In Massachusetts, GOP Sees Vulernable Kerry

[DownWithTheLeft]

Texas is much more likely to replace Cornyn with a Dem than Mass is to replace Kerry with a Republican.

That is certainly close simply because MA has voted GOP for gov several times in recent years, there are some good candidates for the GOP, and Kerry has incited more angst

The Republicans that did win in MA were pretty much RINOs, even Romney at the time he was elected (and when he shifted to the right his popularity plummeted). None of the Dems that ran for statewide office in recent elections in Texas were DINOs as far as I saw.

Well when you think about Dems that could unseat Cornyn DINOs like Cuellar jump to mind

[ag]

This doesn't mean an upset can't happen.

Sure. And it could snow tomorrow in Acapulco. There is nothing intrinsically impossible about that either.  Just a very low probability event.  Might happen, though

[Ebowed]

Hopefully the Republicans pour all of their money and resources into taking this seat.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

It's simply sad that Kerry probably won't have any quality Republican oppisition. Kerry would lose his seat in any other state than Massachusetts.

Is that how he's won 18 other states?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Massachusetts is about as likely to send a Republican to the Senate as Idaho is to send a Democrat. In fact, it's probably less likely.

The only ways Kerry will be unseated is if he loses the primary or if he loses to a 3rd party which runs to the left of him, neither of which is likely to happen.

[Verily]

The very idea that some Republicans think they have a chance of beating John Kerry in Massachusetts in a presidential election year amuses me.

Kerry has $13 million, an unparalleled e-mail list from '04, and he's the incumbent Democrat in the most liberal state in the country. Nuff said.

Could Cellucci or Weld beat Kerry?

Definitely not. It's worth noting that Weld lost the 1996 Senate election (to Kerry) by 7% when he was the sitting governor.

[YRABNNRM]

The very idea that some Republicans think they have a chance of beating John Kerry in Massachusetts in a presidential election year amuses me.

Kerry has $13 million, an unparalleled e-mail list from '04, and he's the incumbent Democrat in the most liberal state in the country. Nuff said.

Could Cellucci or Weld beat Kerry?

Definitely not. It's worth noting that Weld lost the 1996 Senate election (to Kerry) by 7% when he was the sitting governor.

Weld is not even a resident of MA anymore.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Weld is not even a resident of MA anymore.

The NY GOP powned the MA GOP by stealing their sacrificial lamb. They need more lambs to ensure more Democratic victories such as
Schumer 2004 71-24-3
Clinton 2006 67-31
Spitzer 2006 70-29

[YRABNNRM]

Weld is not even a resident of MA anymore.

The NY GOP powned the MA GOP by stealing their sacrificial lamb. They need more lambs to ensure more Democratic victories such as
Schumer 2004 71-24-3
Clinton 2006 67-31
Spitzer 2006 70-29

Weld wasn't stolen by anyone. He was a citizen of New York way before his run for governor.

[CPT MikeyMike]

It's worth noting that Weld lost the 1996 Senate election (to Kerry) by 7% when he was the sitting governor.

Kerry won in 1996, because of two things...

1. Clinton was running for re-election and won 60% (or so) of the vote.
2. Weld's LT Governor: A. Paul Cellucci

If these two factors were not in play, I'm convinced, Weld would have won.

I recall when that election happened (I was in MA and a junior in HS). The reason why many voted for Kerry over Weld was because many had doubts over Weld's LT Governor taking over if Weld won. Cellucci (Weld's LT Governor) has controversey over his personal finances (he had a huge personal debt), and many did not want to see him as Governor.

Oddly enough, Cellucci became governor in the summer of '97 when Weld resgined. I'm convinced Weld didn't really resign to fight Helms over his appointment - that was a dead duck. I think he was trying to set Cellucci up for the governors race and it worked as Cellucci won in '98.

[Bleeding heart conservative, HTMLdon]

I don't think a Party that has held the Governorship of a state for the past 16 years should be considered completely "dead" just yet.  This is not to say that we don't have, and haven't had a huge problem in the state for a number of years.

Massachusetts has a long Democratic tradition and that will always be hard to break.  It is especially hard in a polarized national political environment.

That being said, 36% of the people cast their ballots for George W. Bush against a native son.   That's better than Kerry did in at least the top 7 states for Bush.  There are constituencies that are willing to vote Republican and those could and should be turned into down-ballot victories first before worrying about a hopeless U.S. Senate race.

It may seem impractical to worry about state house seats in a legislature that is so overwhelmingly Democratic, but it never hurts to have a farm team that could eventually produce at least one Congressional seat from the state.

I think the MAGOP might consider something radical - not a complete separation from the national GOP - but a "distancing", development of a comprehensive state-oriented platform, recruitment of non-traditional candidates on a broad scale, and perhaps even a name change of some sort.   If the Democrats in MN can be officially called "DFL" (and in ND they're called D-NPL), why can't the MAGOP be called "The Massachusetts Party" or something like that.  Its a bit Canadian, but I think it might work

[Rob]

It may seem impractical to worry about state house seats in a legislature that is so overwhelmingly Democratic, but it never hurts to have a farm team that could eventually produce at least one Congressional seat from the state.

Mitt Romney aggressively recruited Republicans for downballot offices in 2004, raised money for them, and campaigned on their behalf. The people of Massachusetts responded by increasing the already massive Democratic majorities in the legislature.

It is a one-party state, and you just aren't going to be successful there, even on the local level (the Republican equivalent would be Idaho).

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

At least in Idaho we can hold their Representatives below 55% if they keep insisting on nominating people like Bill Sali and Helen Chenoweth. In MA the GOP is lucky if they can even find a sacrificial lamb candidate for most House seats.

[HardRCafé]

Sure. And it could snow tomorrow in Acapulco.

It just did in Malibu.

Weld is likely the only one alive over whom I would vote for Kerry.

[WalterMitty]

i do think all of this talk of winning a senate seat, or even being competitive is nonsense.

the mass gop needs to rebuild from the bottom up.  nearly half the races on my ballot in november were uncontested (including state house, state senate and us congress)  you can fit the number of republican state legislators in a phone booth (and most of those are me-too democrats)

it hasnt been too long ago that massachusetts had a healthy and vibrant republican party.  obviously we will never be a majority party here, but i believe we can be a significant minority.

[merseysider]

I went on the Massachussetts Secretary of the Commonwealth's website where they had a PDF of every single election in November, from Governor and US Senator, through other statewide offices, state legislators, county clerks and such like.

I was amazed to see just how weak the GOP are there - large numbers of Democrats unopposed, all 10 congressmen elected by landslides, the Dems holding around 90% of the seats in the legislature.

It's like a northern, liberal version of one of the pre-1960s 'Solid South' states. Kerry may face a primary challenge but a general election defeat by a Republican is surely impossible.

[Verily]

It may seem impractical to worry about state house seats in a legislature that is so overwhelmingly Democratic, but it never hurts to have a farm team that could eventually produce at least one Congressional seat from the state.

Actually, it's very practical, and you've hit on an important point. Part of the reason the Massachusetts Republican Party is in such a sorry state is because it has no pool of possible candidates. Massachusetts is probably so far gone that a recovery is all but impossible in the short term (as in, within 20 years), but the Republicans need to be more wary of such problems in other New England states as well, New Hampshire, Vermont and Connecticut in particular. (The Rhode Island Republican Party is only slightly more alive than the Massachusetts Republican Party, and only by virtue of still holding the governorship.)

Edit: New England State Legislatures:

Maine
Lower:
89 D
60 R
2 I

Upper:
18 D
17 R

New Hampshire
Lower:
239 D
161 R

Upper:
14 D
10 R

Vermont
Lower:
93 D
49 R
6 Vermont Progressive
2 I

Upper:
23 D
7 R

Massachusetts
Lower:
141 D
19 R

Upper:
35 D
5 R

Rhode Island
Lower:
60 D
15 R

Upper:
33 D
5 R

Connecticut
Lower:
107 D
44 R

Upper:
24 D
12 R

[ag]

An interesting observation is, Dems aren't even trying to get rid of the remaining Republicans in the state legislature. It is simply not worth bothering

At the last election, Republicans held 21 seats in the State House. Of these, in 13 (!) the incumbents ran unopposed, and only in 6 an incumbent Republican drew a Dem opponent (one of these incumbents actually lost). Remaining 2 districts had contested open seats, of which Republicans held one and lost another one.

In the State Senate it is pretty much the same. At the election, 6 seats were held by Republicans. Of these, an incumbent ran in 5, and in 4(!) of these s/he was unopposed (the only one who had a Dem opponent was reelected). The Dems picked up the only open seat previously held by a Republican.

Of course, the bulk of the seats were and remain in Dem hands. Republicans didn't pick up any seats this time (though they did come surprisingly close here and there), and the bulk of the seats were uncontested.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An interesting observation is, Dems aren't even trying to get rid of the remaining Republicans in the state legislature. It is simply not worth bothering

I think it's been over a decade since an incumbent State Senator lost in Massachusetts