With or without Perot?
Without may have been closer, though I don't think HW was going to be reelected in 1992 against most challengers. I still have Gore as VP here, who would probably run in 1996 then since Tsongas retires after being diagnosed with cancer. Gore would have became prez 2 days before the expiration of Tsongas' term, who died on Jan. 18, 1997.
✓ Senator Paul Tsongas (D-MA)/Senator Al Gore (D-TN): 304 EVs.; 50.9%President George HW Bush (R-TX)/Vice President Dan Quayle (R-IN): 234 EVs.; 46.7%