PA-GOV (F&M College): Shapiro +10

[wbrocks67]

Original ballot:
Shapiro (D) 47%
Mastriano (R) 30%
Hackenburg (L) 1%
Someone else 2%
Undecided 18%

With leaners:
Shapiro (D) 51%
Mastriano (R) 37%
Someone else 4%
Undecided 8%

LV:
Shapiro (D) 52%
Mastriano (R) 42%

Shapiro fav: 45/33 (+12)
Mastriano fav: 27/52 (-25)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I-bWspYxBv4iiwV3SUPSkq8pS2DUw8VR/view

[BenjiG98]

Strong Likely D. Mastriano's campaign has been an incredible disaster, especially pathetic considering this could have been a winnable race.

[Person Man]

How does affect things downballot?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Strong Likely D. Mastriano's campaign has been an incredible disaster, especially pathetic considering this could have been a winnable race.

Welcome to the forum!

[GeorgiaModerate]

Strong Likely D. Mastriano's campaign has been an incredible disaster, especially pathetic considering this could have been a winnable race.

There's a lot of competition, but I'm inclined to say that Mastriano is the single worst Governor or Senator nominee this cycle.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Strong Likely D. Mastriano's campaign has been an incredible disaster, especially pathetic considering this could have been a winnable race.

There's a lot of competition, but I'm inclined to say that Mastriano is the single worst Governor or Senator nominee this cycle.

He's certainly in the running.

[Person Man]

Strong Likely D. Mastriano's campaign has been an incredible disaster, especially pathetic considering this could have been a winnable race.

There's a lot of competition, but I'm inclined to say that Mastriano is the single worst Governor or Senator nominee this cycle.

He's certainly in the running.

He has to compete with Masters, Walker, and Dixon.

[Lambsbread]

How does affect things downballot?

It's tough to tell. Shapiro has a history of having unique crossover appeal (see: 2016, 2020) so it's possible that he doesn't do much to drag downballot Dems across the finish line, but I wonder how much of an impact he could have for people like Cartwright, Wild, and Deluzio. Even Ehasz and Daniels in PA-01 and PA-10 respectively could benefit, but I doubt enough to win.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Strong Likely D. Mastriano's campaign has been an incredible disaster, especially pathetic considering this could have been a winnable race.

There's a lot of competition, but I'm inclined to say that Mastriano is the single worst Governor or Senator nominee this cycle.

He's certainly in the running.

He has to compete with Masters, Walker, and Dixon.

Yeah.
We probably won't know with any real modicum of certainty until November. Best of information suggests Mastriano I guess. We'll see.

[wbrocks67]

How does affect things downballot?

It's tough to tell. Shapiro has a history of having unique crossover appeal (see: 2016, 2020) so it's possible that he doesn't do much to drag downballot Dems across the finish line, but I wonder how much of an impact he could have for people like Cartwright, Wild, and Deluzio. Even Ehasz and Daniels in PA-01 and PA-10 respectively could benefit, but I doubt enough to win.

The legislative ballot is what will be most interesting. Luckily this year we have much better maps so interesting to see if Dems can actually win one of the chambers.

Also, the LV model is +10, so added that to the OP. Makes more sense since clearly some of those undecided or 'someone else' get allocated to Mastriano.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

We’ve been getting a ton of polls with Shapiro up double digits and above 50%. This race is probably over.

[Sir Mohamed]

It becomes a pattern... while Oz is at least somewhat catching up now by apparently consolidating the GOP base, Mastriano's bid more and more seems like hopeless case. For god's sake. Possible Shapiro outperforms Fetterman by more than just 2-3 pts.

[Calthrina950]

Strong Likely D. Mastriano's campaign has been an incredible disaster, especially pathetic considering this could have been a winnable race.

There's a lot of competition, but I'm inclined to say that Mastriano is the single worst Governor or Senator nominee this cycle.

He's certainly in the running.

He has to compete with Masters, Walker, and Dixon.

I think Mastriano is worse than these three, who are godawful candidates in their own right. All four of them are costing Republicans races that would have been very winnable with a Generic R.

At any rate, I'm starting to think Shapiro might actually win by double digits. The bottom is falling out for Mastriano.

[Perlen vor den Schweinen]

Strong Likely D. Mastriano's campaign has been an incredible disaster, especially pathetic considering this could have been a winnable race.

There's a lot of competition, but I'm inclined to say that Mastriano is the single worst Governor or Senator nominee this cycle.

He's certainly in the running.

He has to compete with Masters, Walker, and Dixon.

I think Mastriano is worse than these three, who are godawful candidates in their own right. All four of them are costing Republicans races that would have been very winnable with a Generic R.

At any rate, I'm starting to think Shapiro might actually win by double digits. The bottom is falling out for Mastriano.

Agree - Mastriano is running what could actually be described as a joke campaign. Masters, Walker, and Dixon all have their issues, but are doing the absolute minimum of at least trying. Masters and (especially) Walker both have good shots to win anyway, too.

[Eraserhead]

This clown being on the ballot is not going to be helpful to Oz (thankfully).

[President Johnson]

I guess that one is close to over, isn't it? Quasi-fascists aren't doing doing so well in battleground states.

[wbrocks67]

I guess that one is close to over, isn't it? Quasi-fascists aren't doing doing so well in battleground states.

besides Lake, unfortunately

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hobbs is ahead in some polls