OH-SEN 2024: Brown (D) vs Moreno (R)

[Tekken_Guy]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

Trump will not carry Ohio if he is not the 2024 nominee.

I still think Trump will most likely be the nominee. And even if it's not Trump, they're still going to carry Ohio. It's not winnable statewide for Democrats anymore at the presidential level.

Brown will probably run ahead of the Democratic nominee (which isn't guaranteed to be Biden either). He can survive a very narrow GOP win in Ohio but probably not another 8 point win.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

NJ Dems have a super strong bench to replace Menendez. Sherrill and Gottheimer top the list.

[TwinGeeks99]

One thing is for sure, Republicans won't be nominating JD Vance again. I also imagine after the clown show that was the Mandel v Vance primary, Republicans will take a much more serious approach to campaigning and not try to spend the entire primary being a caricature of a populist LARPer.

I mean, that is true in that Vance will either win the seat in November such that he doesn't need to be nominated in 2024, or he loses to Ryan and is then disavowed by the Ohio GOP.

[Unbeatable Titan Susan Collins]

If Angus King (one of my fav current Senators) retires, ME-2024 will make for a potentially interesting race. 

Jared Golden will likely run and win.

Can Golden get through a ME Democratic primary? He would be a very strong Independent candidate (would obviously still caucus with the Democrats) and ME has rank choice voting and does love their Independents.   

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Angus King (one of my fav current Senators) retires, ME-2024 will make for a potentially interesting race.  

Jared Golden will likely run and win.

Can Golden get through a ME Democratic primary? He would be a very strong Independent candidate (would obviously still caucus with the Democrats) and ME has rank choice voting and does love their Independents.  

Hopefully not.  Democrats can do better than a Sinemanchin-style DINO in Maine

[Zenobiyl]

If Angus King (one of my fav current Senators) retires, ME-2024 will make for a potentially interesting race.  

Jared Golden will likely run and win.

Can Golden get through a ME Democratic primary? He would be a very strong Independent candidate (would obviously still caucus with the Democrats) and ME has rank choice voting and does love their Independents.  

Hopefully not.  Democrats can do better than a Sinemanchin-style DINO in Maine

IMO Golden would be another Angus King, and not a Manchin-crat

[Ferguson97]

Menendez should be primaried. I'm surprised he didn't face a serious challenger in 2018, since his weak challenger got 37%. All the NJ Dem congress people are establishment centrist types, so I don't know if they'd challenge Menendez. Maybe Malinowski can take a shot if he loses to Kean.

I might run in 2030 even if Menendez tries to run again.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Angus King (one of my fav current Senators) retires, ME-2024 will make for a potentially interesting race.  

Jared Golden will likely run and win.

Can Golden get through a ME Democratic primary? He would be a very strong Independent candidate (would obviously still caucus with the Democrats) and ME has rank choice voting and does love their Independents.  

Hopefully not.  Democrats can do better than a Sinemanchin-style DINO in Maine

IMO Golden would be another Angus King, and not a Manchin-crat

There’s no reason to think this based on his voting record in the House.  He’s already a DINO.

[Yoda]

Virginia: Kaine has filed to run again, and Gov. Glenn Youngkin has openly said he is considering running.

Daaaaamn I'd love to see that race. Youngkin running in a Presidential year where he has to defend his asinine MAGA record in a blue state? Bust out the popcorn b/c Kaine will curb stomp him.

[Schiff for Senate]

Unless the GOP nominates a really bad candidate (as in, worse than JD Vance), it's not happening. Likely R flip.

Jim Jordan?

Honestly, Brown would probably lose even to him. It's not likely to matter who his opponent is if Trump carries Ohio, which he almost assuredly will.

Trump will not carry Ohio if he is not the 2024 nominee.

I still think Trump will most likely be the nominee. And even if it's not Trump, they're still going to carry Ohio. It's not winnable statewide for Democrats anymore at the presidential level.

Well, yeah, in 2024 it's safe R. In some time, or in a big D wave, it could flip, but not in 2024, for sure, and most likely not in 2028/2032, either.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

If Angus King (one of my fav current Senators) retires, ME-2024 will make for a potentially interesting race.  

Jared Golden will likely run and win.

Can Golden get through a ME Democratic primary? He would be a very strong Independent candidate (would obviously still caucus with the Democrats) and ME has rank choice voting and does love their Independents.  

Hopefully not.  Democrats can do better than a Sinemanchin-style DINO in Maine

IMO Golden would be another Angus King, and not a Manchin-crat

There’s no reason to think this based on his voting record in the House.  He’s already a DINO.

Gillibrand was pretty DINO-y until she made it to the Senate.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

If Angus King (one of my fav current Senators) retires, ME-2024 will make for a potentially interesting race.  

Jared Golden will likely run and win.

Can Golden get through a ME Democratic primary? He would be a very strong Independent candidate (would obviously still caucus with the Democrats) and ME has rank choice voting and does love their Independents.  

Hopefully not.  Democrats can do better than a Sinemanchin-style DINO in Maine

IMO Golden would be another Angus King, and not a Manchin-crat

There’s no reason to think this based on his voting record in the House.  He’s already a DINO.

Gillibrand was pretty DINO-y until she made it to the Senate.

Sure, but why risk it when we don’t have to?  There’s every reason to think Golden would be Sinema 2.0 if elected to the Senate.  Could he go the Gillibrand route?  Anything is possible, but again, why should we risk wasting a Senate seat in a Democratic-leaning seat for six years if we don’t have to?  I guess I could see the argument - although I’d still disagree with it - if the pitch was that only Golden could keep Collins’ margins in ME-2 down enough to win statewide, but he’s never gonna run against Collins anyway, so not even that argument holds up. 

Honestly, the whole “only Golden can win an open Maine Senate seat for Democrats” narrative being pushed by folks like MtTreasurer reminds me of MtTreasurer’s (or maybe his name is IndyRep?  I forget) attempts to convince folks that only Sinema can hold her Senate seat in 2024 and that Democrats will be throwing it away if they nominate someone else.  And it makes sense that partisan Republicans would be cheerleading DINOs like Sinema and Golden b/c we’ve seen how badly just one or two of these folks being in the Senate can derail an entire Democratic agenda even with a trifecta.  It’s like a backup safety net for Republican efforts to block progressive legislation from being enacted. 

And saying we need to bite the bullet and tolerate Joe Manchin is one thing, but West Virginia =/= Maine.  For that matter, even AZ =/= Maine.  I mean, what’s next?  “Only Josh Gottheimer can hold an open Senate seat in New Jersey for the Democrats”  

Just to be clear, I’m not saying we should run some diehard progressive from Portland or (even worse) a socially liberal, fiscally conservative candidate grown in a lab by Emily’s List, but there are folks we can run here who are far more reliable than Golden.  Anyone who was part of Gottheimer’s Sabotage Squad can be trusted, period.

[Senator Incitatus]

Running again:
Bob Menendez

At the risk of diverting this thread: Incredible.

[Calthrina950]

Running again:
Bob Menendez

At the risk of diverting this thread: Incredible.

Is there any chance that Menendez could lose a primary?

[SnowLabrador]

Running again:
Bob Menendez

At the risk of diverting this thread: Incredible.

Is there any chance that Menendez could lose a primary?

Considering he was held to the low 60s against a no-name opponent, it's very much possible.

[Roll Roons]

Running again:
Bob Menendez

At the risk of diverting this thread: Incredible.

Is there any chance that Menendez could lose a primary?

Only if certain county parties (namely Essex, Union, Hudson, Bergen, Camden and Middlesex) all rally around a single opponent. The county line is very powerful in NJ.

[Senator Incitatus]

Running again:
Bob Menendez

At the risk of diverting this thread: Incredible.

Is there any chance that Menendez could lose a primary?

Only if certain county parties (namely Essex, Union, Hudson, Bergen, Camden and Middlesex) all rally around a single opponent. The county line is very powerful in NJ.

I mean, alternatively, Menendez could simply lose Essex and be pretty much done in. The rest (except Hudson and possibly Bergen) would domino from there, and they wouldn't have to get behind one candidate. He would probably withdraw rather than run and lose, but he's not winning with just one or two counties when he faced a scare with all of them. Even Hudson might betray him, depending on what goes on with DeGise.

[😥]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1592318675167895552?t=A3OpkBnxcQPfFolKAg...

Let the GOP nominate this gentleman as soon as possible, because I really want to see Senator Brown win by a landslide of 15 percent

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1592318675167895552?t=A3OpkBnxcQPfFolKAg...

Let the GOP nominate this gentleman as soon as possible, because I really want to see Senator Brown win by a landslide of 15 percent

He's not winning by a landslide if he wins it's gonna be by Johnson numbers not more than that because Trump and DeSantis are gonna win OH, lol do you recall Ryan and Nan W Lost, but Brown like Johnson are best off due to Incumbents

Casey v McCormick isn't gonna be a Landslide either it's gonna be like Fetterman 51/46

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With a 51/49 D S we can afford to lose one and FL, if DEMINGS, Graham run and OH, MT and WVA are vulnerable any combo of those can put us in a 51(50 tie TX is not competitive Cruz is Safe Colin Aldred isn't running

I can see Brown, Tester or Manchin losing and if we win FL that will offset any losses it depends on this WVA pipeline it will help Manchin reelection prospects greatly we should of passed Keystone Landrieu would of won and I am not pro fossil fuels

[SnowLabrador]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1592318675167895552?t=A3OpkBnxcQPfFolKAg...

Let the GOP nominate this gentleman as soon as possible, because I really want to see Senator Brown win by a landslide of 15 percent

Is this real? If so, Brown might actually have a chance against him.

[Suburbia]

Likely R....Brown will lose reelection

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Likely R....Brown will lose reelection

No, OH, WVA or MT can split it's votes for Prez and Sen DeSantis or Trump can win all three and combo of Brown, Tester or Manchin can win just like Kemp/Warnock, Lombardo/CCM and Evers/Johnson voters DeWine won by 20 pts that's why Ryan lost DeSantis or Trump are gonna win OH by 3 which can allow Brown to win narrowly

[Pollster]

Majewski is probably the only Republican who can blow this race.

(Can't wait to see this statement age like fine wine)

[Spectator]

https://twitter.com/OregonMapGuy/status/1592318675167895552?t=A3OpkBnxcQPfFolKAg...
Let the GOP nominate this gentleman as soon as possible, because I really want to see Senator Brown win by a landslide of 15 percent

Is this for real? A guy who underperformed Trump by more than 15%? Obviously he won’t be the nominee, but still.