WI-GOV (Trafalgar): Michels +0.7
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September 27, 2022, 10:01:48 PM
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  WI-GOV (Trafalgar): Michels +0.7
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Author Topic: WI-GOV (Trafalgar): Michels +0.7  (Read 519 times)
Calthrina950
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« on: September 23, 2022, 02:49:30 PM »

Trafalgar put out a new poll of Wisconsin's gubernatorial race:



WI-GOV remains a tossup.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #1 on: September 23, 2022, 02:50:14 PM »

Yeah right
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Devout Centrist
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« Reply #2 on: September 23, 2022, 03:25:23 PM »

You know, I have a feeling Trafalgar keeps doing these polls until they get a result they like.
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Duke of York
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« Reply #3 on: September 23, 2022, 03:44:09 PM »

Can they just say everything is a tossup? I no longer take them seriously.
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Ad Astra
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« Reply #4 on: September 23, 2022, 04:05:31 PM »

lol, i think they started doing this in 2020 too. decimal margin polls only in wisconsin.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #5 on: September 23, 2022, 04:25:00 PM »

Can they just say everything is a tossup? I no longer take them seriously.

Don't take a pollster who got it spot on in WI in 2020? Man, this forum just hates Trafalgar, but gushes over polls from Fox which are total garbage or Quinnipiac. Most states they poll other than random solid blue states every once in a while are true toss ups.
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #6 on: September 23, 2022, 04:50:30 PM »

Can they just say everything is a tossup? I no longer take them seriously.

Don't take a pollster who got it spot on in WI in 2020? Man, this forum just hates Trafalgar, but gushes over polls from Fox which are total garbage or Quinnipiac. Most states they poll other than random solid blue states every once in a while are true toss ups.

We hate Trafalgar not because they're generally R-friendly, but because they absolutely refuse to provide any transparency into their methdology -- not even crosstabs from their surveys.  A pollster who won't provide some transparency is not entitled to respect or trust.  Yes, they've gotten some polls right, but a random number generator would get some right too. 

Maybe Trafalgar is the most brilliant pollster ever.  Maybe they use a random number generator.  Maybe they use a dartboard.  Who knows?  Unless they start showing their work, it's just as reasonable to assume they're making up numbers as it is to assume they're great pollsters.

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Duke of York
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« Reply #7 on: September 23, 2022, 05:13:54 PM »

Can they just say everything is a tossup? I no longer take them seriously.

Don't take a pollster who got it spot on in WI in 2020? Man, this forum just hates Trafalgar, but gushes over polls from Fox which are total garbage or Quinnipiac. Most states they poll other than random solid blue states every once in a while are true toss ups.

They have the Attorney General election in New York as toss up. There is zero chance that's accurate.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #8 on: September 23, 2022, 05:17:14 PM »

As I said in their Senate poll thread, I expected the next Wisconsin Trafalgar poll to have Michels up, but this is the best they could find him leading by? This is essentially still the same poll from last time showing a tie. Still a tossup, perhaps even favoring Evers slightly.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #9 on: September 23, 2022, 06:12:58 PM »

Can they just say everything is a tossup? I no longer take them seriously.

Don't take a pollster who got it spot on in WI in 2020? Man, this forum just hates Trafalgar, but gushes over polls from Fox which are total garbage or Quinnipiac. Most states they poll other than random solid blue states every once in a while are true toss ups.

We hate Trafalgar not because they're generally R-friendly, but because they absolutely refuse to provide any transparency into their methdology -- not even crosstabs from their surveys.  A pollster who won't provide some transparency is not entitled to respect or trust.  Yes, they've gotten some polls right, but a random number generator would get some right too. 

Maybe Trafalgar is the most brilliant pollster ever.  Maybe they use a random number generator.  Maybe they use a dartboard.  Who knows?  Unless they start showing their work, it's just as reasonable to assume they're making up numbers as it is to assume they're great pollsters.



Honestly I just care about who is the closest to being right. Quinnipiac has cross tabs and provides transparency but I could care less considering how wrong they usually are and how off their margins are.
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Cyrusman
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« Reply #10 on: September 23, 2022, 06:14:59 PM »

Can they just say everything is a tossup? I no longer take them seriously.

Don't take a pollster who got it spot on in WI in 2020? Man, this forum just hates Trafalgar, but gushes over polls from Fox which are total garbage or Quinnipiac. Most states they poll other than random solid blue states every once in a while are true toss ups.

They have the Attorney General election in New York as toss up. There is zero chance that's accurate.

Yes, I agree with you on that. They have polled some random solid blue states for no good reason and those are off, but the majority of their polls are in actual swing states/toss up races.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #11 on: September 23, 2022, 07:36:37 PM »

Was waiting for the first poll of the cycle to actually have Michels up, and this one and his internal can only find a 0.7% lead at best.
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #12 on: September 23, 2022, 10:25:23 PM »

Can they just say everything is a tossup? I no longer take them seriously.

Don't take a pollster who got it spot on in WI in 2020? Man, this forum just hates Trafalgar, but gushes over polls from Fox which are total garbage or Quinnipiac. Most states they poll other than random solid blue states every once in a while are true toss ups.

We hate Trafalgar not because they're generally R-friendly, but because they absolutely refuse to provide any transparency into their methdology -- not even crosstabs from their surveys.  A pollster who won't provide some transparency is not entitled to respect or trust.  Yes, they've gotten some polls right, but a random number generator would get some right too. 

Maybe Trafalgar is the most brilliant pollster ever.  Maybe they use a random number generator.  Maybe they use a dartboard.  Who knows?  Unless they start showing their work, it's just as reasonable to assume they're making up numbers as it is to assume they're great pollsters.



Honestly I just care about who is the closest to being right. Quinnipiac has cross tabs and provides transparency but I could care less considering how wrong they usually are and how off their margins are.

Both are important. You don't get points for luck.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #13 on: September 24, 2022, 05:39:24 PM »

Can they just say everything is a tossup? I no longer take them seriously.

Don't take a pollster who got it spot on in WI in 2020? Man, this forum just hates Trafalgar, but gushes over polls from Fox which are total garbage or Quinnipiac. Most states they poll other than random solid blue states every once in a while are true toss ups.

We hate Trafalgar not because they're generally R-friendly, but because they absolutely refuse to provide any transparency into their methdology -- not even crosstabs from their surveys.  A pollster who won't provide some transparency is not entitled to respect or trust.  Yes, they've gotten some polls right, but a random number generator would get some right too. 

Maybe Trafalgar is the most brilliant pollster ever.  Maybe they use a random number generator.  Maybe they use a dartboard.  Who knows?  Unless they start showing their work, it's just as reasonable to assume they're making up numbers as it is to assume they're great pollsters.



Honestly I just care about who is the closest to being right. Quinnipiac has cross tabs and provides transparency but I could care less considering how wrong they usually are and how off their margins are.

Both are important. You don't get points for luck.

Going by your criteria, that would mean we should throw out both Trafalgar and Quinnipac, and exclude them from the polling averages. Neither meet the standards demanded by the majority of posters here. That would be the only fair course of action. Of course, such standards would validate Emerson, which is transparent about their methodology and has been one of the more accurate pollsters in recent years.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #14 on: September 24, 2022, 10:43:35 PM »
« Edited: September 24, 2022, 10:54:11 PM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

The problem with Trafalgar and Emerson is that we only had 1 VBM election and their polls have not lined up with other polls in NV, WI and OH,  the ME poll correspondence to the ME Poll that we got in the other survey but Siena just polled WI and Barnes ahead

Change and Baldwin and impact just polled OH Sen and has Ryan leading 47/42, change and impact and Baldwin don't poll NV and Data for Progress polled NV it wasn't Laxalt plus 3 it was Laxalt plus 1

We will all soon find out whom is the most accurate but a pollster is not accurate if a poll finds a candidate within the MOE most of these polls are all within the MOE and no one even in Red leaning states, D's are are gonna give up just because Evers or Barnes or Ryan or CCM are down 4 pts

That's the flaw in the argument about Trafalgar and Emerson is the most accurate because they're all within MOE

WI, OH and NV may be leaning more R than other states but it's all MOE and it's due to GERRYMANDERING not based on merit of Rs but other pollsters haven't found this trend like Emerson and Trafalgar have


Early voting is upon us we can wipe an R lead in Early voting a 3 pt lead in just a snap anyways
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #15 on: September 25, 2022, 12:28:43 AM »

We all know what TRAFALGAR and Emerson are doing trying to push poll to pump up Lake, Johnson and Vance, and Adam Laxalt

The GCB is tied 47/46 R same as NBC news and Rs enjoyed in 2010 a six pt advantage on GCB in 2010
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AntiCrist DeSantis
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« Reply #16 on: September 25, 2022, 02:36:10 AM »

I strongly suspect that Trafalgar has questionable polling methodology and ends up releasing what are essentially educated guesses based on limited surveys, but since educated guesses are better than what most of the polling industry is capable of I'm willing to give Trafalgar the benefit of the doubt until they're way off across the board.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #17 on: September 25, 2022, 09:13:15 AM »
« Edited: September 25, 2022, 09:16:25 AM by Mr.Barkari Sellers »

No the methology is fine but they poll when Early voting goes on and the D base surges in VBM not same day voting and Evers, Ryan and CCM are gonna get a surge of Early voting and provisions ballots and female military vote, military isnt all R either, that's why they will be wrong on Eday, the Early vote not Same day vote as I say over and over again , that's why they were wrong in MI plus1 Trump due to surge of VBM and this is +1 R too

I am anEday judge prepandemic and did polls in college Conservative pollsters sample too many married not single person
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Sir Mohamed 🇺🇸 🇺🇦
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« Reply #18 on: September 25, 2022, 10:29:33 AM »

Given the source, this is actually not a bad poll for Evers. I've grown to feel more optimstic about this race, while my confidence in NV has gone down. Evers is more likely to win than Sisolak, imho.
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Mr.Barkari Sellers
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« Reply #19 on: September 25, 2022, 10:34:00 AM »

SISOLAK is tied and CCM is down 3
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