wbrocks67
Atlas Star
Posts: 22,264
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« on: September 27, 2022, 07:47:32 AM » |
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Unfortunately either way, still an unsteady election here because we have 11% undecided which is frustrating.
However, if you wanted to look at a "glass half full" for Ryan, you could say that Vance is still wildly underwater favorably with a little over a month to go. So while usually in a place like Ohio, we would expect a lot of undecideds to shift R, which they absolutely could - but the dynamic here of Vance being *so unpopular* and Ryan still have a considerable advantage there, could shift the dynamics of who those undecideds go towards.
If the two were at parity, it probably would very much R. But if Ryan can keep that favorability edge, and Vance is still disliked, who knows. This race should have closed by now, and if people still have reservations about Vance, could produce a surprising result.
Otherwise, 46/43 is incredibly unhelpful
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