RI-02 - The Mellman Group (Magaziner internal)- Fung +3

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/JoelWeingart_/status/1580201792029106177?t=g_NFjcIfSneL4gESk...

[Calthrina950]

Fung is clearly in the driver's seat, particularly since he's leading in his opponent's internals. I firmly believe that this seat is going to flip at this point.

[HidingCommentary]

54% of undecideds are democrats according to this poll, so i'm wary of labeling this anything other than toss-up.

[wbrocks67]

I'm thoroughly confused as to why 54% of Democrats are undecided here?

Even with this being an internal, Fung is once again close to his ceiling (only 13% undecided Rs), but Dems really need to work on consolidating the base here.

[kwabbit]

I'm thoroughly confused as to why 54% of Democrats are undecided here?

Even with this being an internal, Fung is once again close to his ceiling (only 13% undecided Rs), but Dems really need to work on consolidating the base here.

54% of undecideds are Democrats, not 54% of Democrats are undecided. There are so many undecided Democrats because Fung is obviously appealing enough to them where they won’t just jump for Magaziner. Magaziner I believe is also carpetbagging (5 miles since it’s RI) to this district. Been a very consistent trend in all these polls.

[NYDem]

I’m sold, Tilt R

[BenjiG98]

It's hilarious to me that there's a fair chance the only Republican representing New England could be from Rhode Island of all places. Good for Fung.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's hilarious to me that there's a fair chance the only Republican representing New England could be from Rhode Island of all places. Good for Fung.

Yeah George Logan and Karoline Leavitt have a shot but I think they come up short

[Person Man]

What does Fung do that Democrats like? It’s not like he’s moderate, right? 
Later: actually he is moderate and actually takes a decent view on abortion and other issues.

[Skill and Chance]

Welp, this one is likely over.

[brucejoel99]

Welp, this one is likely over.

With Fung at only 43%, an overall majority of undecideds being Dems, & party control maybe hinging on this race, no way.

[GALeftist]

I’m sold, Tilt R

I'm not, Lean D

[MT Treasurer]

Getting ME-02 2014 vibes from this one. Yes, I know this district is more urban and has a more Democratic "PVI" than ME-02 had in 2014, but back then, many Democratic observers were in similar denial when several surveys showed Poliquin competitive against/leading Emily Cain.

I’ve always had this as a promising pick-up opportunity for the GOP even before polling showed Fung consistently ahead.

[Real Texan Politics]

Lean R

[2016]

Getting ME-02 2014 vibes from this one. Yes, I know this district is more urban and has a more Democratic "PVI" than ME-02 had in 2014, but back then, many Democratic observers were in similar denial when several surveys showed Poliquin competitive against/leading Emily Cain.

I’ve always had this as a promising pick-up opportunity for the GOP even before polling showed Fung consistently ahead.

Even a D-Internal Poll can't give the Democrat a lead in this District. The House is GONE for Democrats.

[GALeftist]

I was slightly trolling (this flipping would be less surprising than OR-06 for example) but c'mon, folks, undecideds at 18% and you're ready to say Fung is favored? Tilt D imo.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

if Fung wins I expect he either is a 2-year rental for the seat or becomes a consistent moderate thorn in McCarthy's side to the point he might be forced to be independent

[Woody]

Absolutely pathetic.. Biden +14

[Skill and Chance]

Welp, this one is likely over.

With Fung at only 43%, an overall majority of undecideds being Dems, & party control maybe hinging on this race, no way.

This seat is easily in the high 220's for R's even if there is a disproportionate Northern working class swing, and it's in the 240's if there's a uniform swing.  Honestly, this and OR-06 is a sign the House is gone for Dems.  Where are they going to make this up? 

[brucejoel99]

Welp, this one is likely over.

With Fung at only 43%, an overall majority of undecideds being Dems, & party control maybe hinging on this race, no way.

This seat is easily in the high 220's for R's even if there is a disproportionate Northern working class swing, and it's in the 240's if there's a uniform swing.  Honestly, this and OR-06 is a sign the House is gone for Dems.  Where are they going to make this up?  

Neither seat has yet to go R; contrast them with inc. D seats NY-19 & AK-AL.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It's a democratic internal showing us behind in this district and you guys still think it's Lean D? Lol

[NerdyBohemian]

I know it’s not exactly the same, but ten years ago, every poll for RI’s first district showed Cicilline losing and he ended up winning by double digits. I think we may see something similar here. Maybe. The rural areas of Rhode Island which are mostly found in the 2nd district have seen support for Democrats collapses like most of the country.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

What does Fung do that Democrats like? It’s not like he’s moderate, right? 
Later: actually he is moderate and actually takes a decent view on abortion and other issues.

New England Democrats have brain worms. It's the same case with Susan Collins. They like to vote for "moderate" Republicans because it makes them feel good.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

What does Fung do that Democrats like? It’s not like he’s moderate, right? 
Later: actually he is moderate and actually takes a decent view on abortion and other issues.

New England Democrats have brain worms. It's the same case with Susan Collins. They like to vote for "moderate" Republicans because it makes them feel good.

You mock them, but this benefits us in places too (think ME 2)

[NerdyBohemian]

I know it’s not exactly the same, but ten years ago, every poll for RI’s first district showed Cicilline losing and he ended up winning by double digits. I think we may see something similar here. Maybe. The rural areas of Rhode Island which are mostly found in the 2nd district have seen support for Democrats collapses like most of the country.

Called it.