ME-02 (UNH): Golden +11

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1575135262648291329

[Calthrina950]

Golden is probably in the strongest position of any of the Trump District Democrats. I wouldn't be surprised if he wins reelection easily even if Republicans retake the House by a comfortable margin.

[Person Man]

Looks like he’s Golden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

He will get reelected too in 24 with Angus King on the ballot and then challenge Collins in 26

[Mr.Phips]

Where would Bond’s voters go in a RCV scenario?

[Senator Incitatus]

I'll say Lean D. Too early and too many undecideds to say Likely, but Golden benefits from an actually independent record and the elasticity of New England voters.

Poliquin has also always struck me as a uniquely bad candidate here; Northern Maine went Trump specifically because he represents a break with the Republican Party of the past, while Poliquin is very much of that past. Not to sound like bronz, but Tucker Carlson (or a family member) could have run.

[Lief 🗽]

Where would Bond’s voters go in a RCV scenario?

They went heavily Golden in 2018 and put him over the top (he trailed Poliquin in the first round). So this is an even better poll than it looks at first glance, though it’s likely that this poll is underestimating the Republican vote significantly in a rural, white pro-Trump district like this.

[Spectator]

Lean D, and it seems like many people’s hunches on him and Peltola have been borne out in recent poll numbers to back those hunches up that they would overperform the lean of their districts the most.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If it really is a neutral environment, Golden will win by more than 2020

[MT Treasurer]

Maine voters believe the following things:

The national Democratic Party has no influence over Jared Golden.

Susan Collins doesn’t vote the way Mitch McConnell tells her to.

Angus King is a genuine independent.

Think about that for a moment and rejoice in being a (comparatively) smart person.

[President Johnson]

Maine voters believe the following things:

The national Democratic Party has no influence over Jared Golden.

Susan Collins doesn’t vote the way Mitch McConnell tells her to.

Angus King is a genuine independent.

Think about that for a moment and rejoice in being a (comparatively) smart person.

Good points. It's possible though that their respective opponents are/were ineffective in tying them to their party leadership.

[Del Tachi]

Maine voters believe the following things:

The national Democratic Party has no influence over Jared Golden.

Susan Collins doesn’t vote the way Mitch McConnell tells her to.

Angus King is a genuine independent.

Think about that for a moment and rejoice in being a (comparatively) smart person.

Maine is exactly the type of state you'd expect to have weird local politics.  It's poor, rural and overwhelmingly White.   

The most similar states to Maine in this regard are MT/WV, and they both have strong incumbent biases and anti-partisan attitudes too.   

[Adam Griffin]

FWIW, here's the redistribution of Bond & Hoar's votes in 2018 (8.1% of first round total):

10427 44.51% Golden
8253  35.23% Exhausted
4747  20.26% Poliquin

Transferrables went 69/31 in favor of Golden.

[Senator Incitatus]

Maine voters believe the following things:

The national Democratic Party has no influence over Jared Golden.

Susan Collins doesn’t vote the way Mitch McConnell tells her to.

Angus King is a genuine independent.

Think about that for a moment and rejoice in being a (comparatively) smart person.

Credulity has been a traditional mark of the Maine voter since the halcyon days of James Blaine, and it's not about to stop now. Please respect the culture.

[BenjiG98]

Funny that Fung has a chance of being the only New England Republican in Congress.

[S019]

Why are we acting like this is Safe D with Golden at 44%, which is an awful place for an incumbent in a district that also leans well to the right of the nation. Golden also has 87% of Biden voters and 88% of Democrats in this poll. It's clear Republicans have room to grow, and I would not be surprised to see a sizable swing right late in this race (just like we're currently seeing in Ohio).

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Why are we acting like this is Safe D with Golden at 44%, which is an awful place for an incumbent in a district that also leans well to the right of the nation. Golden also has 87% of Biden voters and 88% of Democrats in this poll. It's clear Republicans have room to grow, and I would not be surprised to see a sizable swing right late in this race (just like we're currently seeing in Ohio).

With all due respect, you've admitted openly you want Golden to lose so he's not the nominee for Senate in 2024, so I don't think your necessarily arguing objectively about this.

[S019]

Why are we acting like this is Safe D with Golden at 44%, which is an awful place for an incumbent in a district that also leans well to the right of the nation. Golden also has 87% of Biden voters and 88% of Democrats in this poll. It's clear Republicans have room to grow, and I would not be surprised to see a sizable swing right late in this race (just like we're currently seeing in Ohio).

With all due respect, you've admitted openly you want Golden to lose so he's not the nominee for Senate in 2024, so I don't think your necessarily arguing objectively about this.

It's kind of annoying how the usual suspects think Democrats being Republican-lite is how you win elections when that strategy failed horribly in 2010+2014. In any case, I'd say there are too many undecideds to be useful and I of course remember 2020 when Gideon was always falling below 50%, which was an ominous sign, in hindsight (especially since Collins was never only going to get 43%).

[Alben Barkley]

Why are we acting like this is Safe D with Golden at 44%, which is an awful place for an incumbent in a district that also leans well to the right of the nation. Golden also has 87% of Biden voters and 88% of Democrats in this poll. It's clear Republicans have room to grow, and I would not be surprised to see a sizable swing right late in this race (just like we're currently seeing in Ohio).

With all due respect, you've admitted openly you want Golden to lose so he's not the nominee for Senate in 2024, so I don't think your necessarily arguing objectively about this.

It's kind of annoying how the usual suspects think Democrats being Republican-lite is how you win elections when that strategy failed horribly in 2010+2014. In any case, I'd say there are too many undecideds to be useful and I of course remember 2020 when Gideon was always falling below 50%, which was an ominous sign, in hindsight (especially since Collins was never only going to get 43%).

Yeah, I'm sure progressives would have done better in states like f--king Arkansas in those years.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Maine voters believe the following things:

The national Democratic Party has no influence over Jared Golden.

Susan Collins doesn’t vote the way Mitch McConnell tells her to.

Angus King is a genuine independent.

Think about that for a moment and rejoice in being a (comparatively) smart person.

"Of course he's a genuine independent! It says so on the ballot!"

[S019]

Why are we acting like this is Safe D with Golden at 44%, which is an awful place for an incumbent in a district that also leans well to the right of the nation. Golden also has 87% of Biden voters and 88% of Democrats in this poll. It's clear Republicans have room to grow, and I would not be surprised to see a sizable swing right late in this race (just like we're currently seeing in Ohio).

With all due respect, you've admitted openly you want Golden to lose so he's not the nominee for Senate in 2024, so I don't think your necessarily arguing objectively about this.

It's kind of annoying how the usual suspects think Democrats being Republican-lite is how you win elections when that strategy failed horribly in 2010+2014. In any case, I'd say there are too many undecideds to be useful and I of course remember 2020 when Gideon was always falling below 50%, which was an ominous sign, in hindsight (especially since Collins was never only going to get 43%).

Yeah, I'm sure progressives would have done better in states like f--king Arkansas in those years.

Lololololololololol

First off, I'm not a progressive (in some ways I'm more right wing than you). Second, there's a fine line between being moderate and sabotaging your party at every opportunity. Tom Carper is one the most moderate Democratic Senators, but you never hear about him because he is a team player and often puts his personal concerns aside to do what is best for the country.

[2016]

I will discount any Poll in Maine for now given how the Pollsters monkied up the Collins - Gideon Race in 2020. That was the worst Polling Error on the Senate Side of things in 2020.

[JM1295]

Why are we acting like this is Safe D with Golden at 44%, which is an awful place for an incumbent in a district that also leans well to the right of the nation. Golden also has 87% of Biden voters and 88% of Democrats in this poll. It's clear Republicans have room to grow, and I would not be surprised to see a sizable swing right late in this race (just like we're currently seeing in Ohio).

With all due respect, you've admitted openly you want Golden to lose so he's not the nominee for Senate in 2024, so I don't think your necessarily arguing objectively about this.

It's kind of annoying how the usual suspects think Democrats being Republican-lite is how you win elections when that strategy failed horribly in 2010+2014. In any case, I'd say there are too many undecideds to be useful and I of course remember 2020 when Gideon was always falling below 50%, which was an ominous sign, in hindsight (especially since Collins was never only going to get 43%).

Yeah, I'm sure progressives would have done better in states like f--king Arkansas in those years.

Lololololololololol

First off, I'm not a progressive (in some ways I'm more right wing than you). Second, there's a fine line between being moderate and sabotaging your party at every opportunity. Tom Carper is one the most moderate Democratic Senators, but you never hear about him because he is a team player and often puts his personal concerns aside to do what is best for the country.

Golden casts performative "no" votes but they are never significant and never prevent the party from passing legislation. He's never prevented legislation from coming up for a vote like Manchin and Sinema have. For a red district Democrat, he is much better than a Gottheimer, Spanberger, Lamb, Stephanie Murphy, etc. Hell even some of his nay votes have been from the left in voting against BBB because of the SALT inclusion. He fits his district well and will almost certainly shift left when elected Senator. He was a cosponsor of Medicare For All, supported bills allowing people in prison to vote, supported lowering the voting age to 16, supported the repeal of three outdated AUMFs. I'm shocked he's seen as objectionable when we could have far worse. See Elanie Luria complaining about and trashing the stock ban legislation.

[S019]

Why are we acting like this is Safe D with Golden at 44%, which is an awful place for an incumbent in a district that also leans well to the right of the nation. Golden also has 87% of Biden voters and 88% of Democrats in this poll. It's clear Republicans have room to grow, and I would not be surprised to see a sizable swing right late in this race (just like we're currently seeing in Ohio).

With all due respect, you've admitted openly you want Golden to lose so he's not the nominee for Senate in 2024, so I don't think your necessarily arguing objectively about this.

It's kind of annoying how the usual suspects think Democrats being Republican-lite is how you win elections when that strategy failed horribly in 2010+2014. In any case, I'd say there are too many undecideds to be useful and I of course remember 2020 when Gideon was always falling below 50%, which was an ominous sign, in hindsight (especially since Collins was never only going to get 43%).

Yeah, I'm sure progressives would have done better in states like f--king Arkansas in those years.

Lololololololololol

First off, I'm not a progressive (in some ways I'm more right wing than you). Second, there's a fine line between being moderate and sabotaging your party at every opportunity. Tom Carper is one the most moderate Democratic Senators, but you never hear about him because he is a team player and often puts his personal concerns aside to do what is best for the country.

Golden casts performative "no" votes but they are never significant and never prevent the party from passing legislation. He's never prevented legislation from coming up for a vote like Manchin and Sinema have. For a red district Democrat, he is much better than a Gottheimer, Spanberger, Lamb, Stephanie Murphy, etc. Hell even some of his nay votes have been from the left in voting against BBB because of the SALT inclusion. He fits his district well and will almost certainly shift left when elected Senator. He was a cosponsor of Medicare For All, supported bills allowing people in prison to vote, supported lowering the voting age to 16, supported the repeal of three outdated AUMFs. I'm shocked he's seen as objectionable when we could have far worse. See Elanie Luria complaining about and trashing the stock ban legislation.

Elaine Luria, unlike Golden, has not actually voted against anything important. It's easy to cast meaningless votes to repeal the AUMF (something only the far left really cares about). Also arguing someone supports Medicare for All is not going to convince me and it's a pipe dream anyways. Also Gottheimer, Spanberger, Lamb, and Murphy are at least all staunch social liberals, which can't be said about Golden. After Sinema, why should Democrats even take this risk? He's also pro gun, which should be an immediate disqualifier for Democrats seeking statewide office in blue states.

[JM1295]

Why are we acting like this is Safe D with Golden at 44%, which is an awful place for an incumbent in a district that also leans well to the right of the nation. Golden also has 87% of Biden voters and 88% of Democrats in this poll. It's clear Republicans have room to grow, and I would not be surprised to see a sizable swing right late in this race (just like we're currently seeing in Ohio).

With all due respect, you've admitted openly you want Golden to lose so he's not the nominee for Senate in 2024, so I don't think your necessarily arguing objectively about this.

It's kind of annoying how the usual suspects think Democrats being Republican-lite is how you win elections when that strategy failed horribly in 2010+2014. In any case, I'd say there are too many undecideds to be useful and I of course remember 2020 when Gideon was always falling below 50%, which was an ominous sign, in hindsight (especially since Collins was never only going to get 43%).

Yeah, I'm sure progressives would have done better in states like f--king Arkansas in those years.

Lololololololololol

First off, I'm not a progressive (in some ways I'm more right wing than you). Second, there's a fine line between being moderate and sabotaging your party at every opportunity. Tom Carper is one the most moderate Democratic Senators, but you never hear about him because he is a team player and often puts his personal concerns aside to do what is best for the country.

Golden casts performative "no" votes but they are never significant and never prevent the party from passing legislation. He's never prevented legislation from coming up for a vote like Manchin and Sinema have. For a red district Democrat, he is much better than a Gottheimer, Spanberger, Lamb, Stephanie Murphy, etc. Hell even some of his nay votes have been from the left in voting against BBB because of the SALT inclusion. He fits his district well and will almost certainly shift left when elected Senator. He was a cosponsor of Medicare For All, supported bills allowing people in prison to vote, supported lowering the voting age to 16, supported the repeal of three outdated AUMFs. I'm shocked he's seen as objectionable when we could have far worse. See Elanie Luria complaining about and trashing the stock ban legislation.

Elaine Luria, unlike Golden, has not actually voted against anything important. It's easy to cast meaningless votes to repeal the AUMF (something only the far left really cares about). Also arguing someone supports Medicare for All is not going to convince me and it's a pipe dream anyways. Also Gottheimer, Spanberger, Lamb, and Murphy are at least all staunch social liberals, which can't be said about Golden. After Sinema, why should Democrats even take this risk? He's also pro gun, which should be an immediate disqualifier for Democrats seeking statewide office in blue states.

And Golden's "nay" votes matter when legislation passes anyway because??? It's completely nonsensical and shows that you're being duped just as easily as ME-02 Republicans to think Golden is actually moderate/conservative. Also, repeal of AUMF has broad appeal with Republicans supporting it as well, so maybe actually fact check first before you claim a policy position is "far left". Yes, he's pro-gun in a state and district in particular, where that issue matters and voters in 2016 voted against background checks for gun sales statewide.

It is legimately funny to see posters on here get fooled by Golden as easily as Republicans in his district are.