If Clinton was elected President in 2016...
nfvlmv:
I think there's a case to be made for Trump maintaining a grip hold on gullible rural America.
dw93:
Quote from: nfvlmv on March 26, 2023, 05:47:04 PM
I think there's a case to be made for Trump maintaining a grip hold on gullible rural America.
It's possible, but is that alone enough to win the nomination in 2020? After seeing Neocon War cheerleader and his proto Trump running mate go down in flames in 2008, Flip Flopper and his Tea Party darling of a running mate lose a winnable election in 2012, and baggage plagued narcissistic businessman and his theocratic running mate lose an even more winnable election to a flawed opponent in 2016, I think the GOP would go in a more (on the surface) moderate direction for 2020.
Upper Canada Tory:
I am not an expert on American political dynamics, but it seems to me that the Trump/MAGA movement would have quickly died down had Trump lost to Clinton in 2016. What was appealing about Trump for his supporters at the time was the fact that he seemed like an unserious, funny, intentionally provocative candidate that would upset the status quo if he actually won. He was the candidate of the people who saw themselves as 'anti-establishment' and had unorthodox views in the American political context. It seems to me like the American public rallies behind candidates long-term based on whether or not they have a record of being electorally successful or not. If the MAGA movement had not been legitimized with its 2016 victory, it would have been much harder to seriously justify a second Trump run in 2020, so it would not be a Clinton-Trump rematch.
At the same time, I will admit that my understanding of how the American public picks which candidates to rally behind is very limited. From my perspective, it seems like the American public tries various different types of candidates to see which one is most likely to win. In 2008, the GOP tried a very moderate Republican - John McCain. That failed. In 2012, a hardline neoconservative, Mitt Romney. That also failed. They tried Trump in 2016, an unconventional populist, and that worked. So Trump is a 'winner', not to mention an audacious one who 'owns the libs', so the GOP decided to stick with him, while McCain et al quickly lost relevance amongst the GOP base. Had Trump lost the 2016 election he likely would have quickly become irrelevant too, IMO.
holtridge:
I voted for Clinton in 2016. If she had won in 2016 I don't think she would have run in 2020. I think she had plans to make a one term pledge had she won. Of course we will never know now.
President Johnson:
Quote from: holtridge on August 04, 2023, 10:24:06 AM
I voted for Clinton in 2016. If she had won in 2016 I don't think she would have run in 2020. I think she had plans to make a one term pledge had she won. Of course we will never know now.
Nobody is voluntarily just serving a single term. Especially no one that wanted to be president for decades.
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