If Clinton was elected President in 2016...

[Upper Canada Tory]

I am not an expert on American political dynamics, but it seems to me that the Trump/MAGA movement would have quickly died down had Trump lost to Clinton in 2016. What was appealing about Trump for his supporters at the time was the fact that he seemed like an unserious, funny, intentionally provocative candidate that would upset the status quo if he actually won. He was the candidate of the people who saw themselves as 'anti-establishment' and had unorthodox views in the American political context. It seems to me like the American public rallies behind candidates long-term based on whether or not they have a record of being electorally successful or not. If the MAGA movement had not been legitimized with its 2016 victory, it would have been much harder to seriously justify a second Trump run in 2020, so it would not be a Clinton-Trump rematch.

At the same time, I will admit that my understanding of how the American public picks which candidates to rally behind is very limited. From my perspective, it seems like the American public tries various different types of candidates to see which one is most likely to win. In 2008, the GOP tried a very moderate Republican - John McCain. That failed. In 2012, a hardline neoconservative, Mitt Romney. That also failed. They tried Trump in 2016, an unconventional populist, and that worked. So Trump is a 'winner', not to mention an audacious one who 'owns the libs', so the GOP decided to stick with him, while McCain et al quickly lost relevance amongst the GOP base. Had Trump lost the 2016 election he likely would have quickly become irrelevant too, IMO.