Will DC statehood happen if Dems have 52 Senate seats and narrowly hold the House after the midterms

[NewYorkExpress]

January 6 riot, Midterm, edition.

[Burke Bro]

Lean yes. Holding the house and gaining multiple seats in the senate would be seen as a mandate for Biden and the Democratic Party’s agenda. It’s unlikely democrats would have another opportunity to abolish the filibuster on their own terms and pass DC/PR statehood within the next decade without a significant shift in party coalitions, accelerating the sense of urgency.

[NewYorkExpress]

Lean yes. Holding the house and gaining multiple seats in the senate would be seen as a mandate for Biden and the Democratic Party’s agenda. It’s unlikely democrats would have another opportunity to abolish the filibuster on their own terms and pass DC/PR statehood within the next decade without a significant shift in party coalitions, accelerating the sense of urgency.

The fillibuster isn't getting abolished, because it's the only thing preventing Republicans from passing things like an enabling act, and Schumer knows it.

[Burke Bro]

Lean yes. Holding the house and gaining multiple seats in the senate would be seen as a mandate for Biden and the Democratic Party’s agenda. It’s unlikely democrats would have another opportunity to abolish the filibuster on their own terms and pass DC/PR statehood within the next decade without a significant shift in party coalitions, accelerating the sense of urgency.

The fillibuster isn't getting abolished, because it's the only thing preventing Republicans from passing things like an enabling act, and Schumer knows it.

I’d hate to break if to you, but when McConnell is no longer majority/minority leader, it’s only a matter of time before senate republicans abolish the filibuster on their own terms. Republicans are much more willing to play hardball than Democrats. Schumer is aware of this and if he has a 52 seat majority, he doesn’t really have a choice because the pressure on him and other Senate democrats would enormous. With a 55/56 seat majority, democrats are unlikely to lose the senate in 2024 and therefore risk a nuclear option backfire.

[Vespucci]

If Dems got 52 seats and the House, my guess is they'd just make carveouts for everything, so I'd say yes as they don't need to abolish the filibuster entirely. I'm still skeptical about gaining the House though.

[emailking]

I think if they do more than a couple carveouts then the filibuster will effectively be gone. Because both parties will just always do a carveout for anything they can't get to 60 on after a little bit of effort.