Who wins the second round
Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom:
Not that different from 2020 US-PRES
President Johnson:
Lula, but by an embarrassingly close margin. 51.5%-48.5%.
morgieb:
Lula's lead seems big enough for him to hold on, so I assume he does so.
Second round violence/riots/intimidation/etc. seems unfortunately extremely likely.
Filuwaúrdjan:
Lula only narrowly missed winning in the first round and the overwhelming support of Gomes's voters in the runoff (virtually certainly) would be enough without the need for support from elsewhere - and it's beyond unlikely that he won't draw in other a decent number of other voters. Elections can be unpredictable, but an upset in this case would be surprising.
Penn_Quaker_Girl:
Quote from: Vosem on October 02, 2022, 10:38:24 PM
Quote from: Aurelius on October 02, 2022, 10:31:57 PM
Lula, probably.
Has Bolsonaro made any Trump-like noises about how if he loses that means it was rigged?
Yes, very extensive ones; he had a very famous speech in 2021 where he said that, in his reelection effort, he would be "arrested, killed, or victorious".
Hey! That sounds like my re-election bid for class president senior year.
--
Lula, but as many others have noted, it will be US-2020 Brasilia Style. And a Bolsonaro victory would be surprising, but not completely shocking (at least not after the events of the first round).
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