Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[Joseph Cao]

P154 Mersing: Another ocean of anonymous federally owned land (with an arm west to the Endau-Rompin national park) is saved by a stretch of about half of Johor's east coast, following the highway down from Endau at the Pahang border, and its big fishing and tourism orientation. It's like Terengganu but with more of that indefinable eastern Johor je ne sais quoi.
Five-term incumbent Abdul Latiff Ahmad seems to think so – his jump from UMNO to PPBM, now PAS's coalition partner, in 2019 certainly bears that out. But he's stepping aside for his political secretary, Muhammad Islahuddin Abas, who must defend this heavy UMNO seat against UMNO's ex-assemblyman and ex-state exco Abdul Latiff Bandi Nor Sebandi and DAP ex-councilor Fatin Zulaikha Zaidi and an independent and PEJUANG women's youth recruitment head Nurfatimah Ibrahim, who mercifully does not seem to be an ex-anything. Expect this to be an ex-PPBM seat come Saturday. BN gain from PN

P155 Tenggara: Another finger of southeastern Johor running up to Mount Belumut, this seat of palm oil and parachuted industrial work is anchored by a town of the same name built less than two generations ago. Tells you plenty about how it works politically.
UMNO's Adham Baba got this seat when Hishamuddin decided that even it had too many people for his liking. Malaysia found out exactly how much of a VORP he was to great effect, and a tragically stuttering COVID response, in the last two years. It all got a bit too embarrassing and no doubt that performance was as strong a factor in his removal as his closeness to Ismail Sabri, but UMNO divisional youth chief Manndzri Nasib should be a more than adequate replacement electorally if that is even needed against PKR, PAS, and PUTRA opposition. BN hold

P156 Kota Tinggi: The link between seats and names and histories is awfully fragile. Most of Kota Tinggi town actually lies in Tenggara. The shifting fortunes of the Johor kingdom carried them back and forth over this area. What distinguishes this seat from its neighbor is primarily the stretch of coast that allows it to bring a bit more in economically than FELDA can do.
And so it goes with the candidates; a former Tenggara MP herself, current national unity minister Halimah Mohamed Sadique of UMNO has long been close to both Muhyiddin and Ismail Sabri and like Adham Baba in both regards has been dropped. Halimah is notably not campaigning for former chief minister Khaled Nordin, but neither is she leaving the fold, and in a uber-safe seat even that might not matter – she nearly cracked 70 percent here in 2018; state AMANAH mobilization chief Onn Jaafar (no, not that one) and Mohamad Ridhwan Rasman, son of the PPBM division's chairman, have no hope. BN hold

P157 Pengerang: Facing Singapore harbor, the massive Pengerang Integrated Petroleum Complex crouches on the southeastern tip of Johor and looks out over all the shipping lanes that its fuel helps to keep running. This has always been a good strategic position and its current prominence in an otherwise uniformly beach-and-farm seat is a reflection of the advantage this industry offers to UMNO electorally.
The same might be said for its incumbent, four-termer Azalina Othman Said, who helps to burnish UMNO's moderate credentials through her considerable legal chops, parliamentary ethic, and bipartisan work on things like women's issues. It is always good when UMNO's longstanding songkok policy comes up against an exception and hard work is hard work, though her constituents would probably reelect her regardless of what she did. Don't expect AMANAH former JB-area assemblyman Che Zakaria Mohd Salleh or PPBM's divisional committeeman Fairulnizar Rahmat to make a dent. BN hold

P158 Tebrau: Wrapping around the Johor Bahru area as far as the international airport, this area saw huge growth in the 1970s and 1980s as the city expanded outward (killing the river in the process) and has long since been swallowed up by the outer wave of services and shopping centers and other related commercial enterprise. The seat was created around the same time.
This is a classic orbital seat and has voted that way, with Steven Choong flipping it on a PKR ticket in 2018 before leaving the party in 2021 to set up the frog registry office of PBM. This has not endeared him to voters and he "abruptly" decided not to stand again; the seat will instead see a three-way between PKR state deputy chairman Jimmy Puah and PPBM's former JB councilor Isa Basir, who used to serve as colleagues on the state PH legal team, and MCA's Nicole Wong who was last seen putting up embarrassingly low numbers against Teresa Kok up north. Despite Puah's assertions to the contrary this seat is one where PKR has a bit of cushion, which they might need if things get dicey. PH gain from PBM

P159 Pasir Gudang: The World Kite Festival still helps to fly this seat's banner high above the heavy industry and commerce that grew out of surrounding areas to service the Johor port. Bandar Seri Alam and its collection of local universities mark the educational trend of this seat extending into Johor Bahru neighborhoods as far west as the mouth of the Tebrau River and Federal Route 3 running through the city.
It is only barely majority-Malay now and PKR's Hassan Abdul Karim improved on that vote share as he knocked out Khaled Nordin and other candidates. UMNO divisional youth leader Noor Azleen Ambros, PPBM former city councilor Mohamad Farid Abdul Razak, and IMAN's Mohammad Raffi Beran, who are all friends with each other; it's still that kind of a place. In all likelihood it will also still be the kind of place where PKR comes out on top in multi-cornered fights. PH hold

P160 Johor Bahru: It has to be understood just how crucial proximity to Singapore was in developing this former fishing village when the split between the rival Johor Sultanates singled out this place as a potential administrative and trading center – a position it still holds today as the premier city in just about every respect of southern Peninsular Malaysia. Approximately the entire city center north of Federal Route 1 running right up to the Johor Causeway, over which many Johoreans and Singaporeans cross for work every day, makes it into this seat.
Symbolically, the birthplace of UMNO being located at the Istana Besar just across the highway made this a huge scalp when PKR's Akmal Nasrullah Mohd Nasir took over 60 percent to swing the seat in 2018. Locally renowned architect Johan Arifin Mohd Ropi is trying to reclaim it for UMNO; PPBM fellow newcomer Mohd Mohtah Yacob and PEJUANG perennial Mohd Akhiri Mahmood are in the mix as well, if not entirely in the hunt; this is the kind of seat where PH's recovery from March should be stronger. PH hold

P161 Pulai: The carefully cultivated landscape of suburbs like Perling and Bukit Indah at the seat's western end and the property jitters and royal decadence at its eastern tip are in an uneasy balance with the very real problems of crime and lack of upward mobility in the urban neighborhoods which Keluang Man calls home lying between. Pulai is not a seat that makes much internal sense, jumping the gravely labyrinthine Skudai estuary and its Johor laksa restaurants as it does, but it encapsulates many of the things Johor Bahru must fix.
AMANAH deputy president Salahuddin Ayub got an even stronger swing to him in 2018 than the other Johor Bahru seats to the east and is sitting pretty thanks to its high Chinese vote; even the return of UMNO's Nur Jazlan to try and reclaim the seat doesn't seem to be changing that. Tebrau GERAKAN division chief Loh Kah Yong is an eleventh-hour substitution for his coalition and isn't terribly likely to deter Salahuddin from going back to Parliament. PH hold

P162 Iskandar Puteri: Johor Bahru urban areas spill across the Skudai river into an area earmarked as the center of state development, by everyone from the administrative capital of Iskandar Puteri further south to the hundreds of developers pushing those buildings up. The Iskandar Development Region has built the new port and the Tuas Link with Singapore and brought in the University of Southampton and several other things; with more tourist traps set to join Legoland Malaysia and the existing malls that growth could continue unchecked for a while. The IDR was expanded again in 2019.
All that roiling change is a contrast with DAP supremo Lim Kit Siang who flipped this seat's predecessor in 2013 and got his margin to nearly 70 percent in 2018. After a fifty-year parliamentary career he is finally retiring and DAP strategist, state chairman, state opposition leader etc. Liew Chin Tong has wrested the seat (in Dr. Boo's telling; sour grapes more than likely) and gets his ticket to Parliament punched over MCA divisional chairman Jason Teoh PPBM's Tan Nam Cha. PH hold

P163 Kulai: The Hakka hub of Kulai centers an area stretching up from the airport to points further north on the highways, the site of the first FELDA palm oil plantation and earning a spot similarly at the leading edge of development with its recent inclusion in the IDR. Rubber and vegetables round out the economic output of a seat at the very outer belt of the Johor Bahru urban area.
You can imagine it is a nice seat for DAP two-term incumbent Teo Nie Ching, and that is not about to change with MCA state bigwig Chua Jian Boon and GERAKAN somebody Tan Chin Hock contesting against her. PH hold

P164 Pontian: From Batu Pahat the road extends parallel to the coast through a series of towns each anchoring a river and surrounded by the eternal palm oil plantations; it gets closest to the Straits at Pontian town itself which adds fishing to the economic repertoire in this seat.
Also from Batu Pahat a DAP first-timer, Shazwan Zdainal – Malay candidate! shock! horror! – has emerged against three-term incumbent and UMNO sec-gen Ahmad Maslan: PPBM Senate member Isa Abdul Hamid and GB’s Jamaludin Mohamad will likewise express hope for cutting Ahmad Maslan's anemic 2018 margin closer. But despite the unending buffoonery that he spews out nationally that does not seem likely to happen any time soon. BN hold

P165 Tanjung Piai: The land narrows as we run down from the Malaysian pineapple capital of Pekan Nanas through various small towns and palm oil territory and the developing port and open-air seafood hub of Kukup, until we dive into the mangroves of Tanjung Piai National Park: the southernmost point of Johor, of Malaysia, and of the Eurasian continent.
Two years ago today PH was reeling from its first federal by-election loss to returning MCA MP Wee Jeck Seng in this seat. Wee has remained aggressively local and made a real electoral swamp for MUDA cofounder Lim Wei Jiet and PPBM supreme council member and businesswoman Najwah Halimah Ab Alim to navigate; time is running out for them to do so. BN hold

Running tally: BN 77 (+37), PH 70 (-8), PN 18 (-21), GTA 1 (-3), WARISAN 0 (-1), PBM 0 (-4)

[Joseph Cao]

Since we've come to the end of the Peninsular seats – this is just to say there will be a break in scheduling tomorrow, partly to give me a bit more time to read up on Borneo in general and partly because there are just too many [inks] constituencies there. It does take time to travel out to East Malaysia after all.  I plan to update on Wednesday and Thursday nights which should bring us into the final 24 hours of the campaign period.

As the Malaysia Airlines (RIP) tagline goes, strap in for your flight as you enjoy our Malaysian hospitality yada yada.

[Joseph Cao]

Also, regarding the Merdeka seat-level polling, lmao.

Malaysian polling is so badly broken sometimes it's hilarious. Bit sad, but hilarious.

[jaichind]

Since we've come to the end of the Peninsular seats – this is just to say there will be a break in scheduling tomorrow, partly to give me a bit more time to read up on Borneo in general and partly because there are just too many [inks] constituencies there. It does take time to travel out to East Malaysia after all.  I plan to update on Wednesday and Thursday nights which should bring us into the final 24 hours of the campaign period.

As the Malaysia Airlines (RIP) tagline goes, strap in for your flight as you enjoy our Malaysian hospitality yada yada.

My guess for your projection for BN in Peninsular Malaysia was 75.  If you take out Labuan your projection came out to 76 for BN.  I was pretty close.  My model had exactly the same results as you did for Johor.

[jaichind]

For Sabah my wild guess is

BN             8
PN             6
PH             4
WARISAN   6
 
I thought was going to be a BN-PN landslide but looking at candidate quality gaps produced a more mixed picture.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

Also, regarding the Merdeka seat-level polling, lmao.

Malaysian polling is so badly broken sometimes it's hilarious. Bit sad, but hilarious.

At least you guys have polling.

[jaichind]

https://www.nst.com.my/news/politics/2022/11/850981/ge15-ewon-claims-warisan-dividing-people-party

"GE15: Ewon claims Warisan dividing people, party"

PH-WARISAN relationship gets worse and worse. There is talk that WARISAN might join a BN-PN government after the elections.  I doubt it.  WARISAN's main enemy is BN-PH in Sabah so the game theory says they will likely align with PH all things said and done.  Same thing for GPS. Their main enemy is PH so they will always default to supporting a BN or BN-PN government.

[jaichind]

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ge15...tes-says-yougov

"GE15 unlikely to produce a clear winner, PH to get most votes, says YouGov"

Yougov had it at PH 35 PN 20 BN 17 in tuns of vote share

[Novelty]

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2022/11/15/selangor-think-tank-suggests-amirudin-will-beat-azmin-in-gombak-by-over-45000-votes/39825

Selangor think tank suggests Amirudin will beat Azmin in Gombak by over 45,000 votes

[jaichind]

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2022/11/15/selangor-think-tank-suggests-amirudin-will-beat-azmin-in-gombak-by-over-45000-votes/39825

Selangor think tank suggests Amirudin will beat Azmin in Gombak by over 45,000 votes

Yeah, but IDE is linked to the PKR-controlled Selangor government so clearly, they are going to have a pro-PKR bias.

[jaichind]

Within PN there seem to be different voices on cooperation with BN post-election.  PAS seems to want to align with BN after the election while parts of PPBM seem to be opposed to a post-election arrangement with BN.  PAS's position seems weird.  PAS is very well organized and does not need to be part of the government.  A UMNO out of government will start to see its organization fall apart with PAS being the long-term winner.  From a long-term game theory point of view, PAS's interests should be aligned with keeping UMNO out of power since that will eventually produce a situation where PAS becomes the dominant Malay party and in turn the dominant party in all of  Peninsular Malaysia.

[Novelty]

Within PN there seem to be different voices on cooperation with BN post-election.  PAS seems to want to align with BN after the election while parts of PPBM seem to be opposed to a post-election arrangement with BN.  PAS's position seems weird.  PAS is very well organized and does not need to be part of the government.  A UMNO out of government will start to see its organization fall apart with PAS being the long-term winner.  From a long-term game theory point of view, PAS's interests should be aligned with keeping UMNO out of power since that will eventually produce a situation where PAS becomes the dominant Malay party and in turn the dominant party in all of  Peninsular Malaysia.

https://www.malaymail.com/news/malaysia/2022/11/15/hadi-says-pas-willing-to-turn-opposition-than-form-a-coalition-govt-with-bn/39827

Hadi says PAS willing to turn opposition than form a coalition govt with BN

[jaichind]

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/asia/malaysia-election-2022-ge15-terengganu-pas-bn-3070906

"Strong support for PAS in swing state Terengganu, but race against BN could be too close to call"

ILHAM Center says that Terengganu is neck-to-neck between PN and BN

[jaichind]

Malaysia Declares Public Holiday on Friday, Saturday for Polling

This move is confusing.   UMNO has the incentive to lower turnout so I am not sure UMNO PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob would do this.  My guess would be that Ismail Sabri Yaakob wants to ensure a hung parliament as opposed to a BN win so he can stay PM.  Because if BN-GPS wins an outright majority  then  UMNO Prez Ahmad Zahid Hamidi will most likely kick out Ismail Sabri Yaakob and make himself PM.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Came across this headline online:
"MALAYSIA / 11 m ago
Bentong locals welcome development in district — if only promises made during GE15 campaigning are kept"
I LOLed a bit...

[Logical]

The PKR incumbent for P017 Padang Serai (Kedah) has sadly died. There will be no election there and the seat will remain vacant pending a byelection.

[jaichind]

https://www.theedgemarkets.com/article/ge15...tes-says-yougov

"GE15 unlikely to produce a clear winner, PH to get most votes, says YouGov"

Yougov had it at PH 35 PN 20 BN 17 in tuns of vote share

The same poll has PM candidate favorablities

PPBM leader Muhyiddin Yassin and PKR leader Anwar seem to be ahead of  UMNO PM Ismail Sabri Yaakob  and PAS leader Abdul Hadi Awang

[xelas81]

Why didn't PH address malapportionment when they won the last election?
If I was in their shoes that would be first thing that I would have done.

[Joseph Cao]

Why didn't PH address malapportionment when they won the last election?
If I was in their shoes that would be first thing that I would have done.

The Election Commission can only do that once every eight years, and we all know the story of how Najib panicked in 2018 and redrew everything in the Peninsular. Now they could have mooted something addressing the specific issue of malapportionment, but PH is always worried about little things like the image of tinkering with the electoral system immediately after gaining power.

As a matter of fact however they did act on one redelineation – the Sabah state lines originally mooted in Parliament in 2015 that went through in 2019 with no changes. It is not especially significant federally aside from tinkering with a few names.

[Joseph Cao]

Sabah

P167 Kudat: As we head into Sabah at another tip, the northernmost in the country, the stark disparity between Peninsular and Borneo should become obvious. The Kudat and Bengkoka peninsulas which the seat covers are swampy, forested, home to at least thirty-seven species of mosquito, desperately poor, and lack basic infrastructure all around which affects students like Veveonah Mosibin who infamously had to climb a tree to secure internet access for her exams.
Four-term incumbent Abd Rahim Bakri also infamously accused her repeatedly of lying, just to give you some idea of the man. Mercifully he will not be returning to Parliament; defending for PPBM Sabah in his place is assemblyman Ruddy Awah. who will face PKR educational entrepeneur Thonny Chee, WARISAN's Rashid Harun, PEJUANG's Nur Alya Humaira Usun Abdullah, and an independent, former Sabah Football Club CEO Verdon Bahanda. This seems fairly strong for BN's alliance with PPBM in the state and should hold that way with Rahim out of the picture. GRS hold

P168 Kota Marudu: The Marudu Bay, encircled by the above two peninsulas, has been a feature of the coastline for time immemorial; for this reason, and its convenience as a landing point, the stability of the terrain has attracted everyone from Chinese traders to missionaries to Filipino pirates. It still draews its work from the plantations that have employed fathers and fathers' fathers, though many of the children are heading out of the bay to find work.
PBS's Maximus Johnnity Ongkili brings a similar stability to its representation, having served for six terms. His highest-profile challenge now comes from a local antithesis to stability, party-hopper Wetrom Bahanda of KDM (as of this writing) whose label still dogs him, with WARISAN former ambassador to Jordan Jilid Kuminding and MUDA vice-president Sharizal Denci and the PEJUANG and independent contestants fading into the background in comparison; but their role will still be vital in staving off the protest vote against Maximus, who has consolidated most institutional opposition against him and probably extends the parliamentary stability of this seat to number seven. GRS hold

P169 Kota Belud: Like Kota Marudu, this hilly area stretching down to the western Sabah coast is part of Sabah's primary rice bowl and has been hit with all the population bleed that typifies such districts. Sabah's dependence on rice imports is still a highly sore point for the state. It seems many in power are trumpeting plans to address that, which may or may not come to fruition or even exist, but it demonstrates the parochialism that moves votes here.
WARISAN incumbent Isnaraissah Munirah Majilis got this on her second try thanks to the WARISAN label and wave amidst backlash to UMNO substituting the popular two-termer Abdul Rahman Dahlan away for a comparative unknown. Even so her margin is not high and Abdul Rahman has returned smelling blood in the water; PKR teacher Madeli Modily Bin Bangali will try to keep it close and probably fail. Expect UMNO to learn from its mistakes. GRS gain from WARISAN

P170 Tuaran: As the Tuaran River hurries along to its emptying into the South China Sea it passes through a seat best characterized by transience, from the rest-stop industry of Tuaran itself to the white-water rafts and resorts of Kiulu to the very name of Tamparuli tself, a corruption of "temporary." The Kadazan and Dusun are particularly heavy in this seat and have defied that transience with millennia of culture under their belt.
UPKO president Wilfred Madius Tangau is the rare party-hopper that stuck with PH when he led his party (of which he was the only survivor in 2018) into the coalition and never left. He now defends his seat against PBS information chief Joniston Bangkuai, WARISAN deputy Jo-Anna Sue Henley Rampas, PEJUANG's Muminin Norbinsha, and two independents. This is technically a rematch; Bangkuai thumped Madius on his own home turf in the 2020 state elections. Madius' grip may have been primarily UMNO votes and that could evaporate quickly on election day. GRS gain from PH

P171 Sepanggar: Kota Kinabalu's expansion has infused new life into Sepanggar covering the areas to its north. The most visible indicator is the new port built to relieve pressure on KK's, with further expansion set for the near future alongside the attendant industrial parks, but the longstanding naval base (set to receive more attention as the most proximate to PRC meddling in the region) and cluster of universities have also helped give this an economic base far beyond most others in Sabah.
Azis Jamman, the WARISAN information chief, flipped this strongly in 2018 and retains a decent grip even as the party's prospects have crumbled in recent years. UMNO assemblyman Yakubah Khan is standing to break that, and could very well succeed, but with PKR secretary Mustapha Sakmud getting into some hot water for a No Water billboard and the other PEJUANG and KDM nonentities on the ballot it seems likely that the votes will split once again and favor a loudly Sabahan-nationalist incumbent. WARISAN hold

P172 Kota Kinabalu: From its fishing village roots, the history of Sabah's largest city never made its current status as the region's industrial, economic, and cultural hub a done deal until post-WWII when the state capital shifted here (other towns were too war-torn to be suitable) and post-1963 with the declaration of Sabahan and Malaysian independence. Merdeka Square, where that took place, lies near the core of this seat covering KK city center – basically everything within the highway that heads out toward the rest of Sabah.
DAP has uniformly dominated this seat in recent elections but the faces have varied; Chan Foong Hin is the first to stand for reelection. Expect him to easily take out the WARISAN nominee, ex-DAP aide Amanda Yeo, High Court advocate Yee Tsai Yew of PBS, KDM's tourism figure Winston Liaw, and the independent. PH hold

P173 Putatan: There is more than the usual share of untimely expiration to be found in Kota Kinabalu's history; the WWII rebels of nearly every ethnic group led by doctor Albert Kwok came to its end with Kwok's execution in Petagas, and nearly the entire crop of promising young party BERJAYA including the state's inaugural chief minister Tun Fuad Stephens was killed in a 1976 plane crash just off the Kota Kinabalu coast. (Our old friend Tengku Razaleigh was on the plane before it took off but got called away seemingly at random. Mysterious ways, etc.) Both sites lie within a pencil-thin, carefully drawn seat that takes in most of the KK coast and satellites to the south.
PKR's Awang Husaini Sahari, now party vice-president, pushed out a massive swing in 2018 with WARISAN's help. They no longer have WARISAN's help, with that party fielding a minnow in newcomer Ahmad Mohd Said, or PEJUANG's in driving school operator Patrick Poyne Tudus. They also have a headache to deal with in UMNO assemblyman Shahelmey Yahya who won a notionally WARISAN seat by a landslide in 2020; given that electoral record and the likelihood of UMNO prevailing winds in Sabah it is likely that PKR's hold comes to an untimely end here. GRS gain from PH

P174 Penampang: The southeastern KK suburb of Penampang wants to pull itself forward as the rest of the urban area marches on, with such sights as the Mega Long Mall, Sabah's longest shopping center, showing its rapid shift away from agriculture to industry and services – but that comes at the expense of good agricultural land in a heavily Kadazan-Dusun seat being illegally sold for these purposes.
That has worked to the advantage of WARISAN incumbent Darrell Leiking who won it under the PKR banner in 2013 and saw his margins blow out under WARISAN colors. But the question is whether this is a Leiking seat or an opposition seat and UPKO vice-president Ewon Benedick and STAR's former north-suburbs assemblyman Kenny Chua (late of PKR) along with an independent are the leading edge to test that question. In an urban seat this really is anyone's guess, but I am tipping the incumbent to hang on. WARISAN hold

P175 Papar: To the south the paddy fields still reign supreme as the Crocker Range finally marches further away from the seashore, and along with the mangrove swamps constitute a seat stretching the short bur heavy length of the Papar River from source to mouth. But illegality is never far from economic activity in this part of the world and sand-mining of the river bank remains a persistent problem.
WARISAN's Ahmad Hassan holds one of his party's most marginal seats, having won this from UMNO by under a percentage point in 2018. PPBM Sabah information deputy Armizan Mohd Ali is well-placed to regain the seat from its anonymous incumbent, but with first-timers DAP treasurer Henry Shim, PEJUANG state chairman Nicholas Sylvester, and two independents in ripe position to play spoiler, this could still probably swing in either direction. GRS gain from WARISAN

P176 Kimanis: The row of condemned buildings in Kimanis is a common sight to many Malaysians but it's especially devastating to process when that one row constitutes nearly the entire town; this seat spreading around the bay from Papar to Beaufort's outskirts, the least populated in Sabah, has gathered a rundown quality that neither the Jack Nicklaus-designed golf and country club nor the Petronas-owned Sabah Oil and Gas Terminal can entirely dispel.
You will not be surprised to learn that UMNO has held on to this consistently, and after the party got run close in 2018 Mohamad Alamin pulled out a nine-point win in a by-election that leaves him sitting pretty against WARISAN assemblyman Daud Yusof, UPKO's deputy information chief Rowindy Lawrence, former Keningau distrct officer Amat Mohd Yusof of KDM, and Yusup Osman of PEJUANG. It is what it is. GRS hold

P177 Beaufort: You can head into Beaufort by car, walk around on foot, white-water raft for a bit, and head out by train. For all that, the vaccuum of development has largely passed the seat by and it continues to chug along with its famous smoked and heavily drenched Beaufort noodles mostly unheeding of the outside world.
Jury's out on whether a similar unheeding of political realities doomed PPBM Sabah incumbent and state women's chief Azizah Mohd Dun, who jumped over from UMNO after 2018 but has been sidelined by the GRS pact. UMNO's divisional deputy Siti Aminah Aching has been the beneficiary of the pact and has excellent chances against Sabah immigration director Masri Adul of WARISAN, PKR's KK-area school administrator Dikin Musah, KDM vice-president Johair Matlani and two independents. GRS hold

P178 Sipitang: Anyone running down the highway toward the Sarawak border is confronted quite firmly with the border crossing, the continuing artefact of certain constitutional guarantees, but all around them on the journey southward there is evidence that the border is exactly that: artefactual. The timber that powers much of the seat's industry, the biodiversity celebrated at Long Pasia ecotourism hotspot, the religiosity of the natives all continue without a hitch.
PPBM Sabah's Yamani Hafez Musa, the son of Musa Aman, controversially did not show up to Parliament until nearly eight months after the election, and he has much more time in which to not show up to Parliament ahead of him. The seat is poised to return to UMNO with that party's divisional youth chief Matbali Musah poised to steamroll AMANAH state party chair Lahirul Lathigul and WARISAN solicitor Adnan Puteh. GRS hold

[Joseph Cao]

P179 Ranau: Mount Kinabalu is a soaring landmark, a revered place with the mythology to match (excuse me while I go cry. Back now), a matter of heavy tribal and Sabahan and national pride, and consequently the UNESCO-protected park brings in heavy footfall and spending. How much of this has passed Ranau by is up for debate; as with many other areas in Sabah basic necessities in the farming communities within this sprawling mountainous seat remain a power outage or flood away from permanent shutdown.
PPBM Sabah's Jonathan Yasin defected from PKR in 2020 and has collected some small deputy portfolios for his trouble; he now faces a rematch with fellow pact member Ewon Ebin of PBRS who apparently is trying to leverage his previous service to the seat with an unauthorized race. PKR divisional information chief Jahalan Taufik Sham sees a chance to sneak up the middle; retired civil servant Markos Siton and PEJUANG farmer and innovator Azizul Julirin have compelling stories but little electoral chances. I am going really out on a limb here, one of the many limbs in an area of rich arboreal biodiversity, but with the titanic vote split I think PKR has a golden opportunity here. PH gain from GRS

P180 Keningau: The Crocker Range, dividing western and eastern Sabah both physically and socioculturally, also presents navigational challenges into and out of the Keningau and Tambunan areas adjacent to the Crocker Range National Park. For this reason there isn't a huge consolidation around one industry with lumber, paddy fields, rubber, vegetables, fish, and various service industries. Very small-town feel, very quiet, and unfailingly friendly people.
Keningau's Oath Stone with its commemoration of the federal government's pledges to Sabah is also located here, and STAR incumbent and party leader Jeffrey Kitiangan has used these to justify his frequent and long-running party hopping; the King of Frogs has joined nearly every party known to Sabahans and a few that aren't. He is now at least nominally in the BN corner but UMNO famously hates his guts; we will see how much that potential dropoff affects his race against DAP freelance journalist Grelydia Gillod, ex-assemblyman Rasinin Kautis of WARISAN and the KDM fellow. GRS hold

P181 Tenom: This seat reaches from the white-water Padas River valley, whose plantations made Tenom the coffe capital of Sabah, down into the impenetrable jungle by the Sarawak border. Both halves of the seat are heavily Murut – in fact the tribe consider this seat their capital of sorts, holding various important happenings and festivities here.
It's shaping up to be another tale of two halves as DAP incumbent Noorita Sual only won with hard work by then-WARISAN honcho Peter Anthony. Peter is now an assemblyman and has formed his own party, KDM, which he planned to use to contest against Noorita after the broad party falling-out, but he failed to get his papers in order and as so often happens with these Sabah warlords a small riot was triggered on nomination day in response. Unexpectedly jumping in for KDM is Riduan Rubin, former PPBM Sabah youth chief and son of the other assemblyman and longtime warlord Rubin Balang. UMNO apparatus backing Rubin Balang's predecessor Jamawi Ja’afar is crying foul at the Rubins' supposed reneging of the BN-PPBM arrangement but there's nothing they can do about it; in any case Jamawi still has the higher floor and the superior apparatus and the wind at his back, against a now-split opposition that barely won last time. WARISAN's Ukim Buandi and the 23-year-old independent Peggy Chaw (youngest in the country) won't change that. GRS gain from PH

P182 Pensiangan: The Murut capital may be in Tenom, but this border seat has by far the highest concentration of that particular tribe (and the Lun Bawang) by virtue of its rurality. The Japanese made a special, seemingly disproportionate effort to penetrate this area and even today the trunk road through this triangular seat on the Sarawak border misses much of the population.
PBRS leader Arthur Joseph Kurup bears his father's name and seat and flirtations with the opposition, joining the general exodus of Sabah parties from Barisan after 2018 only to return to the fold via the 2020 backdoor. PKR Keningau branch head Datuk Sangkar Rasam is being fielded, as are WARISAN's Siti Noorhasmahwatty Osman and PEJUANG's Jamani Derimin, while ex-Sabah football player Jekerison Kilan will play for KDM. Kurup however has an excellent path down the field that he should take with little trouble. GRS hold

P183 Beluran: Malaysia's grand antipathy toward the concept of taxation runs long and deep, as does Sabah's love of autonomy, but probably their purest form was a the turn-of-the-century rebellion in Sabah that cut against British administration as a whole. Mat Salleh's success and the effort the British put into subduing him derives from his popularity along the Sugut River whose drainage area covers most of this rural north-central seat.
The rebellion extends into politics as five-term incumbent Ronald Kiandee was one of the few UMNO men to survive 2018 before bolting for PPBM, of which he is now vice-president. Bung Mokhtar from his neighboring seat has made it a personal mission to take him down and Kiandee is retorting in kind, contesting with the federal party's blessing in a seat that was assigned to UMNO's former Sandakan municipal councilor Benedict Asmat. Sandakan-area lawyer Rowiena Rashid of WARISAN, UPKO youth head Felix Joseph Saang, and state water department official Hausing Sudin of PEJUANG are fading into the backdrop here. But local PN is respecting the state pact and leaving Kiandee high and dry, so expect the incumbent to join them on the 19th. GRS hold

P184 Libaran: There's many places in Sabah that bear the scars of the Japanese occupation, too many to count or recount in detail. But the Sandakan death marches are perhaps the most internationally notorious because of how thorough the murders of the Australian POWs involved were, with none surviving the final march in August 1945 just before the Japanese surrender: all were too weak to march far and died within the confines of a seat that stretches barely to the mouth of the Ulu Sapi river up the coast.
Zukaria Edris, having nearly lost a legacy UMNO seat to WARISAN in 2018, proceeded to lose it for UMNO immediately when he defected to PPBM Sabah. He is not contesting again. As per the BN-PN alliance this has been ceded back to UMNO with assemblyman Suhaini Nasir coasting to Parliament; UPKO division chief Peter Jr. Naintin, WARISAN's Sh Bokhrata Sh Hassan, and the other PEJUANG, PPRM and independent perennials on the ballot are not threats to him. GRS hold

P185 Batu Sapi: A large and poorly connected seat curving halfway around Sandakan Bay through the local forest reserve, a good amount of the Sandakan urban area including its port (which sprouted the community giving its name to the seat) actually falls into this seat and serves as its main economic driver.
Currently still vacant after WARISAN's Liew Vui Keong died in 2020 and the state emergency postponed it indefinitely, the party has put up assemblyman Alias Sani to defend the seat. The PPBM Sabah candidate is Khairul Firdaus Akbar Khan, son of a former Libaran MP. State DAP organizing secretary Liau Fui Fui, PUTRA's Boni Yusuf Abdullah and an independent round out a contest for a seat where WARISAN continues to perform creditably; they should have no trouble retaining it. WARISAN hold

P186 Sandakan: The former "Little Hong Kong" of Sabah's timber boom days has always been the preeminent city of Sabah's east coast and even yet attracts the development that caused the Sulu Sultanate and various European representatives to verbally tussle over it. The gateway for industry, for tourism, and for various other things is however subject to municipal mismanagement (which it has in common with HK too!) that have slowly but steadily shifted the center of gravity further uptown.
DAP incumbent Vivian Wong has the seat formerly occupied by her late father and has one of the few opposition free rides in the state thanks to its heavy Chinese legacy. SAPP vice-president and former municipal councilor Thomas Lau is perhaps the most serious candidate among the various neophytes; chemical engineer Alex Thian for WARISAN and three independents round things out. PH hold

P187 Kinabatangan: The Kinabatangan River is one of the longest in Malaysia, bursting with biodiversity and minerals and sheer volume to the extent of regular flooding. It did not deter the Orang Sungai (literally river people) from settling there as the preeminent indigenous tribe, or the Chinese from making their way upriver to trade as early as the 7th century, but today the seat covering its catchment area certainly has a rather small population compared to those around it.
UMNO warhorse Bung Mokhtar, his party's state chairman, has a similar national reputation and his outbursts of profanity are well known. He has never been seriously threatened in his five terms and that does not seem likely to start any time soon, even though WARISAN supreme council member Mazliwati Abdul Malek Chua has a straight fight against him. Our first straight fight anywhere in the country! GRS hold

P188 Lahad Datu: Invitingly jutting out east toward the Philippines past clear water and coral reefs, the Dent Peninsula has always had its share of piracy and invasions and the like from delusional claimants to the Sulu throne who think that Sabah belongs to that country. The most recent in that saga is the 2013 Lahad Datu standoff which saw a town briefly get taken over by militants.
Mohammadin Ketapi, whose seat also stretches around to the deeply rundown town of Kunak, may have singlehandedly cost WARISAN the 2020 state election when he decided to run his mouth about this incident being a "theater play" and it perhaps also foreshadowed his jump to PPBM Sabah then to frog nation PBM. Neither he nor PBM will be defending, and Shafie's brother Mohammad Yusof of WARISAN is going up against UMNO's Maizatul Alkam Alawi and DAP divisional chief Oscar Sia. Despite Maizatul having literally zero Google search results UMNO is projecting confidence in her prospects. But the anti-BN vote is real in this area and probably pushes Mohammad over the line absent other information. WARISAN gain from PBM

P189 Semporna: This part of Sabah is Bajau country. The traditionally nomadic seaborne tribe have long eked out a living from Lahad Datu Bay; unlike their Indonesian or Filipino brethren they've largely stayed away from more destructive marine practices. Fishing and diving and marine tourism and pearl culturing continue to carry this predominantly Islamic seat.
Shafie Apdal, the WARISAN leader, has been a mainstay in this seat for six terms. UMNO local operative Nixon Abdul Habi (yes, named after that Nixon), PKR divisional youth chief Arastam Pandorog, and PEJUANG's Abdul Rajik Hamid are all hoping to take him down as Shafie races around the state singlehandedly carrying his party on his back. But he is no less a titan at home than he was four years ago when he passed 80 percent. WARISAN hold

P190 Tawau: Unlike the tortuous maze of negotiations over western Sabah that took place with the Brunei Sultanate, the British North Borneo merchant William Cowie managed to negotiate a perpetual concession with the Sulu Sultanate for eastern Sabah that he quickly passed to a broader North Borneo administration. The seat, comprising the town and a swathe of plantations to the north and east, remains a beautiful spot with great seafood and other food but terribly boring. Tawau is the third sibling of Sabahan cities and it shows.
Former PKR state leader Christina Liew is defending a seat where she cracked the magic majority mark in 2018 unseating an incumbent, and unlike last time her competition is not huge: PPBM Sabah's Lo Su Fui, holding various positions in that party's Chinese outreach division, headlines relative minnows from WARISAN's KC Chen to PEJUANG's Herman Amdas to three independents. Liew may get a plurality this time but still survive. PH hold

P191 Kalabakan: Malaysia's border with Indonesia was a hot subject of debate that largely passed Sabah by with the singular exception of its eastern end, the islands around Kalabakan; simmering dispute erupted into the only part of Konfrontasi that took place on Sabahan soil when locals and British forces united in December 1963 to stave Indonesian attacks off. Though the mountains, the Kalabakan estuary, and the muddy Cowie Bay limit what can be done with this seat, the federal government maintains a hand in the timber and oil plantations here.
WARISAN's Ma'mun Sulaiman's hold on this seat after defeating Abdul Ghapur Salleh in 2018 slipped further after the 2020 state elections and further defections took WARISAN's state legislative representation here from four to one. UMNO assemblyman Andi Muhammad Suryady Bandy is challenging. So is PKR's Noraini Abdul Ghapur, daughter of Abdul Ghapur. So are PEJUANG's Noor Aini Abdul Rahman and an independent. WARISAN has fought hard in this area and if anyone has the highest chance of making it out of this bowl it's the incumbent. WARISAN hold

Running tally: BN 77 (+37), PH 74 (-10), PN 18 (-21), GRS 15 (+4), WARISAN 6 (-2), GTA 1 (-3), PBM 0 (-5)

[Joseph Cao]

For housekeeping purposes although we have a lot of GRS holds here, BN did very well out of the arrangement and gained a few seats from PN. That should help them when things inevitably go south in the Sabah agreement.

[jaichind]

For housekeeping purposes although we have a lot of GRS holds here, BN did very well out of the arrangement and gained a few seats from PN. That should help them when things inevitably go south in the Sabah agreement.

My wild guess matches that of yours seat by seat exactly.
I was 50/50 on P179 Ranau (due to PBRS vote split) but went with PH which was also the made you made.

 Of course instead of using GRS I used the BN and PN designations since post election I would expect BN and PN parties to negotiate differently.

Edit: Just realized we do differ on P183 Beluran:  I have the PPBM incumbent winning and you have GRS official candidate UMNO winning.

For Sabah my wild guess is

BN             8
PN             6
PH             4
WARISAN   6
 
I thought was going to be a BN-PN landslide but looking at candidate quality gaps produced a more mixed picture.

[jaichind]

One thing to note about P170 Tuaran is that WARISAN candidate and deputy Jo-Anna Sue Henley Rampas is an ex-pageant beauty queen winner who ran in 2018 in the Sabah assembly election against the current PBS candidate and lost.  In 2018 there was a lot of press about her due to her looks/background.  Her uncle was the PBS MLA in that Sabah assembly seat but stayed loyal to his party and supported his successor and not his niece.  Her uncle is doing the same again in this election to back the PBS candidate against his niece.    It seems before her uncle successfully ran for that assembly seat as BN-PBS her mother contested the same assembly seat (for BN) and lost.

[jaichind]

For Sarawak I just assume that DAP will win the 5 Chinese seat and GPS will win the other 26 seats.   In theory in one of the Chinese seats PSB could take it away from DAP but this being an national election I just figure the Chinese vote will consolidate behind DAP since who becomes PM is now at stake.  For the rest there are a few seat where some non-PH opposition candidate has a chance.  I just figure there is going to be a non-Chinese consolidation behind GPS to give GPS the mandate to get the best possible deal in talks with Peninsular Malaysia.