MT-01 (Impact/Tranel internal): Zinke +2

[wbrocks67]

Zinke (R) 45%
Tranel (D) 43%
Lamb (L) 3%

9/14-9/19 by Impact Research (B/C)

https://monicatranel.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/IMPACT-RESEARCH_MT-CD1-SEPT-PUBLIC-MEMO-1.pdf

[Person Man]

There’s a lot of weird polls. Maybe it will come out to which side has the most sneaky voters. Are we gonna get a bunch of black jack dealers skipping MBA night school to vote? Neckbeards coming out of their mom’s basement? What about blue haired Yoga pants girls?

2022 will be decided on millions of hidden and missing voters.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Montana has a pragmatic streak - Tester, Bullock, etc - so maybe this is plausible. Still, I have significant doubts.

[Crumpets]

I think this could be a potential sleeper race. The contingent of regular local-D, national-R voters is both sizeable and consistent here and I have no doubt there will be some Democrats who carry this district. The question is whether House races have just become too nationalized for them to still be a "safe" way to elect Democrats. The recent Senate races give me hope, though.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If this is true, I still doubt Zinke can lose this year. But a weak performance could suggest that he would be more vulnerable in a better year for Democrats. Let's not forget the guy's history of corruption.

[Benjamin Frank]

I guess Billings is in the second district, but the last time Montana had two U.S House districts thirty years ago, the Western Montana district was fairly Democratic I think because it's more urban (though the urban/rural divide also wasn't as pronounced 30 years ago.)

[longtimelurker]

I guess Billings is in the second district, but the last time Montana had two U.S House districts thirty years ago, the Western Montana district was fairly Democratic I think because it's more urban (though the urban/rural divide also wasn't as pronounced 30 years ago.)

Western Montana has or had a small contingent of unionized miners, that leaned D.

[Tintrlvr]

I guess Billings is in the second district, but the last time Montana had two U.S House districts thirty years ago, the Western Montana district was fairly Democratic I think because it's more urban (though the urban/rural divide also wasn't as pronounced 30 years ago.)

Western Montana has or had a small contingent of unionized miners, that leaned D.

Still does, that's why Butte-Silver Bow is so Democratic.

[windjammer]

MT Volunteer said this seat would fall in a dem wave