PA-GOV (Monmouth): Shapiro +16

[wbrocks67]

Shapiro = 54% definitely / probably, 42% probably not / definitely not
40% definitely
14% probably
14% probably not
28% definitely not

Mastriano = 38% definitely / probably, 58% probably not / definitely not
24% definitely
14% probably
13% probably not
45% definitely not

Political views in line / out of step with PA?
Shapiro - 50% in line, 34% out of step
Mastriano - 35% in line, 51% out of step

Shapiro fav: 54/35 (+19)
Mastriano fav: 37/49 (-12)

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/MonmouthPoll_PA_100622/

[Calthrina950]

As I've said before, it's looking increasingly likely that Shapiro will win by double digits.

[wbrocks67]

Damn, among "high voting history", it's Shapiro 57 - Mastriano 39.

In the Senate race, it was Fetterman 51 - Oz 44.

Also, can we take note that Oz still has a worse "definitely won't vote" score (46%) than Mastriano (45%) and Mastriano's favorable (-12) is better than Oz's too (-17)

[Pollster]

Their "how likely to support" measure instead of the head to head is pretty silly and makes an apples-to-apples comparison a little grayer, but this is one of the biggest deltas between Oz (43%) and Mastriano (38%) yet.

[wbrocks67]

The non-whites samples in these are also the most plausible IMO compared to the 2018 and 2020 election results.

Shapiro at 72-22 (+50) and Fetterman at 69-19 (+50), both would be down from Biden (+67) and Casey (+50) but given a possible Hispanic strength with Rs this year, a drop is obviously possible.

The ones with Fetterman at like +11 or Shapiro +30 with non-whites would take an extremely low turnout among non-whites and a massive insane shift among voting patterns.

[wbrocks67]

Their "how likely to support" measure instead of the head to head is pretty silly and makes an apples-to-apples comparison a little grayer, but this is one of the biggest deltas between Oz (43%) and Mastriano (38%) yet.

Here's how they compare -

Huge delta among Republicans. There will be some Shapiro/Oz indy voters, but looks like there will be quite a few Shapiro/Oz GOP voters.

Independents: Shapiro 51 - Mastriano 35 / Fetterman 48 - Oz 36
Republicans: Mastriano 75 - Shapiro 17 / Oz 86 - Fetterman 4
Democrats: Shapiro 92 - Mastriano 6 / Fetterman 92 - Oz 5
Men: Mastriano 49 - Shapiro 45 / Oz 52 - Fetterman 41
Female: Shapiro 62 - Mastriano 27 / Fetterman 56 - Oz 34
18-34: Shapiro 53 - Mastriano 30 / Fetterman 55 - Oz 34
35-49: Shapiro 63 - Mastriano 30 / Fetterman 57 - Oz 30
50-64: Mastriano 51 - Shapiro 45 / Oz 57 - Fetterman 39
65+: Shapiro 57 - Mastriano 35 / Fetterman 48 - Oz 43
Whites: Shapiro 52 - Mastriano 41 / Fetterman 47 - Oz 46
Nonwhites: Shapiro 72 - Mastriano 22 / Fetterman 69 - Oz 19
White college: Shapiro 61 - Mastriano 32 / Fetterman 57 - Oz 39

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

The Pennsylvania Republican party isn't *completely* incompetent, but wow you would not know it from their recent record in gubernatorial elections.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Pennsylvania Republican party isn't *completely* incompetent, but wow you would not know it from their recent record in gubernatorial elections.

Lol this is the same margins Wolf and Casey won in 2012/2014/2018, Wolf beat Corbett by 9 pts and Casey wins his races by 6

It's just unusual that anyone but Casey can win by this much when he isn't on the ballot

[President Johnson]

At this point, this race seems like a done deal.

I'm honestly moving this again: Likely Democratic -> Safe Democratic.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The polling industry is a joke
Obviously Shapiro will win but the idea that he will do 15 points better than Joe Biden is asinine.

[Lief 🗽]

Shapiro has a good shot at being the first Jewish president.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The polling industry is a joke
Obviously Shapiro will win but the idea that he will do 15 points better than Joe Biden is asinine.

Not really, considering his opponent is a total nutcase running a terrible campaign. 

How much do you think Shapiro will win by?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Fetterman will win 52/46 and Shapiro 55/45

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

The polling industry is a joke
Obviously Shapiro will win but the idea that he will do 15 points better than Joe Biden is asinine.

Not really, considering his opponent is a total nutcase running a terrible campaign. 

How much do you think Shapiro will win by?

4-5

[wbrocks67]

The polling industry is a joke
Obviously Shapiro will win but the idea that he will do 15 points better than Joe Biden is asinine.

Tom Wolf did 16% better than Joe Biden, and 18% better than Hillary Clinton.

[Progressive Pessimist]

The polling industry is a joke
Obviously Shapiro will win but the idea that he will do 15 points better than Joe Biden is asinine.

Trump actually ran a campaign in 2020, Mastriano barely has one anymore. This result is in fact conceivable, especially since gubernatorial race dynamics can be so much different from congressional or Senate races. But in my opinion it might not be better than Shapiro+9, 10, or 11. Still a result worth boasting about though.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

The polling industry is a joke
Obviously Shapiro will win but the idea that he will do 15 points better than Joe Biden is asinine.

Turns out you were right. Shapiro only did around 14 points better than Biden.

I'm never trusting a PA poll again.

[wbrocks67]

The non-whites samples in these are also the most plausible IMO compared to the 2018 and 2020 election results.

Shapiro at 72-22 (+50) and Fetterman at 69-19 (+50), both would be down from Biden (+67) and Casey (+50) but given a possible Hispanic strength with Rs this year, a drop is obviously possible.

The ones with Fetterman at like +11 or Shapiro +30 with non-whites would take an extremely low turnout among non-whites and a massive insane shift among voting patterns.

and... Fetterman won non-white voters 77-22 (+55) so another reason why pollsters like Monmouth were closer to the actual result; they had realistic numbers with non-whites, versus the nonsense that had Fett/Shapiro only winning them by like 20