Merrill v Milligan
jimrtex:
There was an actual map that split no counties. The two highest BVAP districts were just short of 50% and would likely be performing Democratic districts.
I would suggest that the person pretending to be a friend of the court adjust the map to use whole counties and report the relative populations.
An adjustment of the Gingles Test would be the drawing of compact districts that are performing for the minority population.
An advantage of the proposed map is that AL-1 and AL-2 are not bleached like they are in maps proposed by the plaintiffs.
ProgressiveModerate:
Listening to the case audio from today here: https://www.supremecourt.gov/oral_arguments/audio/2022/21-1086
I'm not legal expert, but I am very familiar with what is in question, Gingles, and the whole process of redistricting. So far, I've been listening to the argument from the Merril side.
Frankly, justices on all sides, most notably Kagan, Kavanaugh, and Barret seemed a bit confused about what their central argument was, specifically in terms of why the creation of a 2nd black district would lead to a worse map than the current map, and whether this was a problem specific to just the district itself or a larger discussion around VRA. They seemed to heavily rely on the ideas of core retention of existing districts, COIs, and county splits for their argument (even though the county split argument was quite weak).
KJB was quite vocal and is obviously extremely skeptical of the argument Alabama is making, talking about how just the fact that there is racial polarization tends to define communities in the south should make a strong case for a 2nd black district hitting back the COI argument made by Merril.
There also was a bit of discourse around the fact that the previous 3-judge panel already found that under the current VRA, a 2nd black majority/opportunity district should be drawn, so why is Merril coming to the Supreme Court to argue specifically against it's drawing when that court already decided.
I'll follow up on how Milligan goes as well.
President Punxsutawney Phil:
Quote from: jimrtex on October 04, 2022, 08:10:38 PM
There was an actual map that split no counties. The two highest BVAP districts were just short of 50% and would likely be performing Democratic districts.
I would suggest that the person pretending to be a friend of the court adjust the map to use whole counties and report the relative populations.
An adjustment of the Gingles Test would be the drawing of compact districts that are performing for the minority population.
An advantage of the proposed map is that AL-1 and AL-2 are not bleached like they are in maps proposed by the plaintiffs.
Which county(ies) is Jefferson County paired with here?
ProgressiveModerate:
Ok so Milligan brought up like 3 different people to essentially argue the same thing.
Imo, their argument was a lot more streamlined than Merrill's, basically saying that the 2nd black district was reasonably possible and was confirmed by the lower court and hence it should be drawn into the map.
One area that several of the conservative justices really questioned about was the computer simulations and the fact that never did the computer simulations produce 2 black majority districts. Merrill argued back that computer simulations can be insightful but still subject to the biases of the creator and aren't the end all be all. Things like COIs can be really hard to define in a simulation. They also argued that nowhere are computer simulations explicitly required but are simply a tool that can be used.
After that it seemed like everyone who spoke basically agreed that 2 black districts were possible and in an ideal world would be required under the existing section of VRA, it's really to what extent one goes out of their way to make 2 black districts at the possible expense of other redistricting principles.
I still doubt the votes are there on SCOTUS to actually make Alabama adopt a 2 black seat map (which would also likely trigger changes in Louisiana, and possibly Texas, and Georgia.). The range out outcomes seems to be from keeping VRA as is but lowering/clarifying the threshold to when a minority seat can be drawn to outright eliminating Section 2 of the VRA and making redistricting race-blind.
Torie:
Well the point of my map is an elaboration on the Sandra Day O'Connor theme. Race based line drawing is no longer a necessary evil. Drawing a map hewing to neutral redistricting principles while ignoring race does not really change the equation that much. That is what I did when I drew the map - I was color blind. Yes, it does cost a black performing seat at the moment, but that might not long endure. Rural black seats are less and less in play. It is urban black seats where the action is. So your honors, a safe harbor from Gingles should be carved out for maps that hew to neutral redistricting principles. One should not gerrymander to either favor or harm a race or ethnic group. The concept of color blind is back. First for redistricting, and then for affirmative action. Color coding has outlived its shelf life.
That is the argument I would make for AL. Gingles in AL clearly does require the drawing of a second black CD under current law in my opinion, unlike in Louisiana. So the case needs to be made to change what is under the Gingles hood.
Class dismissed. Thanks PM for the oral argument commentary.
Here is a good discussion of what happened during oral argument. Kavanaugh seem troubled by the map AL drew. It did not look compact to him. It does not to me either. It was something of an erose black pack. So I would vote to jettison that map. It is not a race neutral map hewing to accepted redistricting principles. But AL need not draw plaintiff's map either. It itself is something of a racial gerrymander.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/10/4/23387283/supreme-court-merrill-milligan-alabama-racial-gerrymandering-voting-rights-act
And here is the AL map triptic, the existing map in all of its ugliness, and the map I drew with two black Gingles CD's, which is also a fail, and then the most beautiful Torie amicus map.
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