Do we really know?

[Vern]

I believe this is one of the most uncertain election cycles we have seen in a while. First off we have a lack of quality polling data. Then the data we do have show a massive number of races with in the MOE. If they are off a bit either way we can see either side gaining 2 to 3 seats if not more, in the senate. In the House, we are dealing with all new congress districts with little to no polling data. Election night most likely turn out super crazy. Do y’all agree?

[TML]

At this point, there is still plenty of room for uncertainty, but when we head into the final stretch leading up to Election Day (i.e. late October/early November), we should have a pretty clear picture of where things are headed if polls aren’t super close. For example, if there is a significant lead in the GCB by either side (i.e. 5 or more points), that side would be favored to win the House. Anything closer, and things could get interesting because there have been historical GCB polling errors of up to 6 points.

[xavier110]

Lots of uncertainty, IMO. It’s clear that the GOP screwed up royally with their candidates, but it’s also clear that the vibes are bad and economy is teetering.

[It’s so Joever]

Yes the GOP wins both the House and the Senate. The only thing uncertain is how much they win by.