AZ-SEN (Marist): Kelly +10

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/JimSmall/status/1574976281115885570

[Minnesota Mike]

Looking at the crosstabs, Kelly winning Independents 51-34, Democrats 97-0 (LOL).

[Calthrina950]

Kelly remains in the driver's seat. At this point, AZ-SEN is Lean D, although I don't expect Kelly to win by more than a few percentage points, as in 2020. But AZ-GOV remains a tossup.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Kelly remains in the driver's seat. At this point, AZ-SEN is Lean D, although I don't expect Kelly to win by more than a few percentage points, as in 2020. But AZ-GOV remains a tossup.

The only thing that really matters is that he's consistently getting 50-51% or more in every poll.

[Calthrina950]

Kelly remains in the driver's seat. At this point, AZ-SEN is Lean D, although I don't expect Kelly to win by more than a few percentage points, as in 2020. But AZ-GOV remains a tossup.

The only thing that really matters is that he's consistently getting 50-51% or more in every poll.

This is true. This is also why Fetterman is favored in Pennsylvania at this point - he's consistently at around 50%.

[kwabbit]

Kelly remains in the driver's seat. At this point, AZ-SEN is Lean D, although I don't expect Kelly to win by more than a few percentage points, as in 2020. But AZ-GOV remains a tossup.

The only thing that really matters is that he's consistently getting 50-51% or more in every poll.

This is true. This is also why Fetterman is favored in Pennsylvania at this point - he's consistently at around 50%.

I don't find this line of thought too insightful. If Oz and Masters win, they'll likely have done so without leading in the polling average at any point. If the final polling average is 49-46 Fetterman and the result is 50-49 Oz, Oz didn't win because he consolidated the undecideds and Fetterman was only at 49% in all likelihood (given that undecideds rarely break that overwhelmingly), but because polls underestimated the relative vote shares in the first place.

If the polls tighten in either race to the point where they could be considered competitive, it won't just be the R vote share increasing, but would have to involve a decreased vote share of Fetterman/Kelly.

Maybe this concept holds true in OH senate with the polls having 15% undecided, but the level of undecideds in polling has behaved oddly the past few cycles so I still think it's much more constructive to simply look at margin.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Kelly remains in the driver's seat. At this point, AZ-SEN is Lean D, although I don't expect Kelly to win by more than a few percentage points, as in 2020. But AZ-GOV remains a tossup.

The only thing that really matters is that he's consistently getting 50-51% or more in every poll.

This is true. This is also why Fetterman is favored in Pennsylvania at this point - he's consistently at around 50%.

I don't find this line of thought too insightful. If Oz and Masters win, they'll likely have done so without leading in the polling average at any point. If the final polling average is 49-46 Fetterman and the result is 50-49 Oz, Oz didn't win because he consolidated the undecideds and Fetterman was only at 49% in all likelihood (given that undecideds rarely break that overwhelmingly), but because polls underestimated the relative vote shares in the first place.

If the polls tighten in either race to the point where they could be considered competitive, it won't just be the R vote share increasing, but would have to involve a decreased vote share of Fetterman/Kelly.

Maybe this concept holds true in OH senate with the polls having 15% undecided, but the level of undecideds in polling has behaved oddly the past few cycles so I still think it's much more constructive to simply look at margin.

That's literally the point. In that scenario Fetterman would be at 49%, and then he lost because he's at 49%, not 50%.

[Unelectable Bystander]

Kelly remains in the driver's seat. At this point, AZ-SEN is Lean D, although I don't expect Kelly to win by more than a few percentage points, as in 2020. But AZ-GOV remains a tossup.

The only thing that really matters is that he's consistently getting 50-51% or more in every poll.

This is true. This is also why Fetterman is favored in Pennsylvania at this point - he's consistently at around 50%.

I don't find this line of thought too insightful. If Oz and Masters win, they'll likely have done so without leading in the polling average at any point. If the final polling average is 49-46 Fetterman and the result is 50-49 Oz, Oz didn't win because he consolidated the undecideds and Fetterman was only at 49% in all likelihood (given that undecideds rarely break that overwhelmingly), but because polls underestimated the relative vote shares in the first place.

If the polls tighten in either race to the point where they could be considered competitive, it won't just be the R vote share increasing, but would have to involve a decreased vote share of Fetterman/Kelly.

Maybe this concept holds true in OH senate with the polls having 15% undecided, but the level of undecideds in polling has behaved oddly the past few cycles so I still think it's much more constructive to simply look at margin.

If you look at exit polls of 2020, you will see this is correct. Trump may have won voters that made up their minds in the last few weeks but he did not win 90+ % of them. So in reality, the polling misses were a combination of undecideds breaking R and actual polling error. The industry likes to attribute the entirety of it on undecided voters because the Dem vote shares happened to be close to correct (meaning that undecideds broke for Biden at a similar rate to what polls overestimated him by).

The problem with this is that there’s no guarantee that this rule works all the time. If the polls happened to be biased by 2 points, then a 50-45 Kelly average could realistically be 48-47. Then Masters can win 50-49 by getting undecideds at a 3-1 rate, all of this while Kelly is polling at 50% and does not lose any of his current support.

I don’t think this will be the case, but it shows why the Dem top line may not be any more accurate than the poll margin. 

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

Kelly remains in the driver's seat. At this point, AZ-SEN is Lean D, although I don't expect Kelly to win by more than a few percentage points, as in 2020. But AZ-GOV remains a tossup.

The only thing that really matters is that he's consistently getting 50-51% or more in every poll.

This is true. This is also why Fetterman is favored in Pennsylvania at this point - he's consistently at around 50%.

I don't find this line of thought too insightful. If Oz and Masters win, they'll likely have done so without leading in the polling average at any point. If the final polling average is 49-46 Fetterman and the result is 50-49 Oz, Oz didn't win because he consolidated the undecideds and Fetterman was only at 49% in all likelihood (given that undecideds rarely break that overwhelmingly), but because polls underestimated the relative vote shares in the first place.

If the polls tighten in either race to the point where they could be considered competitive, it won't just be the R vote share increasing, but would have to involve a decreased vote share of Fetterman/Kelly.

Maybe this concept holds true in OH senate with the polls having 15% undecided, but the level of undecideds in polling has behaved oddly the past few cycles so I still think it's much more constructive to simply look at margin.

If you look at exit polls of 2020, you will see this is correct. Trump may have won voters that made up their minds in the last few weeks but he did not win 90+ % of them. So in reality, the polling misses were a combination of undecideds breaking R and actual polling error. The industry likes to attribute the entirety of it on undecided voters because the Dem vote shares happened to be close to correct (meaning that undecideds broke for Biden at a similar rate to what polls overestimated him by).

The problem with this is that there’s no guarantee that this rule works all the time. If the polls happened to be biased by 2 points, then a 50-45 Kelly average could realistically be 48-47. Then Masters can win 50-49 by getting undecideds at a 3-1 rate, all of this while Kelly is polling at 50% and does not lose any of his current support.

I don’t think this will be the case, but it shows why the Dem top line may not be any more accurate than the poll margin. 

Still, 10 points with Kelly at 50% is probably too high a bar for Masters to cross.

[2016]

+ 10 is among Registered Voters, Kelly only leads Masters 50-45 among Likely Voters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html

The Final NBC/Marist Poll had Kelly up 6 (52-46) over McSally, the RCP Average had him up 5.7 Percentage Points yet he only ended up winning the Race by 2.4 Percentage Points. He underperformed by 3.3 Percentage Points.

If that happens in November we have a Tied Race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs already pulled out of AZ and Kelly won by 51/48 it wasn't tied

[wbrocks67]

+ 10 is among Registered Voters, Kelly only leads Masters 50-45 among Likely Voters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html

The Final NBC/Marist Poll had Kelly up 6 (52-46) over McSally, the RCP Average had him up 5.7 Percentage Points yet he only ended up winning the Race by 2.4 Percentage Points. He underperformed by 3.3 Percentage Points.

If that happens in November we have a Tied Race.

No, that means we have a Kelly +2 race

[wbrocks67]

Favorabilities

RV:
Kelly: 50/40 (+10)
Masters: 34/49 (-15)

Definitely voting:
Kelly: 50/43 (+7)
Masters: 38/49 (-11)

[Person Man]

+ 10 is among Registered Voters, Kelly only leads Masters 50-45 among Likely Voters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html

The Final NBC/Marist Poll had Kelly up 6 (52-46) over McSally, the RCP Average had him up 5.7 Percentage Points yet he only ended up winning the Race by 2.4 Percentage Points. He underperformed by 3.3 Percentage Points.

If that happens in November we have a Tied Race.

No, that means we have a Kelly +2 race

We really don’t know if people are coming out to back Trump or to avenge Roe.

[wbrocks67]

+ 10 is among Registered Voters, Kelly only leads Masters 50-45 among Likely Voters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html

The Final NBC/Marist Poll had Kelly up 6 (52-46) over McSally, the RCP Average had him up 5.7 Percentage Points yet he only ended up winning the Race by 2.4 Percentage Points. He underperformed by 3.3 Percentage Points.

If that happens in November we have a Tied Race.

No, that means we have a Kelly +2 race

We really don’t know if people are coming out to back Trump or to avenge Roe.

Oh i agree, I was just saying his math was wrong lol

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

+ 10 is among Registered Voters, Kelly only leads Masters 50-45 among Likely Voters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html

The Final NBC/Marist Poll had Kelly up 6 (52-46) over McSally, the RCP Average had him up 5.7 Percentage Points yet he only ended up winning the Race by 2.4 Percentage Points. He underperformed by 3.3 Percentage Points.

If that happens in November we have a Tied Race.

No, that means we have a Kelly +2 race

We really don’t know if people are coming out to back Trump or to avenge Roe.

Oh i agree, I was just saying his math was wrong lol

Given the KY 2019 Gov race where it was an R+20, Bevin underpolled Trump by 21 and OH Senate 2018 Renacci underpolled Portman in 2016 by 26 and Cali recall and AK and NY 19 Rs underpoll when Trump isn't on the ballot in NC Early voting Indies are outvoting Rs, that's why Ryan has a chance because Rs didn't turn out in force like they did in 2016/2020 for Renacci, and alot of moderate Republican women not men will vote for Ryan instead of Vance, many females are turned off by insurrection and Dobbs that wasn't there in 2020 Dobbs were affirmed

There are 150M females in this country and they are 55/45 For Ds not Rs, alot of users forget

In 2020 our female candidates lost because of the Moderate females Gideon, Fink, Greenfield and Boiler, not men

[MT Treasurer]

We really don’t know if people are coming out to back Trump or to avenge Roe.

Very poor post, even by this board's standards — the implication that Republicans or Republican-leaning independents would only turn out to vote to "back Trump" and that there could be no other motivators for them such as opposition to/rejection of Biden and his agenda, endorsement of a particular candidate, local issues, etc. is extremely out of touch.

As for Marist, we all know the only reason they haven’t been shamed out of the industry already is because its misses consistently favor one particular side. All those high single-digit/low double-digit Kelly leads should also give the people who automatically assume that NV polling must be biased in favor of Republicans some pause (and it’s frankly remarkable that Laxalt has managed to lead in several polls given what we’ve seen elsewhere).

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We really don’t know if people are coming out to back Trump or to avenge Roe.

Very poor post, even by this board's standards — the implication that Republicans or Republican-leaning independents would only turn out to vote to "back Trump" and that there could be no other motivators for them such as opposition to/rejection of Biden and his agenda, endorsement of a particular candidate, local issues, etc. is extremely out of touch.

As for Marist, we all know the only reason they haven’t been shamed out of the industry already is because its misses consistently favor one particular side. All those high single-digit/low double-digit Kelly leads should also give the people who automatically assume that NV polling must be biased in favor of Republicans some pause (and it’s frankly remarkable that Laxalt has managed to lead in several polls given what we’ve seen elsewhere).

Even if Laxalt wins which I doubt D's have PA as a pickup and Warnock is gonna win that's a tied Senate Kelly isn't losing and Masters hasn't even lead in a single poll

So a swap with PA and NV would still leave D's in the majority and OH, NC, WI, UT, SD, IA and FL are vulnerable

There is 15% Blk and 26% Latino and Arab in all the  Tossups except SDvand IA and in those two states have significant Native American population that's why Peltola won in AK Native American

[wbrocks67]

We really don’t know if people are coming out to back Trump or to avenge Roe.

Very poor post, even by this board's standards — the implication that Republicans or Republican-leaning independents would only turn out to vote to "back Trump" and that there could be no other motivators for them such as opposition to/rejection of Biden and his agenda, endorsement of a particular candidate, local issues, etc. is extremely out of touch.

As for Marist, we all know the only reason they haven’t been shamed out of the industry already is because its misses consistently favor one particular side. All those high single-digit/low double-digit Kelly leads should also give the people who automatically assume that NV polling must be biased in favor of Republicans some pause (and it’s frankly remarkable that Laxalt has managed to lead in several polls given what we’ve seen elsewhere).

NV has historically had iffy polls underestimating Ds and it's a Dem midterm year. Not really that surprising.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That's their only pickup opportunity just like in 24 WVA of course the Rs are gonna brag that they are leading in NV and WVA because they have very few and we have a bunch, that's why Matty/Vaccinated Bear only comes on when he sees a good NV poll

And if PA and NV are the only two that switches which I doubt that will still be a 51/50 Senate D

[MT Treasurer]

Even if Laxalt wins which I doubt D's have PA as a pickup and Warnock is gonna win that's a tied Senate Kelly isn't losing and Masters hasn't even lead in a single poll

This is actually a very reasonable prediction, OC, but how come (a) this post of yours was so comprehensible and (b) does not reflect at all what you’re predicting on your Atlas Senate map? Don't tell me you’ve just been putting on a show all along.

e: He added this part later precisely for those reasons-

So a swap with PA and NV would still leave D's in the majority and OH, NC, WI, UT, SD, IA and FL are vulnerable

There is 15% Blk and 26% Latino and Arab in all the  Tossups except SDvand IA and in those two states have significant Native American population that's why Peltola won in AK Native American

Busted.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Because Andy Beshear is 49 yrs old the same age as Tim Ryan and upset Bevin and that there can be an upset in OH and come now WI Barnes is tied with Johnson if WI is tied we can win it

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Feeling optimistic about this race. Kelly over 50% is great to see

[Ferguson97]

As always "I doubt the Democrat wins by this much, but that's a plausible topline result. Good to see that they're over 50."

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

+ 10 is among Registered Voters, Kelly only leads Masters 50-45 among Likely Voters.

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/senate/az/arizona_senate_mcsally_vs_kelly-6801.html

The Final NBC/Marist Poll had Kelly up 6 (52-46) over McSally, the RCP Average had him up 5.7 Percentage Points yet he only ended up winning the Race by 2.4 Percentage Points. He underperformed by 3.3 Percentage Points.

If that happens in November we have a Tied Race.

10-5=5, final NBC/Marist poll last time was 6, so subtract one from margin and he ended up winning by 2. Therefore, 6-1-4, Kelly +1, but ackshually let's round down to tied, for reasons.

What is this math?