Official 2022 Congressional Election Results Thread

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591975376523497473

[GM Team Member and Acting PPT WB]

If you look carefully at this photo, you can see the math behind them. It’s clear they didn’t have a pre-printed CO-03 card lol.

It also suggests they’re confident they’ve won 210 seats which really isn’t a suprise. But the fact they have what appears to be CA-40 as still competitive is a big lol. They have CA-09, CA-47, and CA-49 in what appears to be the safe column

You can also see they didn't have a pre-printed WA-03 one waaay in the back there.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

👀

https://twitter.com/willrollinsca/status/1592018599371472897

Eh. Doesn't hurt to keep the optimism & his name out if/when he announces his 2024 run.

Still, unless he knows something we don't (Such as Corona breaking his way or more votes left in the Coachella Valley), he can't afford to lose another batch. And he's gonna have to crush it in whatever's left. Quite a tall order, but we'll see. All I know is I wish my county was a lot better when it came to reporting

[Anti Democrat Democrat Club]

Do you think Hassan would have beaten Sununu?

Steve Bullock.

Maybe not this far, but Hassan definitely wins in a squeaker. Hassan is a much more savvy political operative than people let on. Sununu, much like Morse, still has the specter of the abortion ban hanging over his head. It doesn't matter if he repealed the forced ultrasound portion of the bill or the provisions that weakened the life-of-mother exception. He signed the damn bill.

That and the excessive utility hikes that he signed off on feed into corporate greed narrative. I doubt Hassan goes quite as hard as someone like Fetterman but I think she messages against it. His stances on education are awful as well - he has quietly been one of the most conservative governors in the nation. At the end of the day, Chris Sununu is a Republican hack.

As I've said before, I think Sununu is an overrated political operative whose entrenchment is a product of NHDP incompetence. The opposition to Sununu was a single-issue anti-Trump campaign for the first four years of his career. Even with a more competent campaign this cycle, they aren't focusing nearly enough on inflation or education. He's undeniably strong and it'll take a lot, but it's not like he's unbeatable.

[AnOdyssey]

Why was Chuck Schumer's race more close/competitive this year than 2016?

[Dani Rose]

Why was Chuck Schumer's race more close/competitive this year than 2016?

The New York Democratic Party decided to take the year off and just not campaign, at all, for anyone, assuming that they just had every race in the bag by default.

[😥]

Well, I think one thing we can say for sure is that results of this election cycle are pretty weird.

If someone had told me before election day that the Democrats won WA-03 and in OH-09 Marcy Kaptur won by double digits, I would have expected the Democrats holding the House with at least 225 seats.

And vice versa, if someone had told me that the Republicans won NY-03, NY-04 and NY-17 and Mostkowitz in FL-23 won only by a 5-point margin, I would have expected the Republicans holding the House with at least 240 seats.

Instead we have a 220-215 R majority with some Democrats perfectly holding Trump districts, while Republicans gaining and holding few ~Biden+15 districts. This is a perfect example that candidate quality still matters and that the waves this year were very local with massive red wave hitting NY and FL, while massive blue wave hitting MI and PA. I doubt that anyone predicted something like this a week ago

[Ogre Mage]

Exit polls show 72 percent of women ages 18-29 voted for Democrats in House races nationwide. In a pivotal Pennsylvania Senate race, 77 percent of young women voted for embattled Democrat John Fetterman, helping to secure his victory.

Women over 45 delivered the party no advantage at all.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3731564-young-women-broke-hard-for-democrats-in-the-midterms/

It's not a mystery why this occurred. 

[Adam Griffin]

If you look carefully at this photo, you can see the math behind them. It’s clear they didn’t have a pre-printed CO-03 card lol.

It also suggests they’re confident they’ve won 210 seats which really isn’t a suprise. But the fact they have what appears to be CA-40 as still competitive is a big lol. They have CA-09, CA-47, and CA-49 in what appears to be the safe column

You can also see they didn't have a pre-printed WA-03 one waaay in the back there.

And yet another in the "GOP Called" column ("XX-01"). Spent about ten minutes trying to confirm precisely who it is (looks like based on angle of other cards, it's either OPEN R seat or the D candidate's name is much longer than four letters or the R candidate's name).

The only ones that really fit are MT-01 & AZ-01 - but I would assume both of those would have been targets in the first place. IA-01 is another, and PA-01 too...maybe NE-01 or WI-01 on the outside chance. But I assume whichever race it was, it was competitive in the first hours after the polls closed and people had to scramble to include it, which makes me think the first 2 aren't it.

[😥]

And one more thing, while I predict that the Republicans will have a majority in the House with 220 seats, the Democrats still have a small chance of keeping their majority,  and we can't rule it out. And in this regard, it will be very funny to watch if the path of the Democrats to the majority lays through NY-22, CO-03, which everyone has already written off, and one of CA/AZ seats

[Adam Griffin]

As of right now (obviously plenty of the West Coast is not finalized):

2020 President - 2022 House Swing Map:

[Yoda]

Imagine if the GOP "didn't" take the House majority,  what the heck would they have to celebrate across the entire country?   Nevada Gov seat?   LOL

Comrade Johnson hanging on in WI. That's about it. They lost everything else that was realistically  competitive.

[Pericles]

Imagine if the GOP "didn't" take the House majority,  what the heck would they have to celebrate across the entire country?   Nevada Gov seat?   LOL

By the looks of it, the popular vote. I hope they enjoy it as much as we did in 2016.

[Niemeyerite]

Trump can just say now that Republicans didn't meet expectations because of abortion and that the GOP waves in NY and FL happened precisely because those are his States and people associate the GOP brand with him more there 😂

[Yoda]

What's the % that Sinema runs 3rd party?

I honestly have no idea, but at this point she would get more votes from republicans than democrats. Democrats and indies would see through her obvious spoiler act and I'm guessing more Indies vote for the Marine veteran than the do-nothing narcissistic attention whore.

[MillennialModerate]

Have to think NBC’s projection will go up to 220-215.

I would’ve been satisfied with 219 too. But barring an overwhelming California final batch of votes. 220 is where we are going to finish.

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591975376523497473

Can someone bring me up to speed on this? In CO, when they say "cure" a ballot, is that b/c a signature is missing, or that the signature on the ballot does not "match" the signature that some government body has on "file" for that voter?

[MillennialModerate]

What's the % that Sinema runs 3rd party?

I honestly have no idea, but at this point she would get more votes from republicans than democrats. Democrats and indies would see through her obvious spoiler act and I'm guessing more Indies vote for the Marine veteran than the do-nothing narcissistic attention whore.

I’m not so sure. And in a state like AZ that is so close… I think Sinema - might just pull that

IF she even wants to run. I’m convinced she doesn’t.

[MillennialModerate]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591975376523497473

Can someone bring me up to speed on this? In CO, when they say "cure" a ballot, is that b/c a signature is missing, or that the signature on the ballot does not "match" the signature that some government body has on "file" for that voter?

What are the odds that every single vote is for him? And wouldn’t the military ballots overrun the cured ones? This seems like some real wishful thinking

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591975376523497473

Can someone bring me up to speed on this? In CO, when they say "cure" a ballot, is that b/c a signature is missing, or that the signature on the ballot does not "match" the signature that some government body has on "file" for that voter?

I think it means salting the vote, then leaving it to hang for 2-3 weeks in a dry environment.

Seriously though, I believe it means verifying an unsigned ballot with the original voter's signature (or, at its broadest, allowing the voter to fix any errors that may have occurred while keeping their actual vote unchanged). 

[😥]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591975376523497473

Maybe it's a dumb question, but do this tweet means that Frisch's campaign found out like 1150 ballots and already cured 250 of them, while 900 other ballots still needs to be cured, or they still don't have these 900 ballots and need to found them out before curing them?

[Woody]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591975376523497473

Seems legit.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591975376523497473

Seems legit.

Y'know, Woodbury -- I actually agree that it might be helpful if she had included what "cured" means.  It's above ground (kinda like how the IRS will ask you for more info if you've left anything out of your tax return), but her tweet isn't worded the best. 

I mean look at the confusion that her wording has caused even a few posters here who are in tune with how elections work.  

[Yoda]

https://twitter.com/ericareport/status/1591975376523497473

Can someone bring me up to speed on this? In CO, when they say "cure" a ballot, is that b/c a signature is missing, or that the signature on the ballot does not "match" the signature that some government body has on "file" for that voter?

I think it means salting the vote, then leaving it to hang for 2-3 weeks in a dry environment.

Seriously though, I believe it means verifying an unsigned ballot with the original voter's signature (or, at its broadest, allowing the voter to fix any errors that may have occurred while keeping their actual vote unchanged). 

Haha, I suppose that joke has been begging to be made as much as curing has come up lately.

Now that I reread the tweet I realize it didn't say anything about signatures at all.

[Adam Griffin]

What are the odds that every single vote is for him? And wouldn’t the military ballots overrun the cured ones? This seems like some real wishful thinking

There's fairly good conventional wisdom that'd suggest these ballots would lean toward him more so than the district at-large. Conflating "veteran" with "active duty [deployed] servicemember" is a mistake many often make when deriving partisan makeup.

However, these ballots are technically overseas ballots, which means they include military and civilians residing abroad.

Just as one example (as I was tracking each batch as it arrived in the days that followed), Biden won the post-ED overseas ballots in GA by close to 15 points in 2020. Yes, Biden did better with active overseas servicemembers (and civilians abroad) than he did among the at-large civilian population. Some of this was solely because "Trump", some was because the racial and ethnic composition of overseas servicemembers can sometimes be a bit less white & some was due to civilians abroad being much more liberal on average, but those actively serving overseas who vote aren't anywhere as R as "veterans".

In truth, perhaps the servicemembers are to the right of the jurisdiction (but still to the left of veterans), but the percentage that are civilian overseas ballots will rip the final totals to the left of the overall electorate in almost all cases.

It sucks that most states don't list results for this category completely separate, which is why I think sometimes people think it's just as R of a group as any other batch of current/former servicemembers (while also ignoring that heavily-D overseas civilians are included as well).