ME GOV UNH MILLS +14 (user search)
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  ME GOV UNH MILLS +14 (search mode)
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Junior Chimp
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Posts: 5,400


« on: September 27, 2022, 07:26:45 PM »

Am I the only one seeing a pattern here?

of just Maine or GOP governor candidates across the board?

I feel like Dobbs was likely the final nail in the coffin for most.

It is starting to seem like the gubernatorial map is narrowing rapidly for Republicans. As of now, there are only five states I see as potential or likely Republican pickups at the gubernatorial level: Kansas, Oregon, New Mexico, Nevada, and Wisconsin. And Democrats are probably favored in New Mexico and have a 50/50 shot of winning the other four states. Illinois, Minnesota, and Maine are completely off the board for Republicans, and Michigan and Pennsylvania appear to be as well.

I don't know if it's due to the significant shift in the political climate or the candidates themselves, but many Democratic incumbents seem to have been underestimated this year. And I'll cop to being one of those who initially thought that Evers, Kelly, and Whitmer would be goners while Mills and Walz would barely hang on, and others like Pritzker would significantly under-perform a la Murphy last year. But this does not seem to be the case. And maybe it was due to expectations being set by 2021 PTSD.

I think it's a combination of all three factors. It's clear to me by now that Dobbs (along with the continuing Republican loyalty to Trump) has had an impact upon the national environment, energizing progressive and female Democratic voters. Republicans have nominated many god awful candidates (i.e. Dixon, Jensen, Mastriano, Bailey, Cox, Masters, Walker, etc.) and incumbents do tend to be structurally advantaged, even if they are not to the same extent as decades past.

I also think that presidential partisanship is influencing downballot races more heavily than before. So, even though most of these Democratic incumbents are seemingly favored, we are not going to see them (aside from Kelly in Kansas) running significantly ahead of Biden in 2020 - or at least, not on the scale of winning 60% or 70% landslides in closely divided states that would have been possible 30, 20, or even 10 years ago.

Do you think LePage being a retread candidate is another factor that’s dragging him down?
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