Conservative Party (UK) leadership election, 2022, Take Two

[Sic Semper Fascistis]

Frost endorsing Sunak is a big deal, no doubt about it. It will give Sunak some much needed credibility on the right of the party. Whilst personally I find Frost a windbag, he is held in very high regard by many on the right. That being said many of his biggest fans probably aren't members of the party.

This has actually got me thinking: what's Farage saying these days? He was fairly supportive of Truss over the summer.

He is not a happy bunny.

Love how the greatest mark of infamy is having fallen behind France on productivity. Never change, Brits...

[Torrain]

Now this is surprising:
https://twitter.com/DesmondSwayne/status/1583794951317774336

[TheTide]

Now this is surprising:
https://twitter.com/DesmondSwayne/status/1583794951317774336

He backed Sunak over Truss IIRC.

[Blair]

There is certainly a shift among a part of elite opinion in the party- the Telegraph not backing him out right, the Mail suggesting a deal, Lord Frost and a few senior MPs backing Rishi who might have gone for Boris.

The problem is still the threshold is too low for his matter.

[parochial boy]

Frost endorsing Sunak is a big deal, no doubt about it. It will give Sunak some much needed credibility on the right of the party. Whilst personally I find Frost a windbag, he is held in very high regard by many on the right. That being said many of his biggest fans probably aren't members of the party.

This has actually got me thinking: what's Farage saying these days? He was fairly supportive of Truss over the summer.

He is not a happy bunny.

Love how the greatest mark of infamy is having fallen behind France on productivity. Never change, Brits...

I don't think this is even a new reality though. It's been the case for a long while that the reason the UK's GDP per capita has been as high as France's has been down to the Brits working much longer hours.

Which might want to say something about the two countries' economic policies. Or something.

[TheTide]

Boris hasn't had any new public backers since Priti Patel a couple of hours ago.

[Blair]

I see a lot about Farage but the reality is that he is not the same campaign force as he once was.

[YL]

Boris hasn't had any new public backers since Priti Patel a couple of hours ago.

Yes, it feels as if things have moved in the last few hours towards it being more likely that Johnson doesn't get to 100 and hence a coronation for Sunak.  But I doubt we'll be certain of this until Monday afternoon, unless Johnson pulls out.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

unless Johnson pulls out.

My understanding is that he's not very good at doing that.

[Blair]

Sam Freedman made the very true observation that endorsements in this race aren't really an ideological test but rather a stupidity one.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1583818749647687680

[Cassius]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1583818749647687680

Whomst is Shallow Throat? Nadine Dorries?

Seems sketch.

[Torrain]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1583818749647687680

Whomst is Shallow Throat? Nadine Dorries?

Seems sketch.

Probably James Duddridge or similar. I’m not 100% convinced yet - they’re far off that publicly. A good part of me thinks that they’re attempting to project strength, and get some wavering MPs to hop on the bandwagon.

But I’m aware that it’s very much my *hope* that Johnson fails to make the ballot, so any predictions I’d make are knee-deep in cognitive bias.

For clarity, Mason followed up with a number of MPs being openly sceptical of this:
https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1583822593026822144

[brucejoel99]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1583818749647687680

Considering this just a ploy to jumpstart stalled momentum unless & until we actually see the 100 names.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

https://mobile.twitter.com/ChrisMasonBBC/status/1583818749647687680

Are these 100 backers in the room with us right now?

[You are responsible]

Boris may have 100 backers, but I have 200 backers.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1583825126231265281

https://twitter.com/nicholascecil/status/1583823616998662144

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1583824962904674304

https://twitter.com/LOS_Fisher/status/1583828077540691969

[Cassius]

To be fair, whilst I’m fairly sceptical about this, given that he only has about 50 declared backers at the moment, there are a fair few Badenoch and Braverman backers from the previous contest who haven’t made public their endorsement (Lee Anderson, Danny Kruger, John Hayes, Bernard Jenkin, Adam Afriyie etc, all of whom could be somewhat Boris friendly), so it’s not impossible I suppose. Plus, supporting Johnson is probably the only way for most of the current ministers to get another shot at serving in government, so there may be another reservoir of votes for him to tap there.

[TheTide]

This is farcical, but it kind of fits in with his image.

[TheTide]

To be fair, whilst I’m fairly sceptical about this, given that he only has about 50 declared backers at the moment, there are a fair few Badenoch and Braverman backers from the previous contest who haven’t made public their endorsement (Lee Anderson, Danny Kruger, John Hayes, Bernard Jenkin, Adam Afriyie etc, all of whom could be somewhat Boris friendly), so it’s not impossible I suppose. Plus, supporting Johnson is probably the only way for most of the current ministers to get another shot at serving in government, so there may be another reservoir of votes for him to tap there.

Jenkin tore him to shreds on the famous committee hearing during which his cabinet gathered to tell him to go and one member of the committee tweeted his no confidence in him.

[Cassius]

To be fair, whilst I’m fairly sceptical about this, given that he only has about 50 declared backers at the moment, there are a fair few Badenoch and Braverman backers from the previous contest who haven’t made public their endorsement (Lee Anderson, Danny Kruger, John Hayes, Bernard Jenkin, Adam Afriyie etc, all of whom could be somewhat Boris friendly), so it’s not impossible I suppose. Plus, supporting Johnson is probably the only way for most of the current ministers to get another shot at serving in government, so there may be another reservoir of votes for him to tap there.

Jenkin tore him to shreds on the famous committee hearing during which his cabinet gathered to tell him to go and one member of the committee tweeted his no confidence in him.

Figures I suppose, given that most of the veteran right-wingers (people like Davis and Fox) seem to be lining up for Sunak, other than those who may be suffering from the onset of cognitive degeneration like Bill Cash and Christopher Chope (this reminds me, whomst will my boy Johnny Redders be backing this time round).

[TheTide]

Lee Anderson has backed Boris, his first for about six hours. If they are not talking BS (big if) then this could be the start of a rush.

[Cassius]

Lee Anderson has backed Boris, his first for about six hours. If they are not talking BS (big if) then this could be the start of a rush.

Like a dog returns to its vomit, so the fool returns to his folly.

[Blair]

There is certainly a shift among a part of elite opinion in the party- the Telegraph not backing him out right, the Mail suggesting a deal, Lord Frost and a few senior MPs backing Rishi who might have gone for Boris.

The problem is still the threshold is too low for his matter.

On this Richard Holden, Durham MP and ex Tory SPAD from the 2019 intake is backing Boris.

[TheTide]

The phrase "if he chooses to be" in Mason's tweet is interesting. Presumably that means that he might choose not to be? Maybe his plan is to withdraw with the impression that his support is stronger than it actually is, thus compelling Sunak into giving him a cabinet position.