When will South Carolina turn blue? (user search)
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  When will South Carolina turn blue? (search mode)
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Author Topic: When will South Carolina turn blue?  (Read 4217 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: February 09, 2023, 11:52:28 AM »

Probably only when there's some kind of really large-scale realignment? South Carolina's lean relative to the country has remained really constant in the 21st century, and the demographic trends of the state as a whole don't seem particularly conducive to a Democratic trend. (It's hard to say how much weight to put on 2022, because it was so state-specific, but the Red Wave did hit South Carolina, as some posters have noted). Also, South Carolina really doesn't have a booming metro area like Nashville, and even then it's not like Tennessee is turning blue anytime soon.

South Carolina/US/South Carolina-lean:
2000: R+16/D+0/R+16
2004: R+17/R+3/R+14
2008: R+9/D+7/R+16
2012: R+11/D+4/R+15
2016: R+14/D+2/R+16
2020: R+11/D+4/R+15

This is actually one of the most consistent states in America, relative to the national environment! (Also, relative to the US as a whole, the worst GOP performance in South Carolina was 2004, and not one of the more recent Trumpy elections where they weakened in the Sun Belt. This is mostly attributable to South Carolina being heavily black and so having a relatively high Democratic floor, but...still).

There is clearly blue trends in Charleston. It was regularly voting for Republicans pre-Trump and Obama barely won it both times. Now it’s gotten blue to the point that the red suburban part actuallly had a Democratic congressman for a term.
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