WI-SEN (Trafalgar): Johnson +2

[politicallefty]

Given the source, a pretty good poll for Barnes.

Opinions on "Trashfalgar" (as you call it) are set in stone at this point, but should we then disregard Marquette, Civiqs, and Emerson, all of which have shown Johnson leading? Especially Marquette, which most consider to be "the gold standard" of Wisconsin here?

Marquette is really the only poll in Wisconsin I take seriously.

Yeah, some specific pollsters really know how to nail their states. In Wisconsin, that's Marquette. In Iowa, you have Ann Selzer (I don't think anyone here has to bring up her final poll before the 2020 election). California used to have the Field Poll, but that unfortunately shut down a few years ago.

With that said, I think most of us expected a result like this from this poll, especially considering their previous one. I don't expect this race to break one way or the other in polling. It'll likely be a toss-up to the end, perhaps slightly tilting one way or the other.

[politicallefty]

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

[politicallefty]

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

It seems like they mess with the runoff law a lot. The Senate runoff in 2008 was four weeks after the general election and only three weeks after in 1992.

[politicallefty]

Didn't they change the runoff law in Georgia so that it's only four weeks now as opposed to the roughly two months back in 2020-2021? It's clear that the long runoff helped Democrats (hence Republicans wanting to change the law right away). I'm not sure which side the shortened runoff benefits this year, especially if control of the Senate is on the line once again. If both GA-Sen and GA-Gov somehow go to a runoff (an unlikely, though very possible, event), things are probably even more confounded.

Yes, it used to be that state-level runoffs were four weeks after Election Day while federal race runoffs had the longer delay.  Now they're both four weeks after.

It seems like they mess with the runoff law a lot. The Senate runoff in 2008 was four weeks after the general election and only three weeks after in 1992.

Yes, they also mess a lot with the run-off requirement. After Wyche Fowler lost the 1992 runoff, Democrats changed the threshold from 50% to 45%, which allowed Max Cleland to avoid a runoff in 1996. After Republicans took control of the governor's mansion and won the legislature, they changed it back to 50%, which they probably regret today.

Oh, I missed that one. History is certainly replete with laws such as these that backfire on those who enact them.

Selzer is pretty much unparalleled.

I certainly will never doubt her again.

You're probably too young to know of the gold standard in California that was the Field Poll.