state.

[Pericles]

Somebody explain to me why PA and OH are going seperate political routes, was Oz a completely toxic candidate that destroyed the GOP operation in PA? Are rural Ohioans just way more right-wing?

It looks like Vance underperformed by a similar amount to Oz, Ohio is just a different, more Republican state.

[LimoLiberal]

Nevada is going to be extremely close - I don't think CCM has it in the bag at all, and she might be a slight underdog.

She's up by 400 votes currently.

Heller netted ~50,000 from the non-Washoe/Clark counties in 2018. Laxalt is only netting 30K from those counties right now, so you can assume he'll lead by 20K minimum once the rest of them come in (assuming Laxalt matches/exceeds Heller's performance). Can the remaining mail-ins really erase a 20K+ deficit?

If, as Ralston seems to think, there are tens of thousands left? Yes, pretty easily.

I hadn't seen this tweet from Ralston, but if true, could be enough for her.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590248790153273345

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Somebody explain to me why PA and OH are going seperate political routes, was Oz a completely toxic candidate that destroyed the GOP operation in PA? Are rural Ohioans just way more right-wing?

Ohio is a whiter, more rural, less educated state.

The general trend over the past few decades has been Ohio being structurally a few to five or six points more Republican than PA.

[H. Ross Peron]

Exits (Fox and CNN) are something.

Abortion matters; the electorate is pro-choice.

Trans issues/school issues aren't important; only 50% of voters (not parents) calling trans discussion in schools as 'too far'.

Parents with kids under 18 more Democratic than voters without.

This is historically unusual, and worth serious study from Democratic strategists.

There are some parallels here to the shift of the military vote to the left in recent years as well, despite it also being considered a conservative institution. It may be that the generational composition of these groups outweighs any selection for conservatism (presumably childless adults under 40 or so are even more left-leaning).

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

I hadn't seen this tweet from Ralston, but if true, could be enough for her.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590248790153273345

What about Sisolak? From what I see, it doesn't look good for him.

[Pericles]

Laxalt pulls ahead, RIP.

You realize Kelly is poised to win and Fetterman already declared a winner? And Warnock in a runoff?

There could still be a few weeks for it all to go wrong. It is theoretically possible that Democrats have won the House but then Walker comes back to win the runoff and Republicans win the Senate, which would be awful but also a hilarious outcome.

[Alben Barkley]

When was the last time MI and PA went D while WI went R? 1968???

(Yes I know they all went D in the governor's races but WI is still going R in the Senate race.)

[Adam Griffin]

That whole article where a Republican pollster said "no private survey had Warnock up" really aged well

I TRIED TO TELL THEM

Do you think Warnock could still hit 50% tonight? Are there enough votes?

Been gone awhile, but no. BK and I disagreed (outright win and runoff, respectively) earlier in the evening looking at the figures, but we're fairly in consensus last I checked. Runoff.

[Sir Mohamed]

I wonder if Oz is enjoying some crudite right now.

He's moving back to NJ!

[soundchaser]

Last thing before I (finally) go to bed: Peltola looks likely to clear 50% in the second round. Good night!

[Sir Mohamed]

When was the last time MI and PA went D while WI went R? 1968???

At which level? WI went D in 1988 while MI and PA went for HW Bush.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Last thing before I (finally) go to bed: Peltola looks likely to clear 50% in the second round. Good night!

Goodnight! Sleep well! Tomorrow is a new day!

[DaleCooper]

I hadn't seen this tweet from Ralston, but if true, could be enough for her.

https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1590248790153273345

What about Sisolak? From what I see, it doesn't look good for him.

Sisolak will likely lose and CCM will likely win.

[Lief 🗽]

Exits (Fox and CNN) are something.

Abortion matters; the electorate is pro-choice.

Trans issues/school issues aren't important; only 50% of voters (not parents) calling trans discussion in schools as 'too far'.

Parents with kids under 18 more Democratic than voters without.

This is historically unusual, and worth serious study from Democratic strategists.

There are some parallels here to the shift of the military vote to the left in recent years as well, despite it also being considered a conservative institution. It may be that the generational composition of these groups outweighs any selection for conservatism (presumably childless adults under 40 or so are even more left-leaning).

Well that and the Democrats are effectively the small c conservative party now, as big c Conservatives have embraced radicalism.