Pennsylvania 2008

[Keystone Phil]

Is Al a hack then?

You are much worse and have a record of being a hack.

You choose to be a hack in regards to everything so I'm not going to waste my time explaining why a Kerry win in a district doesn't mean an automatic Dem win.

Perhaps you should reread my post:

It's drawn to be a Democratic district. This is not the old PA-12.

Hell, look at this way, the GOP currently holds a whopping 7 seats won by Kerry, and these are all traditionally Republican districts that just recently swung to the Democrats. Murtha's district is not like that at all.

This district is nothing like NY-25 or WA-08.
[/quote]

Bottom line, though, is that this district will be a tossup when Murtha is gone. Irey is working her way up. Only getting 61% of the vote is bad for Murtha.

[Mr.Phips]

It's not flipping, with or without Murtha.

Thanks, hack.

Let me address the Dent points first. The reason why he did poorly was because of the year. Originally, the Dems weren't going to run anyone. They then decided to have a write in campaign on primary day and got their guy on the ballot. The guy is a no name and was obviously not funded. If there was a more credible challenger, Dent's margin would have been smaller but he still would have held on. The man is personally very popular up there.

For 2008, the word is that the Dems are going after popular State Senator Lisa Boscolla to challenge Dent. I thought Dent would have a fairly easy time but I have been assured by someone that it would be close. If Boscolla doesn't run, Dent is fine.

As for the other seats, I see the 4th, 8th and 10th (almost definite according to everyone especially since it is a Presidential election year but I still worry that Carney could be a Holden) switching.

If Kanjorski retires, the 11th could flip but the Dems will benefit from the Presidential election turnout. If Murtha was to retire for whatever reason, look for the 12th to go. I'm holding off on saying that these two will switch hands at this point since both are likely to stay.

Sestak is staying as long as he wants. Sorry guys, Gerlach wins again.

You see the 8th switching?  You do realize that even John Kerry won this district, right?  Murphy will have little trouble here.  The 4th is also a traditionally Democratic district, Hart was the only Republican ever to represent the district.

So because Kerry won the swing district, it is staying Dem? No. It switched this past year because of a bad year for the GOP. Fitz was very well liked but he got swept up in the tide. He's coming back and he'll win. To say that Murphy has little trouble in the 8th is a sign of someone who doesn't know much about the district.

Hart was the only Republican to represent the 4th and they liked her. She'll know to campaign her ass off in 2008 after this upset. 

Nobody knows if either of these guys are running again.  If Fitz was that popular, he would have won this year, as would have Hart.   They were both way too far to the right in both of these districts on economic issues. 

I know a lot about PA-08.  I know that when it does vote Republican and keep that Rep., they have to be very moderate to liberal in the mold of Jim Greenwood.  They probably wouldn't even elect him now as the district has changed so much. 

[Keystone Phil]

Nobody knows if either of these guys are running again.  If Fitz was that popular, he would have won this year, as would have Hart.   They were both way too far to the right in both of these districts on economic issues.

Actually, I do know that Fitz is in. I know a little more about this than you do. As for his popularity, he was running in a bad year against an Iraq war veterna. He barely lost. People still like the guy. Once Murphy's star falls, Fitz is back in. Hart's case was her own fault. The woman ignored the national GOP when they said she had a real fight on her hands. She's still popular and, like Fitz, very well known. She is coming back.

And where do you dream up these ideas about them being too far right on economics specifically? Hart wasn't "too far right" in 2004, 2002, etc.? Do you realize that Fitz was actually rather close to the center on economics and had a significant amount of union backers? Your comments show that you clearly don't know what you're talking about. 

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Not true at all. They elected Fitz in 2004 (Let's hear the whining..."He had a weak opponent, blah, blah, blah...") and just barely lost in 2006. If they have to have a moderate to liberal Republican than why would Fitz come so very close?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

So Phil, what makes you think PA-12 will become one of only 8 seats in the country won by Kerry held by a Republican? What does it have in common with the other whopping 7 currently?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Only getting 61% of the vote is bad for Murtha.

True o/c; he underperformed in the west of the district, quite badly in places (only took 63% in Fayette (and note that his district doesn't include the east of that county), failed to crack 60% in Greene...), although he still did fairly well in the areas he brought over from his old district.
But that says more about Murtha, and the sort of media exposure he's been getting in recent years, than anything else; PA-12 really isn't the sort of district that the Democrats have any business losing. Odd things do happen in your state though; the working class suburbs of Pittsburgh aren't exactly the sort of place you'd expect a politician like Santorum to win in.

[Mr.Phips]

Nobody knows if either of these guys are running again.  If Fitz was that popular, he would have won this year, as would have Hart.   They were both way too far to the right in both of these districts on economic issues.

Actually, I do know that Fitz is in. I know a little more about this than you do. As for his popularity, he was running in a bad year against an Iraq war veterna. He barely lost. People still like the guy. Once Murphy's star falls, Fitz is back in. Hart's case was her own fault. The woman ignored the national GOP when they said she had a real fight on her hands. She's still popular and, like Fitz, very well known. She is coming back. 

Well, if they just lost because it was a bad year than why did people like Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, Deb Pryce, and Heather Wilson survive?

And where do you dream up these ideas about them being too far right on economics specifically? Hart wasn't "too far right" in 2004, 2002, etc.? Do you realize that Fitz was actually rather close to the center on economics and had a significant amount of union backers? Your comments show that you clearly don't know what you're talking about.  [/quote]

Well, for one thing they both voted against raising the minimum wage and for Bush's tax cuts for billionaires.  They were also ready to vote to cut Social Security.

[bullmoose88]

It's not flipping, with or without Murtha.

Thanks, hack.

Let me address the Dent points first. The reason why he did poorly was because of the year. Originally, the Dems weren't going to run anyone. They then decided to have a write in campaign on primary day and got their guy on the ballot. The guy is a no name and was obviously not funded. If there was a more credible challenger, Dent's margin would have been smaller but he still would have held on. The man is personally very popular up there.

For 2008, the word is that the Dems are going after popular State Senator Lisa Boscolla to challenge Dent. I thought Dent would have a fairly easy time but I have been assured by someone that it would be close. If Boscolla doesn't run, Dent is fine.

As for the other seats, I see the 4th, 8th and 10th (almost definite according to everyone especially since it is a Presidential election year but I still worry that Carney could be a Holden) switching.

If Kanjorski retires, the 11th could flip but the Dems will benefit from the Presidential election turnout. If Murtha was to retire for whatever reason, look for the 12th to go. I'm holding off on saying that these two will switch hands at this point since both are likely to stay.

Sestak is staying as long as he wants. Sorry guys, Gerlach wins again.

You see the 8th switching?  You do realize that even John Kerry won this district, right?  Murphy will have little trouble here.  The 4th is also a traditionally Democratic district, Hart was the only Republican ever to represent the district.

So because Kerry won the swing district, it is staying Dem? No. It switched this past year because of a bad year for the GOP. Fitz was very well liked but he got swept up in the tide. He's coming back and he'll win. To say that Murphy has little trouble in the 8th is a sign of someone who doesn't know much about the district.

Hart was the only Republican to represent the 4th and they liked her. She'll know to campaign her ass off in 2008 after this upset. 

Nobody knows if either of these guys are running again.  If Fitz was that popular, he would have won this year, as would have Hart.   They were both way too far to the right in both of these districts on economic issues. 

I know a lot about PA-08.  I know that when it does vote Republican and keep that Rep., they have to be very moderate to liberal in the mold of Jim Greenwood.  They probably wouldn't even elect him now as the district has changed so much. 

As a Pa-08er...George W. Bush basically screwed Fitzpatrick in the district. Iraq and Bush's general err...incompetency outweigehed Fitzpatrick's popularity and dampened support from traditional Republican areas in central and upper Bucks county (where the GOP traditionally builds its majorities).


Fitz's union support actually helped him run pretty well in lower Bucks..but GOP voters up north didn't feel so enthused because of Dubya and Iraq.

Hence Fitz's 40,000 vote majority in Bucks in 04 turned into a 1,000 vote majority and the normally democratic areas of Montco and Philadelphia (added to turn PA 13 more republican) killed him.

That said, Bucks is a bit different than the other Philadelphia collar counties. It still has a much better county Republican party, and people seem happy with the GOP in control (of course the dems are strong enough to keep the GOP fairly honest).

But, I say this race leans Murphy in 08...Bucks loves incumbents. It needs a either a special challenger (Greenwood over Kostymeyer) a national wave (Murphy) or some strange circumstance (Kostymeyer losing his seat in the 80s, and regaining it 2 years later...which might be a sign, albeit small, for Fitz).


I would say its Murphy's race to lose...but I thought that was true of Fitz in 06 and he got taken down on an anti-bush referendum. But Murphy hasn't done anything horrible so far. (All 20-25 days of his term).

[Mr.Phips]

It's not flipping, with or without Murtha.

Thanks, hack.

Let me address the Dent points first. The reason why he did poorly was because of the year. Originally, the Dems weren't going to run anyone. They then decided to have a write in campaign on primary day and got their guy on the ballot. The guy is a no name and was obviously not funded. If there was a more credible challenger, Dent's margin would have been smaller but he still would have held on. The man is personally very popular up there.

For 2008, the word is that the Dems are going after popular State Senator Lisa Boscolla to challenge Dent. I thought Dent would have a fairly easy time but I have been assured by someone that it would be close. If Boscolla doesn't run, Dent is fine.

As for the other seats, I see the 4th, 8th and 10th (almost definite according to everyone especially since it is a Presidential election year but I still worry that Carney could be a Holden) switching.

If Kanjorski retires, the 11th could flip but the Dems will benefit from the Presidential election turnout. If Murtha was to retire for whatever reason, look for the 12th to go. I'm holding off on saying that these two will switch hands at this point since both are likely to stay.

Sestak is staying as long as he wants. Sorry guys, Gerlach wins again.

You see the 8th switching?  You do realize that even John Kerry won this district, right?  Murphy will have little trouble here.  The 4th is also a traditionally Democratic district, Hart was the only Republican ever to represent the district.

So because Kerry won the swing district, it is staying Dem? No. It switched this past year because of a bad year for the GOP. Fitz was very well liked but he got swept up in the tide. He's coming back and he'll win. To say that Murphy has little trouble in the 8th is a sign of someone who doesn't know much about the district.

Hart was the only Republican to represent the 4th and they liked her. She'll know to campaign her ass off in 2008 after this upset. 

Nobody knows if either of these guys are running again.  If Fitz was that popular, he would have won this year, as would have Hart.   They were both way too far to the right in both of these districts on economic issues. 

I know a lot about PA-08.  I know that when it does vote Republican and keep that Rep., they have to be very moderate to liberal in the mold of Jim Greenwood.  They probably wouldn't even elect him now as the district has changed so much. 

As a Pa-08er...George W. Bush basically screwed Fitzpatrick in the district. Iraq and Bush's general err...incompetency outweigehed Fitzpatrick's popularity and dampened support from traditional Republican areas in central and upper Bucks county (where the GOP traditionally builds its majorities).


Fitz's union support actually helped him run pretty well in lower Bucks..but GOP voters up north didn't feel so enthused because of Dubya and Iraq.

Hence Fitz's 40,000 vote majority in Bucks in 04 turned into a 1,000 vote majority and the normally democratic areas of Montco and Philadelphia (added to turn PA 13 more republican) killed him.

That said, Bucks is a bit different than the other Philadelphia collar counties. It still has a much better county Republican party, and people seem happy with the GOP in control (of course the dems are strong enough to keep the GOP fairly honest).

But, I say this race leans Murphy in 08...Bucks loves incumbents. It needs a either a special challenger (Greenwood over Kostymeyer) a national wave (Murphy) or some strange circumstance (Kostymeyer losing his seat in the 80s, and regaining it 2 years later...which might be a sign, albeit small, for Fitz). 

Kostymeyer came back in 1982 because of the recession that pushed unemployment rates in the area up to 13%.  It should also be known that the incumbent that he beat in 1982 came back in 1984 and lost.

[Speed of Sound]

Gerlach can only fall in one scenario: One where the Dems of the district get that the people there do not want Lois Murphy. Until they get that, consider the seat Gerlach's. Otherwise, theres a chance, especially if things dont change anytime soon.

[Mr.Phips]

Gerlach can only fall in one scenario: One where the Dems of the district get that the people there do not want Lois Murphy. Until they get that, consider the seat Gerlach's. Otherwise, theres a chance, especially if things dont change anytime soon.

Lois Murphy will not run again.  I am certain.  They are trying to get Dan Wofford to run who nearly beat Gerlach in the Republican sweep of 2002.

[bergie72]

I can definitely see the 10th switching back to (R).  Carney snuck in because of the Sherwood scandal and Bush-backlash, but without the scandal in the news, the country-folk will go back to the party and elect another Republican.

11 is safe, IMHO.  With Wilkes-Barre, Scranton, Hazleton and suburbs all in the 11th (mild case of gerrymandering), Kanjorski would have to really screw up to lose his seat.  Even if he reitres (haven't heard any rumors to this point), I think this is a safe seat for the Dems.

Now if only we could get a 3rd party candidate elected from PA   :-)

[Keystone Phil]

Well, if they just lost because it was a bad year than why did people like Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, Deb Pryce, and Heather Wilson survive?

Those people were ready for tough races and Hart refused to take her race all that seriously. It was a mistake on her part. Things like that do happen.

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Yet they both were popular in their districts (Fitz was the most popular Commissioner in Bucks county and take a look at Hart's big victories in her Dem district).

Gerlach can only fall in one scenario: One where the Dems of the district get that the people there do not want Lois Murphy. Until they get that, consider the seat Gerlach's. Otherwise, theres a chance, especially if things dont change anytime soon.

That's why I am praying for Murphy again... 

Gerlach can only fall in one scenario: One where the Dems of the district get that the people there do not want Lois Murphy. Until they get that, consider the seat Gerlach's. Otherwise, theres a chance, especially if things dont change anytime soon.

Lois Murphy will not run again.  I am certain.  They are trying to get Dan Wofford to run who nearly beat Gerlach in the Republican sweep of 2002.

What does Wofford bring? 2002 was close but they're going to need someone special to crack Gerlach's 51%.

[Mr.Phips]

Well, if they just lost because it was a bad year than why did people like Chris Shays, Jim Gerlach, Deb Pryce, and Heather Wilson survive?

Those people were ready for tough races and Hart refused to take her race all that seriously. It was a mistake on her part. Things like that do happen.

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Yet they both were popular in their districts (Fitz was the most popular Commissioner in Bucks county and take a look at Hart's big victories in her Dem district).

People like Mirk Kirk in IL-10 and Mike Ferguson in NJ-07 didn't take their races seriously in their Dem leaning districts yet they still won.

Hart won big before 2006 because she basically went unopposed in 2000, 2002, and 2004.  When they finally put up a populist Democrat like Altmire, they chose Altmire.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Yet they both were popular in their districts (Fitz was the most popular Commissioner in Bucks county

How many people even know who their county commissioner is?

[Keystone Phil]

People like Mirk Kirk in IL-10 and Mike Ferguson in NJ-07 didn't take their races seriously in their Dem leaning districts yet they still won.

You're just being annoying now.

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Oh, right. Of course. There's no way she was popular at all because she was "basically unopposed." I love the excuses.

 

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And if Hart had taken the race seriously, Altmire would have disappeared. If it wasn't that bad of a year for Hart, Altmire would have been nothing. Not every year will be like 2006 for the Dems. Hart is taking the loss pretty badly (let's say I heard this from a very, very credible source) and obviously regrets not taking the race seriously. She's already running again and running hard.

[NewFederalist]

Now if only we could get a 3rd party candidate elected from PA   :-)

After what the courts have done to Nader and Romanelli perhaps a better statement might be "Now if we could only get a 3rd party candidate TO RUN in PA"

[Mr.Phips]

People like Mirk Kirk in IL-10 and Mike Ferguson in NJ-07 didn't take their races seriously in their Dem leaning districts yet they still won.

You're just being annoying now.

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Oh, right. Of course. There's no way she was popular at all because she was "basically unopposed." I love the excuses.

 

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And if Hart had taken the race seriously, Altmire would have disappeared. If it wasn't that bad of a year for Hart, Altmire would have been nothing. Not every year will be like 2006 for the Dems. Hart is taking the loss pretty badly (let's say I heard this from a very, very credible source) and obviously regrets not taking the race seriously. She's already running again and running hard.

Well, Altmire has the advantages of incumbency now and is already building up a large warchest.  Im sure he will ask the voters of PA-04 if they want to go back to a Republican majority who would not raise the minimum wage, raise middle class taxes, and cut Social Security. 

[TeePee4Prez]

Gerlach can only fall in one scenario: One where the Dems of the district get that the people there do not want Lois Murphy. Until they get that, consider the seat Gerlach's. Otherwise, theres a chance, especially if things dont change anytime soon.

State Sen. Andy Dinniman and State Rep. Mike Gerber are mentioned as potential candidates.  I think Gerber could pull it off!

[Keystone Phil]

Gerlach can only fall in one scenario: One where the Dems of the district get that the people there do not want Lois Murphy. Until they get that, consider the seat Gerlach's. Otherwise, theres a chance, especially if things dont change anytime soon.

State Sen. Andy Dinniman and State Rep. Mike Gerber are mentioned as potential candidates.  I think Gerber could pull it off!

We don't even know if Gerber is in the 6th. If he was, it would be a tough race (as usual) and Gerber, depending on the year, might have the edge. He is a good candidate. However, he is building up a lot of power in the House and will probably want to stay.

Dinniman is the one that everyone seems to be talking about. He has a record of winning over Republican voters (he has his seat because of a special election in a very Republican Senate district) so he might be able to do it. I think Gerlach still has the edge in this race.

[TeePee4Prez]

Gerlach can only fall in one scenario: One where the Dems of the district get that the people there do not want Lois Murphy. Until they get that, consider the seat Gerlach's. Otherwise, theres a chance, especially if things dont change anytime soon.

State Sen. Andy Dinniman and State Rep. Mike Gerber are mentioned as potential candidates.  I think Gerber could pull it off!

We don't even know if Gerber is in the 6th. If he was, it would be a tough race (as usual) and Gerber, depending on the year, might have the edge. He is a good candidate. However, he is building up a lot of power in the House and will probably want to stay.

Dinniman is the one that everyone seems to be talking about. He has a record of winning over Republican voters (he has his seat because of a special election in a very Republican Senate district) so he might be able to do it. I think Gerlach still has the edge in this race.

Dinniman's Senate District overlaps a lot of the Dems' Achilles' Heel in PA 6- Chester County.  I definitely think either one could pull it off.  If the situation doens't improve for the GOP, the Dems will put someone other than Lois for the Dem slot.