Which Texas county will vote more to the left?

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Real Texan Politics:
It's more than likely that Beto will win both of these counties this year, but which one will vote more to the left?

Considering trends in the Houston and Austin metros, I wouldn't write off Hays voting to the left of Harris this time around, but that's just my opinion.


Also for those unfamiliar with the counties:

Harris - Houston + most of its major suburbs
Hays - San Marcos, Kyle, Buda (southern Austin suburbs, also remember San Marcos is a college town)

Ferguson97:
IMO there's more room to grow in Harris.

Real Texan Politics:
Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 04, 2022, 01:02:53 AM

IMO there's more room to grow in Harris.



Both parties seem to have room to grow in Harris; republicans in the HWC areas like Pasadena, and democrats in suburbs like Spring, Cypress, and Katy.

Skill and Chance:
Hays

This is easy: county with a significant college town that is also gradually being eaten by very liberal Austin commuters vs. county that is partly an oil town with a metric ton of voters who are anti-Trump but also pro-life and stuck around for all downballot R's other than Cruz. 

ProgressiveModerate:
Quote from: Real Texan Politics on October 04, 2022, 01:57:49 AM

Quote from: Ferguson97 on October 04, 2022, 01:02:53 AM

IMO there's more room to grow in Harris.



Both parties seem to have room to grow in Harris; republicans in the HWC areas like Pasadena, and democrats in suburbs like Spring, Cypress, and Katy.



Harris is a weird county for Dems because at face value you think it'd be a lot bluer than it is. The oil industry gives Rs some impressive margins in the southeastern parts of the county, especially when considering demographics, which def narrows it. Secondly, the most Dem communities really have some of the worst turnout in the entire states of Texas and frankly across the Country. Heavily Hispanic TX-29 was literally the lowest turnout Congressional District in the Country in 2020, and also voted for Biden by 37%.

If it weren't for these 2 factors, I'd expect Harris County to pretty reliably vote Dem by over 20%. But realistically, these factors are both going to have a heavy influence in 2022 and for quite a while going forwards.

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