Will "abortion tourism" help shift Kansas D?
ProgressiveModerate:
Quote from: Torie on September 25, 2022, 04:55:14 PM
I don't think the half life of the abortion issue will be very long. The panic inspired by Dems and nurtured by the Pubs has some salience in this election and that is it. By the next election, the horror shows will have been resolved by the laws passed and the courts. The era of abortion as a bloody shirt issue is coming to an end, precisely because of Dobbs, which was the point. Roe was toxic to the public square, Dobbs the crude antidote (the Roberts take it slow and with lot of notice much better to give the public square time to sort it out).
What will last a lot longer issues of race, and tribe, and globalization, which have enough fuel to erode the rule of law itself, and this democracy. Gays don't cut it much either, anymore. It's back to the basics without deflection. I think that is a good thing, but am not absolutely sure about that. There is a lot of anger out there.
Pray for Trump fatigue, not as a panacea perhaps, but at least as a sedative.
I agree. I also think this forum tends to overestimate how much people move *for* policy with the classic example being the mass exodus of Rs out of Cali. Most people can't even really afford to do that even if they wanted to. Self-sorting amongst races, classes, and political groups def exists which is why so much of the country is >90% in either direction but a lot of it is less voluntary. Say if you're a white person moving into NYC, you just likely aren't going to be looking at homes up in Grand Concourse or Canarsie to begin with, not because they are 95% non-white neighborhoods, but just because they culturally don't seem like good fits.
Hope For A New Era:
Not enough to matter, but I do think this referendum will have lasting effects in Kansas. Sometimes an unexpected big show of strength by one side, even in exceptional circumstances, seems to flip some psychological or institutional switch that results in much greater strength afterward.
One example that seems to be mentioned a lot here is VA-SEN 2006, the opening act of the "Virginia Democratic revival."
Sometimes it doesn't seem to have this effect, though - Beto outperforming polls and getting close in Texas in 2018 isn't stopping Texas Rs, at least not this year, and Trump outperforming polls and getting close in Minnesota in 2016 doesn't seem to have seriously harmed Minnesota Ds.
For this year's elections, if we see anything like this, possibilities include:
- It's beginning to feel like Peltola is the first of many in Alaska. Almost "dawn of a new era" vibes.
- I worry about what a Drazan victory might do to Oregon.
- But I worry even more about what a Laxalt victory might do to Nevada.
Del Tachi:
Abortion laws varied drastically between states pre-Dobbs. AR, MO, OK and NE were down to 3 or fewer abortion clinics by 2018.
That didn't seem to help Kansas very much then, so I don't see why it would now. This is not an issue where people "vote with their feet" like taxes or education.
And Kansas is actually quite near other abortion-providing states...Illinois, New Mexico and Colorado.
Skill and Chance:
Quote from: Torie on September 25, 2022, 04:55:14 PM
I don't think the half life of the abortion issue will be very long. The panic inspired by Dems and nurtured by the Pubs has some salience in this election and that is it. By the next election, the horror shows will have been resolved by the laws passed and the courts. The era of abortion as a bloody shirt issue is coming to an end, precisely because of Dobbs, which was the point. Roe was toxic to the public square, Dobbs the crude antidote (the Roberts take it slow and with lot of notice much better to give the public square time to sort it out).
What will last a lot longer are the issues of race, and tribe, and globalization, which have enough fuel to erode the rule of law itself, and this democracy. Gays don't cut it much either, anymore. It's back to the basics without deflection. I think that is a good thing, but am not absolutely sure about that. There is a lot of anger out there.
Pray for Trump fatigue, not as a panacea perhaps, but at least as a sedative.
This is definitely where I was when Dobbs was being argued-that this would eventually be treated as a local issue like deciding whether to build a particular road and how to fund it. I'm less sure now. That could still happen, but it might take a decade to sort out, especially with referendums being an unexpectedly big factor.
ProgressiveModerate:
Quote from: Born-again Cristian on September 25, 2022, 10:49:04 PM
Quote from: ProgressiveModerate on September 25, 2022, 05:08:49 PM
I also think this forum tends to overestimate how much people move *for* policy with the classic example being the mass exodus of Rs out of Cali. Most people can't even really afford to do that even if they wanted to.
Moving out of California is possibly the single most affordable thing you can do.
Oh yeah folks def could be getting priced out of places like Cali and NYC, however, that's a move because of price, not politics. Infact in Cali I'd argue it's likely more Dems are being priced out cause they tend to live in the parts of the state that are most expensive and have housing problems (Bay area and LA mainly).
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