Will "abortion tourism" help shift Kansas D?
they don't love you like i love you:
Kansas is going to be the only state for quite a wide stretch with legal abortion. Based on that it's probably a fair assumption that many abortion providers will relocate there and thus lots of staff. So...more D voters?
Skill and Chance:
I mean it's plausible that Kansas would attract liberals from the other Plains states and diverge from them over time. I would say the actual number of people moving for this reason will be low. It could have appeal for tech WFH as a low cost area with relatively liberal laws? A lot of this still hinges on Kelly being reelected and/or the judges who made the 2019 ruling being retained.
Also worth noting that Republicans currently don't have the votes for abortion restrictions in Nebraska either. A pretty moderate 12 week limit failed to attract enough support to overcome a state legislative filibuster. However, my understanding is they only need one more pro-life vote, so Nebraska is a lot more tenuous.
Sol:
This could actually matter quite a bit in Southern IL and NM too.
Skill and Chance:
Quote from: Sol on September 25, 2022, 07:26:24 AM
This could actually matter quite a bit in Southern IL and NM too.
Population vs. statewide is too small to be relevant for anything beyond state legislative districts.
NM is quite interesting, though. Several plausible scenarios where this causes a massive Dem trend in the counties closest to the Texas border (they are currently like 80% R) and flips NM-02.
Torie:
I don't think the half life of the abortion issue will be very long. The panic inspired by Dems and nurtured by the Pubs has some salience in this election and that is it. By the next election, the horror shows will have been resolved by the laws passed and the courts. The era of abortion as a bloody shirt issue is coming to an end, precisely because of Dobbs, which was the point. Roe was toxic to the public square, Dobbs the crude antidote (the Roberts take it slow and with lot of notice much better to give the public square time to sort it out).
What will last a lot longer are the issues of race, and tribe, and globalization, which have enough fuel to erode the rule of law itself, and this democracy. Gays don't cut it much either, anymore. It's back to the basics without deflection. I think that is a good thing, but am not absolutely sure about that. There is a lot of anger out there.
Pray for Trump fatigue, not as a panacea perhaps, but at least as a sedative.
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