I think if you subtract 5 the AG candidate it's realistic, I think he's gonna give Ellison a scare on election night, but Ellison narrowly wins
I think Ellison loses on a small leftward swing from 2020, honestly.
MN/WI/IA all have a pretty unique dynamic in that they're some of the last places in the country where the GOP can still expect to make gains persuading rural white voters, rather than just trying to juice turnout. The world where Johnson wins by a lot (you've seen polls with Democratic house effects showing him up 6 points before the recent GCB improvement; he may be on track to win by low double-digits) is a world where Jensen might eke it out, sure. (And that is in fact still a world where Whitmer/Shapiro might be winning as well.)
