Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two
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  Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two  (Read 24606 times)
brucejoel99
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« Reply #50 on: October 20, 2022, 11:06:56 AM »
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #51 on: October 20, 2022, 11:09:11 AM »
Quote from: Torrain on October 20, 2022, 11:03:26 AM
Quote from: H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY on October 20, 2022, 11:00:32 AM
Quote from: Torrain on October 20, 2022, 10:54:28 AM
The Times reckons the 1922 will set a 100 nomination threshold - so max of three candidates, likely excluding Boris unless the entire ERG backs him.

Would also mean a maximum of 3 candidates (quite possibly only 1 or 2) - meaning the odds of a deal being struck (Mordaunt-Sunak, or equivalent) probably go way up.

I’ve been switching between here and r/ukpolitics all morning and it turns out it’s all the same comments! Wink
Sometimes it's nice to take the temperature of both forums on a post - lurk long enough over there and you'll run into several Atlas exiles...

There and on r/jeopardy (hi brucejoel).
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #52 on: October 20, 2022, 11:14:21 AM »
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parochial boy
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« Reply #53 on: October 20, 2022, 11:21:40 AM »
This whole exercise is just deeply pathetic and embarrassing.

That is all.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #54 on: October 20, 2022, 11:28:17 AM »
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Born to Slay. Forced to Work.
leecannon
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« Reply #55 on: October 20, 2022, 11:31:44 AM »
« Edited: October 20, 2022, 11:37:44 AM by Peltola for God Empress »
Anyone who declares their intention to run to be leader should immediately be disqualified on grounds of insanity. They ought to just put all the MP’s (and the lettuce’s) name in a hat and who gets drawn is forced to be PM against their will.
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TheTide
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« Reply #56 on: October 20, 2022, 11:33:11 AM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on October 20, 2022, 11:28:17 AM


He hasn't made any public statement (even in tweet form) of any kind since the day of the Queen's death apparently. Probably wise for his leadership ambitions. 
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TheTide
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« Reply #57 on: October 20, 2022, 11:34:59 AM »
At least 100 nominations needed, with nominations closing at 2PM on Monday.
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #58 on: October 20, 2022, 11:35:13 AM »
100 nominees threshold seems confirmed by Brady.
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #59 on: October 20, 2022, 11:36:02 AM »
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Torrain
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« Reply #60 on: October 20, 2022, 11:39:04 AM »
Quote from: Peltola for God Empress on October 20, 2022, 11:31:44 AM
Anyone who declares their intention to run to be leader should immediately be disqualified on grounds of insanity. They ought to just put all the MP’s (and the lettuce’s) name in a hat and who gets drawn is forced to be PM against their will.
Instructions unclear - Michael Fabricant is now PM.
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Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
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« Reply #61 on: October 20, 2022, 11:39:41 AM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on October 20, 2022, 11:36:02 AM


I wonder why they're taking the risk of ending up with 3 candidates. If they put the threshold at 120 it would guarantee just 2 candidates, all that's needed is the members vote.
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TheTide
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« Reply #62 on: October 20, 2022, 11:41:24 AM »
Quote from: brucejoel99 on October 20, 2022, 11:36:02 AM


I wonder what the gap will be between the election of the leader and the changeover of PMs. Can't imagine that they will want to hang around, even until the next day.
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It's Perro Sanxe wot won it
Mimoha
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« Reply #63 on: October 20, 2022, 11:42:57 AM »
Brady also mentioned that if there is only one candidate remaining on Monday they will immediately become PM without a confirmatory vote from the members.
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Sestak
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« Reply #64 on: October 20, 2022, 11:43:20 AM »
So who do we think this online vote thing will favor?
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H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY
Alfred F. Jones
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« Reply #65 on: October 20, 2022, 11:43:32 AM »
Quote from: TheTide on October 20, 2022, 11:41:24 AM
Quote from: brucejoel99 on October 20, 2022, 11:36:02 AM


I wonder what the gap will be between the election of the leader and the changeover of PMs. Can't imagine that they will want to hang around, even until the next day.


Truss was installed the next day. This one might be immediate.
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TheTide
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« Reply #66 on: October 20, 2022, 11:44:23 AM »
Quote from: Sestak on October 20, 2022, 11:43:20 AM
So who do we think this online vote thing will favor?

Probably hackers.
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omar04
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« Reply #67 on: October 20, 2022, 11:47:49 AM »
I'd like for Sunak to be elected and resign in even less time
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TheTide
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« Reply #68 on: October 20, 2022, 11:59:31 AM »
Given that law and order and immigration matters are most pressing to a lot of the right, maybe Sunak and/or Mourdant will reach out with the promise of an ERGer in the Home Office (probably Braverman again). This might make it a coronation if only one of Sunak and Mourdant stand.
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TheTide
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« Reply #69 on: October 20, 2022, 12:16:22 PM »
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Conservatopia
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« Reply #70 on: October 20, 2022, 12:19:11 PM »
Who could run?
Here is my estimation of people who could theoretically clear 100 nominations:

Could reach 100 without any pacts:
Rishi Sunak
Ben Wallace

Could only be nominated if they had a pact with someone else:
Penny Mordaunt
Boris Johnson
Sajid Javid

Probably not clearing 100:
Grant Shapps
Brandon Lewis

No chance:
Suella Braverman
Kemi Badenoch
Therese Coffey
Nadhim Zahawi
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TheTide
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« Reply #71 on: October 20, 2022, 12:24:25 PM »
Sunak isn't likely to reach ~260 nominations (which would keep anyone else from reaching the ballot) but I think it's quite possible that he reaches 179, which would mean a majority and would thus run the risk of another leader without the support of the majority of the parliamentary party if it goes any further. At that point he would be well advised to make offers to other factions, or maybe he's done that already.

By all indications he's been running the most active unofficial campaign for the past few weeks.
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YL
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« Reply #72 on: October 20, 2022, 12:29:33 PM »
Quote from: TheTide on October 20, 2022, 11:34:59 AM
At least 100 nominations needed, with nominations closing at 2PM on Monday.

That should be enough to stop Johnson.  At least I hope so...
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #73 on: October 20, 2022, 12:37:21 PM »
Writers bringing back the "indicative vote" classic:


Still, potentially not-insignificant even if it doesn't lead to a coronation, though:


Could presumably sway some members on the margins, if not more after the recent instability.
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #74 on: October 20, 2022, 12:41:17 PM »
Quote from: TheTide on October 20, 2022, 12:16:22 PM


How could there be a second ballot if there mathematically can't be more than 3 candidates, and 2 need to go to the membership vote? Huh
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