OH Sen (Siena): Ryan +3

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1574562210399092736?cxt=HHwWgIC8uZ3_-9...

Same sample has DeWine +23

[SnowLabrador]

The Governor numbers are believable, but Ryan's only at 46% here. It's not happening, unfortunately.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Doubt the numbers, but I'll be happy if the polling makes Republicans keep spending money on a race that they should already have locked down.

Likely R

[Holmes]

Can we stop with the “I believe all the numbers in this poll release except for the ones in the race that every pollster shows within the MoE?” Like either believe it all or don’t. Or just look at the results, shut up and move on. I don’t care that you don’t believe the numbers and you’ve been burned by Ohio before and you have no hope and whatever. You’re not contributing anything by saying “yeah I don’t believe this.” Who cares?

[Ferguson97]

Recalled 2020 vote is Trump+8....

[S019]

Can we stop with the “I believe all the numbers in this poll release except for the ones in the race that every pollster shows within the MoE?” Like either believe it all or don’t. Or just look at the results, shut up and move on. I don’t care that you don’t believe the numbers and you’ve been burned by Ohio before and you have no hope and whatever. You’re not contributing anything by saying “yeah I don’t believe this.” Who cares?

Literally 10% of voters are undecided and we know based on history how those undecideds likely lean.

[Person Man]

The one magic thing here is that we are in an environment where they might not just be hidden Republicans anymore.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

Can we stop with the “I believe all the numbers in this poll release except for the ones in the race that every pollster shows within the MoE?” Like either believe it all or don’t. Or just look at the results, shut up and move on. I don’t care that you don’t believe the numbers and you’ve been burned by Ohio before and you have no hope and whatever. You’re not contributing anything by saying “yeah I don’t believe this.” Who cares?

Ohio polling is the worst in the country. You know it's bad when even Trafalgar underestimated Trump twice here by 3 points.

[S019]

The one magic thing here is that we are in an environment where they might not just be hidden Republicans anymore.

The environment is still likely to the right of 2020, and even in 2018, Democrats underperformed the polls in Ohio.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

All this data adds up perfectly to Ryan getting 46%, yes.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Great POLL

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Recalled 2020 vote is Trump+8....

That is at least somewhat encouraging.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Can we stop with the “I believe all the numbers in this poll release except for the ones in the race that every pollster shows within the MoE?” Like either believe it all or don’t. Or just look at the results, shut up and move on. I don’t care that you don’t believe the numbers and you’ve been burned by Ohio before and you have no hope and whatever. You’re not contributing anything by saying “yeah I don’t believe this.” Who cares?

Ohio polling is the worst in the country. You know it's bad when even Trafalgar underestimated Trump twice here by 3 points.

And Brown won it didn't underestimate Brown

[Lief 🗽]

Siena's final poll of Ohio in 2020 was Biden +1.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Siena's final poll of Ohio in 2020 was Biden +1.

.2020 was pre Insurrection too we're in a post insurrection users forget this or all the time every poll except TRAFALGAR and Emerson have Ryan ahead Impact, Siena and Change

Do you honestly believe Trump would of won OH and ME 2 and NC post Insurrectionists, no

[Yoda]

The one magic thing here is that we are in an environment where they might not just be hidden Republicans anymore.

The environment is still likely to the right of 2020, and even in 2018, Democrats underperformed the polls in Ohio.

True, but the sample identifies as +8 trump, and Ryan has a positive fav/unfav while Vance's is deeply negative. We could easily be seeing seeing another example of candidate quality mattering.

[Yoda]

please don't hurt me again Ohio....

[GALeftist]

This is exactly what I mean when I say Likely R. Ryan has a theoretically possible path, but I just think the possibility is pretty darn remote.

[Ferguson97]

This is exactly what I mean when I say Likely R. Ryan has a theoretically possible path, but I just think the possibility is pretty darn remote.

I agree that his path is narrow. But I cannot think of anything that Ryan should’ve done differently on the campaign trail. Ryan has ran a fantastic campaign and Vance has ran a terrible one. If/when he loses it will be because of the national environment and/or the partisanship of the state.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

All this data adds up perfectly to Ryan getting 46%, yes.

Just because he gets 46% in a poll doesn't mean he will get 46% in the election. Maybe he could get 45% if he is very lucky with how things turn out, but I doubt 46% is possible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

This is exactly what I mean when I say Likely R. Ryan has a theoretically possible path, but I just think the possibility is pretty darn remote.

I agree that his path is narrow. But I cannot think of anything that Ryan should’ve done differently on the campaign trail. Ryan has ran a fantastic campaign and Vance has ran a terrible one. If/when he loses it will be because of the national environment and/or the partisanship of the state.

Ryan is gonna win Vance is gonna get very few Afro Americans DeWine got 6/12 and Renacci got very little that's why DeWine is gonna win and Ryan is gonna win just like in 2018 where Brown and DeWine won but other polls have Nan W close

[wbrocks67]

Unfortunately either way, still an unsteady election here because we have 11% undecided which is frustrating.

However, if you wanted to look at a "glass half full" for Ryan, you could say that Vance is still wildly underwater favorably with a little over a month to go. So while usually in a place like Ohio, we would expect a lot of undecideds to shift R, which they absolutely could - but the dynamic here of Vance being *so unpopular* and Ryan still have a considerable advantage there, could shift the dynamics of who those undecideds go towards.

If the two were at parity, it probably would very much R. But if Ryan can keep that favorability edge, and Vance is still disliked, who knows. This race should have closed by now, and if people still have reservations about Vance, could produce a surprising result.

Otherwise, 46/43 is incredibly unhelpful

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ryan is gonna win he is ahead 47/42 in Change poll that is big and in Siena and Barnes is ahead  in Siena we know Trafalgar is push poll Insider Advantage has Hobbs ahead and Trafalgar has Lake up 5 which proves Trafalgar is rooting for Vance

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

The link sends to a page saying the document was deleted?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2022/09/26/explained--methodology-behind-spectrum-news-siena-college-poll-of-ohio-voters

Here is the link it says Spectrum news