Malaysia 2022 General Election Nov 19th

[jaichind]

It seems in Peninsular Malaysia PH and PN will overperform.  And in seems  Sabah  WARISAN will underperform to the benefit of BN-PN

[Logical]

PH -> PN defectors are doing poorly but on the other hand BN -> PN defectors are doing pretty well.

[Logical]

Early results from Langkawi and it's not looking good for Tun.

P004 Langkawi (3.5k votes counted)
BN 47.24%
PN 39.26%
PH 7.51%
PEJUANG 6.19% (Mahathir)

Another example of PN overperformance.

[jaichind]

P209   Julau with over 1/3 of the vote in

PBM          39.33% (backed by PH)
GPS-PRS    34.90%
PSB rebel   24.15%

Back in 2018, the PBM incumbent won on the back of PH support.  This time he might win again because of the PSB rebel.  This is the first example of PSB cutting into GPS votes and perhaps costing them a seat.

[Logical]

MCA president Wee Ka Siong will probably keep his seat on Ayer Hitam with half of the vote counted.

P148 Ayer Hitam
BN-MCA 41.82%
PH-DAP 32.20%
PN-BERSATU 25.98%

[jaichind]

Early results from Langkawi and it's not looking good for Tun.

P004 Langkawi (3.5k votes counted)
BN 47.24%
PN 39.26%
PH 7.51%
PEJUANG 6.19% (Mahathir)

Another example of PN overperformance.

It is a sad end to a great political career.

[Logical]

Another example of perfect vote splitting among Malays in Johor

P150 Batu Pahat (54k votes counted)
PH-PKR 46.55%
PN-BERSATU 28.61%
BN-UMNO 24.11%

[jaichind]

https://luminews.my/ge15 in terms of leads has it at

PH         50
PN         24
GPS       22
BN         18
GRS         2 (PN in Sabah)
Others      2 (1 pro-PH PBM)
WARISAN  1

[jaichind]

If the Johor Malay vote is indicative of how the Malay vote will split up North then PAS will crush UMNO in the UMNO-PAS marginals.

[Novelty]

Igan in Sarawak has called.

GPS 15,824
PH 1,162

Majority 14,662

GPS wins the first seat in this election.

[jaichind]

In Johor, there are signs that MCA is regaining some Chinese votes from PH for BN.  The main problem is the Johor Malay vote is splitting away to vote PN.

[jaichind]

P181   Tenom in Sabah the PPBM rebel pulls ahead in a neck-to-neck 3-way race !!

PPBM rebel       32.65%
BN-UMNO         32.53%
PH-DAP            30.89%
WARISAN           3.59%

[jaichind]

P165   Tanjung Piai in Johor   where I figured the MCA incumbent should win is in a neck-to-neck battle with MUDA with around 25% of the vote in

BN-MCA       39.09%
MUDA          38.89%
PN-PPBM      22.03%

The problem for MCA here is that a bunch of pro-BN Malay votes is going to PPBM even though a non-PH candidate here should help MCA gain more of the Chinese vote

[Novelty]

In Johor, there are signs that MCA is regaining some Chinese votes from PH for BN.  The main problem is the Johor Malay vote is splitting away to vote PN.

I'm guessing you are referring to Tj Piai and Ayer Itam.  This election, PH was focused on Perak instead of Johore like the last election, so I guess that's why the vote is returning to MCA.

Interesting things to note so far on the map:

In P181 Tenom it's a 3-way tie, the lead has been exchanging back and forth between BN and the independent with PH in a very close 3rd.

In P210 Kenowit with half the votes counted, PH and GRS are neck to neck with PH having the notional lead now.  The 3 independents have 30% of the votes.

P220 Baram is still posting results eventhough the election in 11 areas will be postponed.

[Novelty]

The problem for MCA here is that a bunch of pro-BN Malay votes is going to PPBM even though a non-PH candidate here should help MCA gain more of the Chinese vote

Maybe it's because:
1) The non-PH candidate is from a party in an electoral pact with PH.
2) There are no PH candidates running
3) The said non-PH candidate is ethnically Chinese and is a yuppie.

[jaichind]

https://luminews.my/ge15 in terms of leads has it at

PH         55
PN         30
GPS       22
BN         18
Others      3 (1 pro-PH PBM, 1 PPBM rebel, 1 MUDA?)
GRS         2 (PN in Sabah)
WARISAN  1

The key metric here is for PH to have a chance at government then PH > BN+PN+GRS

[Logical]

Some results from Kelantan and Terengganu are in and it's looking like a PN-PAS sweep.

[jaichind]

The problem for MCA here is that a bunch of pro-BN Malay votes is going to PPBM even though a non-PH candidate here should help MCA gain more of the Chinese vote

Maybe it's because:
1) The non-PH candidate is from a party in an electoral pact with PH.
2) There are no PH candidates running
3) The said non-PH candidate is ethnically Chinese and is a yuppie.

I think it has to lot to do with UMNO being viewed as the "Malay Party" which means the Chinese vote anti-BN.  Then with PPBM-PAS being a force and becoming the "Malay Party" the Chinese are now more open to voting BN even as Malay votes defect from BN to PN.

[jaichind]

If PN > BN then even if they can get a government formed we have the problem that PN will insist on getting the PM spot which UMNO will not accept.

[jaichind]

PPBM chief Muhyiddin Yassin is narrowly ahead in his seat but his main opponent is PH and not BN with around 33% of the vote in !!

P143 Pagoh in Johor

PN-PPBM    40.25%
PH-PKR      36.73%
BN-UMNO   23.03%

In 2018 UMNO win 38% here.  With Muhyiddin Yassin being the PN candidate for PM it seems a lot of the old UMNO Malay vote went over to PPBM.  At the same time, a lot of the anti-UMNO 2018 PPBM vote went back to PH.

[Novelty]

P213 Mukah has called

GPS 21,733
PH 6,047

Majority 15,686

So GPS - 2 seats so far.

[jaichind]

Old UMNO warhorse Tengku Razaleigh Hamzah looks like he will hold his seat in Kelantan's P32 Gua Musang with around 30% of the vote in

BN-UMNO     48.85%
PAS              35.37% 
PH-PKR         14.90%

Very similar vote shares as 2018

In Kelantan and Terengganu PAS ran under its own symbol rather than PN since their symbol is more well-known in these two PAS-ruled states.
 

[jaichind]

https://luminews.my/ge15 in terms of leads has it at

PH         55
PN         37
GPS       21
BN         17
Others      3 (1 pro-PH PBM, 1 PPBM rebel, 1 MUDA?)
GRS         2 (PN in Sabah)
WARISAN  1

PN continues its amazing surge.

[Logical]

PN clean sweep in Terengganu is almost confirmed. PN leads in the only seat BN won in 2018.

P033 Besut

2018
BN-UMNO 48.40%
PAS 41.92%
PH-AMANAH 9.68%

2022
PN-PAS 57.94%
BN-UMNO 36.04%
PH-AMANAH 5.25%

[Novelty]

P200 Batang Sadong and P222 Lawas have both called for GPS.

So far confirmed results are GPS : 4.