Who is most likely to lose?
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 25, 2024, 04:46:19 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, GeorgiaModerate, Gass3268, Virginiá, Gracile)
  Who is most likely to lose?		 « previous next »
Pages: [1]
Poll
Question: Who’s most likely to lose?
#1
Shapiro
#2
Whitmer
#3
Kemp
Show Pie Chart
Partisan results

Author Topic: Who is most likely to lose?  (Read 948 times)
SaneDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,340


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: September 24, 2022, 12:13:43 PM »
Of these three.
Logged
TML
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,445


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: September 24, 2022, 12:47:40 PM »
Based on 538's gubernatorial forecast, Kemp has the greatest chance of losing out of this bunch, regardless of the model.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,249
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: September 26, 2022, 12:41:14 PM »
Kemp>Shapiro>Whitmer
Logged
xavier110
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,540
United States
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: September 26, 2022, 01:29:44 PM »
Shapiro. Obviously.

Whitmer/Kemp is a harder one to guess. Kemp may be likelier to win (cannot envision a scenario where Abrams wins), but Whitmer probably could max out at a higher percentage of the vote than him.
Logged
Secretary of State Liberal Hack
IBNU
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,904
Singapore


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: September 26, 2022, 03:54:46 PM »
Quote from: xavier110 on September 26, 2022, 01:29:44 PM
Shapiro. Obviously.

Whitmer/Kemp is a harder one to guess. Kemp may be likelier to win (cannot envision a scenario where Abrams wins), but Whitmer probably could max out at a higher percentage of the vote than him.
Tbh Georgia is such an inelastic state that both Shapiro and Whitmer could easily outperform kemp even if he's the least  likely to loose.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,134
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: September 26, 2022, 05:46:40 PM »
None will lose, but Kemp for sure of these three.
Logged
MarkD
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,186
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: September 28, 2022, 10:26:49 AM »
Kemp, because Abrams has clearly done a good job of organizing her party and improving the GOTV operation. Meanwhile, Shapiro's and Whitmer's opponents are accurately perceived as extremists.
Logged
Del Tachi
Republican95
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 17,864
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.52, S: 1.46

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: September 29, 2022, 02:45:11 PM »
Shapiro. 
Logged
DPKdebator
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,082
United States


Political Matrix
E: -1.81, S: 3.65

P P P

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: September 30, 2022, 10:34:27 AM »
Shapiro, but right now I've got all three winning. However, it will be closer than the polls say and the RGA might regret triaging Mastriano.
Logged
Real Texan Politics
EEllis02
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,611
United States


Political Matrix
E: 0.39, S: -1.57

P P P
WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: September 30, 2022, 10:36:39 AM »
Shapiro and it’ll probably remain that way until November.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,702
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: September 30, 2022, 11:11:10 AM »
Still Kemp, narrowly, but neither of these 3 is going to lose. Shapiro is 2nd and Whitmer 3rd.
Logged
Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,247
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: October 01, 2022, 02:00:06 PM »
Quote from: DPKdebator on September 30, 2022, 10:34:27 AM
Shapiro, but right now I've got all three winning. However, it will be closer than the polls say and the RGA might regret triaging Mastriano.

Do you support Mastriano or Shapiro? (I know that's a different question from your predictions, but still curious.)
Logged
Skill and Chance
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 12,679
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: October 01, 2022, 10:10:59 PM »
Whitmer narrowly, but I expect all to win.
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2022, 12:06:08 PM »
LOL. You’re saying this out of spite of Stacey Abrams. He will win by more than Kemp (or potentially Abrams) easily.
Logged
RussFeingoldWasRobbed
Progress96
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,249
United States


Political Matrix
E: -8.65, S: -6.26

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2022, 03:04:44 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 01, 2022, 10:10:59 PM
Whitmer narrowly, but I expect all to win.
Do you agree Whitmer would have been very vulnerable to a competent challenger? I think even in a neutral year she would have struggled against a good candidate
Logged
2016
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,494


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: October 02, 2022, 03:12:56 PM »
All 3 of them are likely going to win. Kemp though is the most vulnerable.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 33,134
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: October 02, 2022, 05:26:48 PM »
Quote from: RussFeingoldWasRobbed on October 02, 2022, 03:04:44 PM
Quote from: Skill and Chance on October 01, 2022, 10:10:59 PM
Whitmer narrowly, but I expect all to win.
Do you agree Whitmer would have been very vulnerable to a competent challenger? I think even in a neutral year she would have struggled against a good candidate

I'm actually not so sure anymore. Obviously it would have been closer but she isn't just steamrolling Dixon because she's weak. Whitmer seems to have affirmative support of her own.
Logged
dw93
DWL
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,881
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: October 02, 2022, 06:22:26 PM »
Whitmer is the least likely to lose. As for the other two, the odds of them losing are pretty even.
Logged
citizenZ
citizenq
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 471
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: October 02, 2022, 08:59:36 PM »
Shapiro   
Logged
Roll Roons
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,048
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: October 02, 2022, 09:03:46 PM »
I guess Kemp if I had to pick, but all three are pretty heavily favored at this point.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.037 seconds with 13 queries.