Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Alben Barkley]

I'm hearing that Michels is about to concede in Wisconsin.

[Not Me, Us]

Sorry to bring the party down and it's only at 89% reporting, but Lancaster County (it's pronounced LAN-KESTER people -- home to Lititz, PA where the stage-scaffolding for major concerts and the Super Bowl halftime shows are produced as well as being the home of one my best friends ) is one of the few places thus far where Fetterman appears to be underperforming. 

Oz leads 59-39, Trump won here 57-41.  But again, 89% reporting so this could even out.

Bruh, I even convinced my sister to vote when she wasn't going to. Always count on my home county to disappoint you, I guess.

[emailking]

I did not feel this good two years ago at this exact time.

I thought Trump was gonna win again 😬💀

[Logical]

The Needle (blessed be thy name) has been really poor today. I am disappointed.

[South Dakota Democrat]

I am now regretting my self-imposed prohibition on bourbon tonight.

I think KY doing the right thing about abortion deserves a glass of the good stuff.

Treat yourself!

[7,052,770]

First votes are in and...

Davis (76% reporting)
Lee 54
McMullin 43

Salt Lake (44% reporting)
McMullin 59
Lee 37

Utah (52% reporting)
Lee 62
McMullin 36

Trump's margins were, in 2020, 20, -9, and 40 respectively.

So McMullin doing well for a D-standin, but pretty unlikely to win.

[Ferguson97]

Objectively hilarious if Dems keep the Senate/House with 8% inflation and 44% approval for the President.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Yeah, Biden is gonna run in 2024.

[It’s so Joever]

Sorry to bring the party down and it's only at 89% reporting, but Lancaster County (it's pronounced LAN-KESTER people -- home to Lititz, PA where the stage-scaffolding for major concerts and the Super Bowl halftime shows are produced as well as being the home of one my best friends ) is one of the few places thus far where Fetterman appears to be underperforming. 

Oz leads 59-39, Trump won here 57-41.  But again, 89% reporting so this could even out.

Unsurprising, it’s a D trending area and we are def seeing almost a reversal of trends this specific senate election. I expect Chester and Bucks to also be an underperformance for that reason.

[wbrocks67]

I remember when some people pretended WA-SEN, CO-SEN, NH-SEN, and NY-GOV would all be competitive races, and some especially smug "red wave" posters thought it was inevitable they'd all be closer than WI-SEN/GOV for example.

Ah yes, earlier today.

Good times.

NY-GOV might be one race where the GOP isn't underperforming expectations by that much. It looks to be single digit. Zeldin is still probably giving the GOP 3/4 extra house seats.

Classic NY counting bias lol.

NYT has it tightening two points from here. Which would place Hochul at +7. Maybe that's horribly wrong though and the needle is confused by the beautiful NY State election process.

Yeah, not sure how it still has SPM losing in the end when Westchester has so many votes out, most of which seem to be likely VBM/early.

Seems unlikely Schumer ends up at +15.

[ProgressiveModerate]

I remember when some people pretended WA-SEN, CO-SEN, NH-SEN, and NY-GOV would all be competitive races, and some especially smug "red wave" posters thought it was inevitable they'd all be closer than WI-SEN/GOV for example.

Ah yes, earlier today.

Good times.

NY-GOV might be one race where the GOP isn't underperforming expectations by that much. It looks to be single digit. Zeldin is still probably giving the GOP 3/4 extra house seats.

Classic NY counting bias lol.

NYT has it tightening two points from here. Which would place Hochul at +7. Maybe that's horribly wrong though and the needle is confused by the beautiful NY State election process.

it's a bit hard to know. In 2020 NY was surprisingly close but then Biden's (like Biden + 13) lead grew substantially in the coming weeks. However, NY passed a new election law that seems to change how ballots are counted so that same counting bias may or may not be there, nd it could be flipped.

[pantsaregood]

are we unironically getting a 303 map not a 242 map

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The Needle (blessed be thy name) has been really poor today. I am disappointed.

The Needle cannot fail. It can only be failed.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I am now regretting my self-imposed prohibition on bourbon tonight.

I think KY doing the right thing about abortion deserves a glass of the good stuff.

Treat yourself!

[ultraviolet]

JHK live forecast:

Dem chances:
Senate: 41.3% (-7.9)
House: 36.3% (+8.7)

Says there is a 10% chance of R senate D house

[Dani Rose]

We won NC-13. God is good, we won NC-13.

[Nyvin]

Nunn took the lead in IA-3

[Alben Barkley]

I am now regretting my self-imposed prohibition on bourbon tonight.

I think KY doing the right thing about abortion deserves a glass of the good stuff.

Treat yourself!

I literally don't even have it in the house, unfortunately!

[wbrocks67]

Hassan is now expected to be D+9. This may be one of the absolute biggest misses of the cycle. UMass-Lowel's last poll was D+10, so I guess they're the new gold standard!

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

HOLY

https://twitter.com/beardedcrank/status/1590199619048206336?s=20&t=GV68iEaDU...

[YPestis25]

Things I’m confident saying as of now:  GA-SEN looks like a runoff; PA-SEN will come down to Philadelphia turnout.  Even if Oz is running behind Trump, he can make it up if Philly is not as much of the statewide % as 2020.

Agreed entirely on Georgia, but honestly I feel like PA is quickly moving to being finished. The swings to Fetterman everywhere in Pennsylvania make it pretty difficult for some marginal shifting in Philly to be enough.

[new_patomic]

First votes are in and...

Davis (76% reporting)
Lee 54
McMullin 43

Salt Lake (44% reporting)
McMullin 59
Lee 37

Utah (52% reporting)
Lee 62
McMullin 36

Trump's margins were, in 2020, 20, -9, and 40 respectively.

So McMullin doing well for a D-standin, but pretty unlikely to win.

More or less, yeah.

Will be interesting to see how close he keeps it. Could be rather embarrassing for Lee.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Nunn took the lead in IA-3

Boo hiss

[Not Me, Us]

are we unironically getting a 303 map not a 242 map

You've never explained what you mean by this and I'm so curious.

[politicallefty]

I did not feel this good two years ago at this exact time.

It’s all about expectations.

I can't disagree.

I did not feel this good two years ago at this exact time.

I thought Trump was gonna win again 😬💀

I poured myself a drink after I saw the Miami-Dade results two years ago.