Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

[Torrain]

It's perhaps worth noting that even Guido Fawkes aren't confident Johnson has hit the threshold (they're currently about at about 70 backers for Truss), and shared the claim with some hesitancy - which is rather out of character for them. Christian Calgie hasn't said a word.

Part of me is wondering - this is the kind of the thing Johnson would do if he wasn't going to run though, right? Especially the wording of the Mason statement, as TheTide points out.

A hypothetical: Johnson raced home from holiday because he thought he had a decent chance. It became clear this morning that they didn't have the support of either 100 MPs, or expect to be embarrased in the indicative ballot, harming Johnson's chances at a later comeback. To save face, Johnson's allies release a statement saying that he's got the votes, and but is stil undecided about running. Johnson announces he is standing back "for the good of the party", and makes hell for Sunak on the backbenches, blaming him for the next election result.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I mean, Boris is already de facto running and everyone knows it. If he can't get 100 then yes he'll probably withdraw to avoid humiliation, but the damage is done. His lack of support in the parliamentary party has been exposed which is a bad sign for any future comeback.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1583838954138501121?s=20&t=rHJcwo...

[Cassius]

I mean, Boris is already de facto running and everyone knows it. If he can't get 100 then yes he'll probably withdraw to avoid humiliation, but the damage is done. His lack of support in the parliamentary party has been exposed which is a bad sign for any future comeback.

I’m not so sure. In any other circumstance (and I can’t see them setting the bar for nominations this high in any future leadership election) he’d be comfortably on the ballot. The fact that he’s been able to get almost a fifth of the parliamentary party to come out and endorse him for a comeback less than two months after his defenestration shows that he still has a big base of support within the party.

[TheTide]

Rumour that Badenoch is about to back Sunak.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I mean, Boris is already de facto running and everyone knows it. If he can't get 100 then yes he'll probably withdraw to avoid humiliation, but the damage is done. His lack of support in the parliamentary party has been exposed which is a bad sign for any future comeback.

I’m not so sure. In any other circumstance (and I can’t see them setting the bar for nominations this high in any future leadership election) he’d be comfortably on the ballot. The fact that he’s been able to get almost a fifth of the parliamentary party to come out and endorse him for a comeback less than two months after his defenestration shows that he still has a big base of support within the party.

Yeah that's true. Though I still think it weakens him to be knocked back now. And ofc even in an ordinary contest he will still need the support of a much larger number of MPs to be in the final two, sure that would include those who have him as their second or third choice, but still.

[Cassius]

I mean, Boris is already de facto running and everyone knows it. If he can't get 100 then yes he'll probably withdraw to avoid humiliation, but the damage is done. His lack of support in the parliamentary party has been exposed which is a bad sign for any future comeback.

I’m not so sure. In any other circumstance (and I can’t see them setting the bar for nominations this high in any future leadership election) he’d be comfortably on the ballot. The fact that he’s been able to get almost a fifth of the parliamentary party to come out and endorse him for a comeback less than two months after his defenestration shows that he still has a big base of support within the party.

Yeah that's true. Though I still think it weakens him to be knocked back now. And ofc even in an ordinary contest he will still need the support of a much larger number of MPs to be in the final two, sure that would include those who have him as their second or third choice, but still.

I mean, if he is knocked out he can just blame it on an ‘establishment stitch-up’ (and he wouldn’t technically be wrong) and spend the next couple of years carping from the backbenches with his gang of acolytes. Given that there are a number of MPs backing Sunak who have said that they would in theory be open to backing Johnson but that ‘now is not the time’, I think that there’d be plenty of space for him to grow his support in a future contest (although, of course, given that a large number of Tory MPs, including Johnson, are likely to lose their seats at the next election the makeup of the parliamentary party is an unknown quantity).

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/Geri_E_L_Scott/status/1583832845272743936

[Statilius the Epicurean]

I mean, Boris is already de facto running and everyone knows it. If he can't get 100 then yes he'll probably withdraw to avoid humiliation, but the damage is done. His lack of support in the parliamentary party has been exposed which is a bad sign for any future comeback.

I’m not so sure. In any other circumstance (and I can’t see them setting the bar for nominations this high in any future leadership election) he’d be comfortably on the ballot. The fact that he’s been able to get almost a fifth of the parliamentary party to come out and endorse him for a comeback less than two months after his defenestration shows that he still has a big base of support within the party.

Yeah that's true. Though I still think it weakens him to be knocked back now. And ofc even in an ordinary contest he will still need the support of a much larger number of MPs to be in the final two, sure that would include those who have him as their second or third choice, but still.

I mean, if he is knocked out he can just blame it on an ‘establishment stitch-up’ (and he wouldn’t technically be wrong) and spend the next couple of years carping from the backbenches with his gang of acolytes. Given that there are a number of MPs backing Sunak who have said that they would in theory be open to backing Johnson but that ‘now is not the time’, I think that there’d be plenty of space for him to grow his support in a future contest (although, of course, given that a large number of Tory MPs, including Johnson, are likely to lose their seats at the next election the makeup of the parliamentary party is an unknown quantity).

Yeah that's something I've considered too: a half-baked conspiracy theory that Boris wants to fail to reach the threshold so he can claim he was screwed out of the job and would have won the membership etc. without being stuck as PM for 2024.

But tbh in politics I think winning begets winning and losing begets losing. That Bin Laden quote about strong horses and weak horses!

[Torrain]

Graham Stuart (Minister for Climate Change) is in for Sunak:
https://twitter.com/grahamstuart/status/1583841098115743747

Last contest he was a Shapps > Truss supporter, and served in the Johnson caretaker cabinet.

[TheTide]

Finally another Mordaunt backer - Tracey Crouch. Probably quite pointless.

[Mike88]

Finally another Mordaunt backer - Tracey Crouch. Probably quite pointless.

If by Monday, Sunak maintains his massive lead above 100 MPs, but Boris is just short of 100, would some Mordaunt backers support Boris or decide to join with the apparent winner?

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1583838954138501121?s=20&t=rHJcwo...

lmao, he's supposed to be fresh from a vacation yet he looks tired and worn down. Bodes well for a future PMship...

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1583838954138501121?s=20&t=rHJcwoe2q76bP0fanv34Jg

lmao, he's supposed to be fresh from a vacation yet he looks tired and worn down. Bodes well for a future PMship...

Was just thinking about that. Also, his face contradicts completely his thumbs up.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1583838954138501121?s=20&t=rHJcwo...

lmao, he's supposed to be fresh from a vacation yet he looks tired and worn down. Bodes well for a future PMship...

The guy looks so miserable.

[You are responsible]

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1583838954138501121?s=20&t=rHJcwo...

lmao, he's supposed to be fresh from a vacation yet he looks tired and worn down. Bodes well for a future PMship...

The guy looks so miserable.

Well, he probably was just booed by his co-passengers all the way back to the UK, so I suppose that wears you down.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/christiancalgie/status/1583838954138501121?s=20&t=rHJcwo...

lmao, he's supposed to be fresh from a vacation yet he looks tired and worn down. Bodes well for a future PMship...

The guy looks so miserable.

Well, he probably was just booed by his co-passengers all the way back to the UK, so I suppose that wears you down.

Incredible if they had the motivation to keep it up long enough to make a man like him wore down like that.
It's such a sea-change from the sunny Boris we're used to.

[You are responsible]

https://twitter.com/HarryTaylr/status/1583585551675928577

Speaking of which, this reminds of that old Simpsons scene...

Boris/Burns: "Are you all shouting "boo" or "Boo-ris"?"

Crowd: "We're shouting "boo"!"

Hans Moleman: "I was shouting "Boo-ris"!"

[Torrain]

David Davis was rumoured to be in for Sunak, and is going full-throated with an editorial in the Mail tomorrow:
https://twitter.com/DavidDavisMP/status/1583858354035691521
Can't be fun for Mordaunt, who he vocally supported last time around. Can't help but feel "no time for experiments" is a coded dig at her, as a less tested politicians.

[TheTide]

Ben Bradley for Boris.

[Torrain]

Mordaunt got 105 MPs in the final ballot last time - she's lost of 13 those supporters to Sunak and Johnson so far:

• 7 to Sunak (Nokes, Ellwood, Baron, Wallis, Gray, Duncan Baker, David Davis)
• 6 to Johnson (Fabricant, Harrison, Mortimer, Levy, Bob Stewart, Higginbotham)

[You are responsible]

Wikipedia has a supporters' list which is a little nore comprehensive than the one at BBC. It stands at:

Sunak - 119
Johnson - 60
Mordaunt - 24

This leaves 154 uncommitted MPs, a little more than a quarter of which would Boris need to be nominated.

[TheTide]

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1583866521428062208?s=20&t=yLWRL_MOIGdud...

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1583866521428062208

Ok - now that's some momentum for Sunak. The implicit attack on Johnson's character is quite something - another party rift that will hurt either way, but will be much, much worse if Johnson loses an indicative ballot, but gets through to the membership.

Also - if she's getting behind Sunak, suggests Gove (who ran her campaign) may well be too. Which is arguably a bigger story...

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/1583866521428062208

This just in from Chris Mason: "Team Boris now claiming unanimous support for a coronation from all 357 Tory MPs."